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#5 Chad Mendes vs. Alexander Volkanovski
This is an excellent fight at 145lbs; Australia’s Volkanovski is unbeaten in the UFC at 5-0 and he’s been slowly climbing the ranks since his debut – and picked up his biggest win to date over Darren Elkins in July. Mendes meanwhile came back from a USADA suspension in the summer to defeat Myles Jury in impressive fashion – picking up his first win since 2015 in the process.
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For me, this comes down to whether Mendes can comfortably outwrestle Volkanovski. ‘Money’ is one of the best-credentialed wrestlers in the UFC, a Division I All-American who’s never struggled to take his opponents down if he’s wanted to. Volkanovski clearly doesn’t have those credentials, but he’s a powerful guy and he’s easily outwrestled all of his previous opponents.
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The area I’m most intrigued by is standing. Mendes developed an excellent striking game that led him to a series of violent knockouts between his two losses to Jose Aldo, but it could also be argued that the men he beat – the likes of Clay Guida and Cody McKenzie – simply weren’t the best strikers. He did do well on the feet against Aldo in their second fight, but he lost in the end and both Conor McGregor and Frankie Edgar stopped him on the feet.
Volkanovski meanwhile looked fantastic standing against Darren Elkins, destroying him with combinations, but then he hasn’t fought anyone close to the level of Mendes in terms of striking just yet. Nor does he fit the mould of McGregor or Aldo, fighters capable of hitting Mendes from range while ‘Money’ couldn’t catch them in response.
I think this may well come down to whether Volkanovski is really ready for a challenge the size of Mendes. Beating Darren Elkins is one thing and if this were Mendes coming off the McGregor and Edgar losses I’d be tempted to pick the Aussie, but Mendes looked absolutely devastating against Jury – his best showing since his 2015 knockout of Ricardo Lamas. And as he’s already 30 years old, I suspect Volkanovski is already at his ceiling – it’s just a case of finding out where his climb will stop. I think it stops here.
The Pick: Mendes via second-round TKO
