UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2: Predictions and Picks

#3 Carlos Condit vs. Michael Chiesa

How will Michael Chiesa handle a move to 170lbs?

This is a fascinating fight between a former champion at 170lbs who’s fallen on hard times, and a man who simply found getting to 155lbs too difficult at this point in his career. For Condit, it’s a chance to get his career back on track after 4 straight losses, while for Chiesa, it’s a chance to become an instant contender in a new division by knocking off one of its biggest names.

In terms of how they match up, a handful of years ago I’d have been comfortable in saying that Condit has a striking advantage, and despite his downturn, I think he probably still does. Chiesa’s never been a natural kickboxer; despite his lanky frame he’s always tended to use his grappling first, and Condit almost matches his 76” reach and has always chained his strikes together well, unleashing combinations of kicks, long punches, and knees and elbows from in close.

The problem for Condit has always been with his ground game. It’s not that he’s a bad grappler by any means – I’d go as far as to call him fantastic on the ground – but he simply doesn’t have the best takedown defense, largely because he’s all too willing to work off his back for submissions or sweeps. That’d be all well and good if the judges working in MMA didn’t favour the top position so much – but they do, and that tendency to fight off his back cost Condit big fights with Martin Kampmann and Johny Hendricks.

More recently though, not only has his takedown defense still been porous, but he hasn’t been attacking as well from his back either. He was comfortably controlled from the top by Neil Magny a year ago, and was then submitted by Alex Oliveira – albeit in a fight he was arguably winning. It was the first time he’d been submitted since 2006.

That’s worrying for him against Chiesa, who has great takedowns and is excellent at controlling an opponent on the ground. He’s also got one of the nastiest rear naked chokes in the UFC – and he’s used it to submit excellent grapplers like Beneil Dariush and Jim Miller.

Five years ago I’d have taken Condit to damage Chiesa standing and on the ground, while fending off his submission attacks, but now I just can’t trust ‘The Natural Born Killer’. It feels like 16 years of fights – most of them absolute wars – have finally caught up with him, and most likely, it was his insane brawl with Robbie Lawler in early 2016 which pushed him over that edge.

Condit might have some early success with his combinations but at some point, Chiesa is going to secure a clinch and a takedown – and he’ll likely end things with a choke from there.

The Pick: Chiesa via second round submission