UFC 228: 4 reasons why Darren Till will beat Tyron Woodley

This Saturday, UFC 228 will see UFC Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley attempt to make the fourth successful defence of his title, as he takes on undefeated English challenger Darren Till. It’s not the fight many fans were expecting – Woodley against interim champ Colby Covington was the expected match-up – but Till has earned his title shot, as he’s coming off a win over former title challenger Stephen Thompson in May.

Can ‘The Gorilla’ be the one to unseat the champion, who’s reigned atop the 170lbs division since his July 2016 knockout of Robbie Lawler? It won’t be easy but I believe Till has some major advantages that he can capitalise on to defeat Woodley and claim the title. Here are 4 of them.

#1: He can apply the pressure to Woodley

Till has made a habit of walking his opponents down and backing them into the fence

For all of his great moments in the UFC – his knockouts of Josh Koscheck and Robbie Lawler for instance – one hallmark of Tyron Woodley’s career in the Octagon has been a clear weakness that shone through in both of his losses there – as well as in his two fights with Stephen Thompson. In layman’s terms, he struggles when an opponent manages to back him up towards the fence, and then struggles to pull the trigger on his strikes, too.

That weakness is why Till could well represent a bad match-up for ‘The Chosen One’. Throughout his six-fight UFC career, Till has made a habit of walking down any opponent he’s faced, backing them up into the cage where they’re usually met by a big left hand or a slashing elbow strike. Against overmatched opponents like Jessin Ayari and Bojan Velickovic this worked brilliantly, but he also finished the super-tough Donald Cerrone within a round by walking him down, too.

It is true that Woodley could find an answer for this style by shooting for double-leg takedowns, but in his fights with Thompson and also against Rory MacDonald – his clearest loss in the UFC – he became too preoccupied with looking for a big counter than with shooting a takedown. And like MacDonald – even more so in fact – Till has a major reach advantage over the champion.

If the Scouser can manage to back Woodley into the fence and keep him there using his long strikes, then he could find a lot of success in the fight.

#2: He’s got a size advantage

Till appeared to have a size advantage over Woodley in a recent staredown

Now, this is somewhat of a controversial area to point at as an advantage for Till, as it’s a well-known fact that he struggles to hit the 170lbs limit for the Welterweight division and in fact missed weight twice recently – he only managed to make 176lbs for his May 2017 fight with Jessin Ayari and then missed by 4lbs this May against Stephen Thompson.

Assuming he can make the weight, though – and admittedly, that’s a big if – ‘The Gorilla’ should live up to his nickname and have a large size advantage over Woodley come fight time. Till has already pointed out in a recent interview that he was surprised by how much bigger than the champion he appeared to be during a staredown between the two at the UFC’s recent 25th Anniversary press conference, and although he admitted Woodley is a “big dude”, he still expects to be bigger in the cage.

Realistically, this should be the first time that Woodley’s been faced with a bigger foe inside the Octagon during his UFC tenure. He’s faced long and rangy Welterweights before like Carlos Condit and Dong Hyun Kim, both of whom had a reach advantage, but they weren’t as broad as Till. The Englishman, in fact, might be the biggest fighter in the division right now, period.

Woodley is a great wrestler, but can he really expect to physically overpower a fighter as big as Till, even with his clear grappling advantage? If he can’t, it could mean trouble for him on Saturday.

#3: Woodley’s coming off a massive layoff – and isn’t getting younger

Woodley hasn't fought since a July 2017 clash with Demian Maia

Despite reeling off a solid three title defences since winning the Welterweight crown from Robbie Lawler in July 2016, it’s actually been over a year since we’ve seen Tyron Woodley inside the Octagon. His last fight was his dull decision victory over Demian Maia at UFC 214, back in July 2017. Since then he’s been on the shelf rehabbing a serious injury – a torn labrum.

During the time that Woodley has been on the shelf, in contrast Till has fought – and won – three times. Sure, that doesn’t always matter – Dominick Cruz proved that so-called cage rust isn’t always an issue by winning the UFC Bantamweight title after well over a year away – but in the world of MMA, time flies. And that means it isn’t just the layoff Woodley needs to contend with.

It’s also a fact that Woodley is 36 years old – over a decade older than Till – and he’s been competing in MMA now for almost a decade. His first loss to Nate Marquardt doesn’t feel that long ago, and yet it was 6 years ago, and he’s been in the UFC now fighting tough opponents for 5 years. For an older fighter who relies so much on speed and athleticism, this kind of layoff is very worrying – especially when he’s facing a hungry young challenger like Till.

It’s also notable that former Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez suffered a torn labrum during his fight with Brock Lesnar back in 2010. And when he returned from a year on the shelf, he suffered his first career loss at the hands of Junior Dos Santos. Could the same happen to Woodley this weekend?

#4: Till is unbelievably confident in his skills

Till exudes absolute confidence in his skills

It’s true that confidence doesn’t always win you fights – if it did, Phil Baroni would’ve won the UFC Middleweight title and Conor McGregor probably would’ve knocked Floyd Mayweather out cold – but it can be a massive bonus for a young fighter like Darren Till in his biggest career fight to date. It can be the difference between say, being willing to walk down a dangerous opponent like Tyron Woodley or being afraid of his punching power.

Till’s confidence also comes off very differently to say, the wild self-promotion of a Chael Sonnen, and it’s even a contrast to the braggadocios, trash-talking style of McGregor himself. ‘The Gorilla’ never comes off like he’s trying to sell himself to the fans as such – he simply appears to be totally, 100% confident that he’s got the skills to take out any man he faces. It’s why, when he yells that he’s not afraid of anyone, that it’s totally believable.

If anything, the confidence that Till exudes comes across less like a professional fighter and more like an on-screen gangster – like the famous Tommy Shelby character from the popular TV series Peaky Blinders. In a UFC filled with plastic trash talkers like Colby Covington, seeing a man as calm and confident as Till is almost jarring.

And that’s why he’s got a major chance of winning on Saturday. It doesn’t feel like a single doubt has ever entered his head, and that’s got to be somewhat off-putting even for a veteran like Woodley. If Till fights as he usually does – believing he’s the best in the world – then he might well become that at UFC 228.