UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes - Predictions and Picks

After a couple of lesser Fight Night cards over the last few weeks, the UFC finally has a genuinely excellent-sounding show on the horizon this weekend. Chicago, Illinois will play host to UFC 238 on Saturday, and with it comes two title fights as well as an insane-sounding Lightweight match between two of the most exciting fighters in the game.

This isn’t a three-fight card, though – we’ve also got what appears to be a mini-tournament to decide the next top contender at 135lbs, as well as a potential title eliminator at 115lbs, and the presence of some of the fastest-rising stars in the sport. Essentially, this should be a hell of a show.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes.

#1 Henry Cejudo vs. Marlon Moraes

Henry Cejudo is looking to become the UFC's latest double champion

Sometimes karma genuinely works in MMA and this is one of those rare instances. Essentially, Marlon Moraes earned a Bantamweight title shot a year ago when he KO’d Jimmie Rivera with a head kick, but of course, once champion TJ Dillashaw dealt with Cody Garbrandt, he then chose to drop to 125lbs to pursue a ‘superfight’ with Flyweight champion Henry Cejudo.

That fight happened in January and in a major shocker, Cejudo took out the much-vaunted Dillashaw in less than a minute with a barrage of strikes. A few weeks later Moraes choked out Raphael Assuncao – the only man to previously beat him in the UFC – to affirm his title credentials, only for the UFC to plan a rematch between Cejudo and Dillashaw, this time with Dillashaw’s title on the line.

Of course, karma then intervened as Dillashaw was outed as an EPO user and subsequently banned for a pretty long time. And thankfully, the UFC saw sense and decided to book this fight between Cejudo and Moraes – clearly the most deserving contenders – for the vacant belt.

It’s a fight that could well have wider implications too when you throw in the future of the Flyweight division; if Cejudo wins there’s definitely a possibility that the UFC could choose to drop the 125lbs division altogether and have ‘The Messenger’ retire that belt to continue as 135lbs champ. If he loses though, I’d expect Flyweight to continue on in the UFC for the foreseeable future. But who’s actually going to win?

Cejudo is a fascinating fighter in that he’s probably the most accomplished amateur wrestler in the UFC right now thanks to his 2008 Olympic gold medal, and yet he doesn’t actually tend to use his wrestling all that much these days. Sure, he’s still capable of taking his opponents down pretty easily – he was the only fighter to really do that to Demetrious Johnson and it was part of the reason he was given the nod over ‘Mighty Mouse’ – but for the most part he tends to strike with his opponents instead, coming out of a karate-esque stance ala Lyoto Machida.

Against Dillashaw that went out of the window as he simply blitzed the then-Bantamweight champ, but I can’t see a repeat of that here simply because I feel like Dillashaw was drawn out from the weight cut and never expected such aggression from Cejudo. The question to me then is how Cejudo deals with the dangerous Muay Thai game of Moraes.

In all honesty, I worry for the Olympian. Moraes is one of the quickest men at 135lbs, able to suddenly switch his opponents off with head kicks and knees as both Rivera and Aljamain Sterling found out in their fights with him. He’s also got arguably the most effective leg kick game in the UFC – with respect to Justin Gaethje – as he simply looks to chop his opponents down and has expert timing to be able to land almost every time.

At 5’6” Moraes isn’t the tallest Bantamweight, but surprisingly he fights quite tall in that he throws out long hooks and jabs, and chains his combinations together while also retaining a tremendous grasp of distance and range in the process. The only times we’ve seen him struggle in the UFC were his first fight with Assuncao and his match with John Dodson, and in all honesty, I thought he beat Assuncao, while Cejudo doesn’t have the footwork or movement that Dodson has.

Given Cejudo showed some issues with low kicks in his fight with Johnson, if Moraes can really focus on attacking the legs early on, it could give him an advantage here. Of course, the problem with throwing leg kicks against a wrestler like Cejudo is the risk of being taken down, but does Moraes really need to worry all that much?

Well, Cejudo is clearly a superior wrestler, but Moraes has never really struggled with wrestlers in his recent fights although he’s fought nobody as good as Cejudo in that area. But on the ground, Moraes owns a legitimate BJJ black belt and was able to tap out a fellow stellar grappler in Assuncao in their fight. Cejudo is a solid submission grappler himself but I’m not sure he’s as good as Moraes in that area, nor has he really shown himself to be a devastating ground-and-pound merchant.

Throw in the fact that I’m not sure how well Cejudo will take to 135lbs – of course he’ll probably enjoy making the weight but whether he’ll possess a speed advantage here is another thing entirely – and I’m leaning towards Moraes here. For me the only way Cejudo can win this one is by taking Moraes down and holding him there every round, and I honestly can’t see him doing that without taking some damage. And when that damage comes I think Moraes can finish him off.

The Pick: Moraes via second round TKO

#2 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Eye

Can Jessica Eye upset Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC Flyweight title?

The second title fight on this card sees Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko looking to make her first successful title defence against Jessica Eye, who – no offense intended – might’ve had the strangest run to a title shot in UFC history, ignoring late replacements. A top Flyweight prior to her UFC run, Eye signed with the promotion in 2013 and made a splash at 135lbs by defeating veteran Sarah Kaufman – marijuana test notwithstanding.

From there however she went on a real slide, going 1-5 in a run that could’ve gotten many fighters cut. Eye just about managed to cling on though, and when 125lbs was introduced to the UFC in 2017, she immediately dropped to her more natural weight and has since gone 3-0. Those wins have all been by close decision though and in reality, this title shot feels more like a mix of a reward for her years of toiling in a higher weight class, and the fact that nobody else has really stood out in the division yet.

At her best, Eye is one of the better strikers in the division. Primarily using a boxing game to pick her opponents apart, she’s got excellent hand speed, footwork and combinations, and she loves nothing more than to trade in the pocket with her opponents – usually coming out on top due to said hand speed and movement. The fact that she’s so boxing-oriented can make her somewhat predictable, but she’s a solid enough grappler too, with some decent takedowns and top control.

The problem for her here is that she’s facing a total monster in Shevchenko. A former professional kickboxer, Shevchenko debuted in the UFC in 2015 with an upset over Kaufman and then used her phenomenal striking to pick apart former Bantamweight champ Holly Holm to win a decision. Her armbar of Julianna Pena proved she was more than just a striker, and realistically, her two losses to Amanda Nunes could easily have gone the other way – she was beating a tired Nunes at the end of their first fight and their second was an incredibly tight split decision.

Somehow she’s looked even better since moving to a more natural 125lbs, too. She’s still got the slick striking game that brought her so much success at Bantamweight, but her natural strength has been more of an asset at Flyweight, as she destroyed the overmatched Priscila Cachoeira on the ground and then primarily used her takedowns and ground control to outpoint Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the vacant title in December.

Essentially, for Eye to win this one she’s going to have to be better than she’s ever been in every single area. She can’t let Shevchenko take her down and work her over from the top, and she’s somehow going to have to use her boxing skill to negate the incredible Muay Thai game of ‘The Bullet’. And in all honesty, I can’t see it happening.

A better fighter from the clinch might be able to outmuscle Shevchenko there I guess, but I don’t think Eye is that fighter and I don’t really see anyone else in the division capable of doing it just yet. For me we might be on the cusp of seeing a really dominant run from Shevchenko similar to that of Demetrious Johnson, Georges St-Pierre or Jon Jones. A finish would go a long way to cementing her as a potential great here but I suspect she’ll simply dominate Eye for the full 25 minutes.

The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision

#3 Donald Cerrone vs. Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone could be an all-time classic

This card already looked excellent even before the addition of this fight, but this is the one that really pushes it into the territory of one of the best UFC shows in history, on paper at least. Considering we’re just a few weeks removed from some apparent serious mental issues – which I’ll try not to touch on here – I’m amazed that Ferguson is back so soon, but then again he’s never been a regular kind of fighter. And of course, Cerrone is as crazy as it gets – he only fought Al Iaquinta a month ago!

Essentially, if the winner of this one doesn’t get a shot at the winner of Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier – which I hope to god actually happens in September – then there’s no justice in MMA. But who will come out on top in a battle of two of MMA’s most exciting – and most wild – fighters?

Personally, I’m favouring Ferguson, assuming his head is properly in the game now. Sure, he leaves himself wide open to taking damage in practically every moment of every fight he’s in, but he can also absorb damage like few others – how he ever survived the barrage Anthony Pettis hit him with is a mystery, but he did, and moments later he turned the heat up so much that ‘Showtime’ simply wilted under the pressure.

Cerrone is probably a better striker than ‘El Cucuy’ from a technical and traditional standpoint; he throws nasty leg kicks and can easily switch those into head kicks, he’s got some of the best knees in the game, particularly his step-in knee that he uses to counter takedowns, and he also possesses a ramrod jab which he uses to set up his combinations. But he’s also been stopped by strikes on numerous occasions and if an opponent can corral him and really open up with a barrage, he does have a tendency to fold.

If the fight hits the ground, it may well be somewhat of a wash; both men love to attack from all positions, meaning that neither is likely to simply hold the other one down and look for ground-and-pound, and even if they do, it’s not likely to be a tactic that’ll succeed. Either man could catch the other in a quick transition but if one is more likely to pull that off, it’s Ferguson, who hasn’t been tapped since 2009 and has a history of quickly catching opponents in chokes using his long arms.

Cerrone does have a couple of ways to win, I think; if he can really establish his leg kicks, then Ferguson may struggle as he only went through a serious knee injury last year. And realistically, with his recent mental health problems, ‘El Cucuy’ might not properly have his head in the game. But if both men come in as the best version of themselves, then I can’t help but pick Ferguson.

Simply put, ‘Cowboy’ is a fantastic fighter; a UFC legend and one of the most exciting men to watch in the history of MMA, but he’s not as durable as he once was and I’d argue Ferguson is better in all areas and he’s also a straight-up killer inside the cage, a guy who seems to be capable of absorbing ridiculous punishment to give even worse back. He’s going to push Cerrone like few have done before and I can’t see ‘Cowboy’ not wilting under the pressure.

The Pick: Ferguson via second round TKO

#4 Petr Yan vs. Jimmie Rivera

Is a Bantamweight title shot in the future for Petr Yan?

This is the first of two potential title eliminators at Bantamweight on this card, and if I’m honest, I probably would’ve had Aljamain Sterling vs. Pedro Munhoz on the main card as I feel like the winner of that one would be closer to a title shot. I could be way off there, though; Yan has been on a serious run and shellacked John Dodson last time out, so a win here could well lead ‘No Mercy’ into a fight with the Moraes/Cejudo winner.

The Russian is an absolute monster of a fighter; he pushes a terrifying pace that caused even the energetic Dodson to wilt, and he’s an incredibly skilled, boxing-based striker who has the movement and defensive talent to absorb and dodge his opponent’s offense and hit them with everything in his arsenal in return.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Yan is his ability to fight as both an aggressor or as a counter-striker. Other fighters struggle to switch – Dodson for instance clearly has issues if he’s up against another counter-striker – but Yan destroyed the ultra-aggressive Douglas Silva de Andrade on the counter in their fight and then switched to be the aggressor to hunt down Dodson.

Admittedly, Yan’s aggression can sometimes work against him – he was dropped by a counter from Dodson in their fight and he appeared to slow down during his beatdown of Jin Soo Son, but to be fair, that was the equivalent of fighting a heavy bag for the Russian, and he also recovered excellently against Dodson despite the punching power of ‘The Magician’.

Rivera meanwhile might be one of the more unlucky fighters on the roster; a ridiculous 20-fight win streak including victories over Urijah Faber, Pedro Munhoz and Thomas Almeida might’ve netted him a title shot in years past, but in the money-focused modern UFC he simply didn’t have enough personality to shine through, and then in his biggest fight to date he was knocked out violently by Marlon Moraes.

‘El Terror’ bounced back with a win over John Dodson – a horrible fight that saw both counter-based strikers struggle to impose themselves and Rivera essentially win on slightly more volume – but was then beaten by Aljamain Sterling, who largely used the threat of his takedowns to also land the superior strikes on the New Yorker.

This one is quite tricky to call in that Yan will quite possibly play into Rivera’s hands if he comes out aggressively, as Rivera is a genuinely excellent counter-striker and Yan doesn’t offer the grappling threat that Sterling did. But then I’m not sure that Rivera has the speed of Dodson even on the counter, and Yan simply walked him down and destroyed him with aggression and volume.

I’m leaning towards Yan here just because Rivera to me is very similar to Dodson; he’s a more active fighter than ‘The Magician’ but he doesn’t have the speed and raw athleticism that Dodson’s blessed with. I can see Yan perhaps taking a couple of nasty counters, but I don’t think Rivera’s got enough to put him away and if ‘No Mercy’ can put the kind of volume he’s put on his previous opponents, then ‘El Terror’ is likely in deep trouble.

The Pick: Yan via third round TKO

#5 Tai Tuivasa vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Tai Tuivasa will be looking for a knockout against Blagoy Ivanov

The placing of this fight on the main card – above a pair of fantastic pairings in Aljamain Sterling vs. Pedro Munhoz and Tatiana Suarez vs. Nina Ansaroff – is a risk by the UFC, as at its best, it could be an ultra-exciting brawl with a quick knockout, but at its worst, it could turn into a slow-paced slop-fest that nobody really wants to see.

Despite calling out Justin Willis since ‘Big Pretty’ beat his mentor Mark Hunt in December, Tuivasa has instead been matched with the tough Bulgarian Ivanov as his first fight back following the first loss of his career – a TKO to Junior Dos Santos. There was no shame in losing to JDS for Tuivasa, as he actually fought well and had the former champion in trouble before getting too wild in the second round.

The problem for the Aussie is that the JDS loss showed future opponents – including Ivanov – some worrying holes in his game. If he’d been cleanly knocked out by Dos Santos’s big right hand then it would’ve been one thing, but he actually seemed to recover from the shot; instead he simply couldn’t defend once JDS began to hit him from the mount.

To me that shows that while he’s a very good striker, has a lot of power and he’s ultra-athletic despite his size and shape, Tuivasa’s ground game probably has a lot to be desired. He’s still very inexperienced at 8-1 and simply hasn’t faced a top-level grappler yet, which to me is very worrying when it comes to this fight.

Ivanov thus far in his UFC career has appeared to be a plodding brawler with heavy hands, and sure, the majority of his MMA fights have seen him either club his opponents with those heavy punches or lose to more fleet-footed opposition – like Dos Santos in his UFC debut – but he’s actually a tremendous grappler with a background in sambo, and he could be one of the more underrated wrestlers in the division.

Worse for Tuivasa, Ivanov has also never been TKO’d in his career and lasted 5 rounds with Dos Santos without really being hurt or knocked down. Sure, the Bulgarian isn’t the quickest fighter, but he’s big, tough and can take a shot. That could bode well for him in this fight as he may be able to turn Tuivasa’s aggression against him, and if he can clinch with the big Aussie and drag him to the ground, Tuivasa’s weak ground game could be exposed.

I’d probably be willing to pick Tuivasa if Ivanov’s chin was compromised, but to me he’s equally as tough as the Aussie – his head looks like a fire hydrant – and while he’s a slower fighter than ‘Bam Bam’ I’m not sure Tuivasa can avoid being clinched and dragged to the ground. And if Ivanov gets on top, after seeing Tuivasa’s ground defence against Dos Santos I’m not convinced he can survive.

The Pick: Ivanov via first round submission

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

Tatiana Suarez could net herself a title shot with a win over Nina Ansaroff

The main portion of prelim fights for this card will be shown on the ESPN network, and to be honest, the four fights on offer are arguably better than the cards that the UFC has shown on ESPN thus far in their deal!

Headlining is a likely title eliminator at Strawweight between Tatiana Suarez and Nina Ansaroff. Suarez, the winner of the 23rd season of TUF, is a former Olympic-level wrestler and she’s used that skill to absolutely dominate every opponent she’s faced thus far in her career. Counting TUF she’s 10-0 and most recently destroyed former champion Carla Esparza. Essentially, nobody’s been able to stop her takedown, and she’s equally ruthless with ground-and-pound and submissions.

Ansaroff – the partner of UFC Bantamweight/Featherweight champ Amanda Nunes – has been on a stirring run recently, upsetting former title challenger Claudia Gadelha and contender Randa Markos, but I just can’t see her stopping Suarez’s takedown as I suspect Suarez will eventually hold the title in this weight class. Suarez via second round submission is my pick.

At Bantamweight, Aljamain Sterling faces Pedro Munhoz in a fight that could well decide the next title challenger. Both men are coming off huge wins; Sterling thoroughly outpointed Jimmie Rivera in the best performance of his career, while Munhoz knocked out former champion Cody Garbrandt. It’s a tricky fight to call really, but for me Munhoz’s biggest win was a gift from Garbrandt’s poor fight IQ, while Sterling has finally seemed to click, finally using his athletic gifts to link his striking with his tremendous grappling game. I like Sterling to win a decision here.

Strawweights Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Alexa Grasso will be looking to turn around recent slides, as Kowalkiewicz has lost two in a row and Grasso hasn’t fought since a loss to Tatiana Suarez last May. It’s a tricky one to pick but I like Kowalkiewicz’s slick counter striking and clinch work to pull her through a tough outing, probably by decision.

Finally Featherweights Ricardo Lamas and Calvin Kattar throw down, with Lamas looking to continue his rise back to the top and Kattar trying to break into the upper echelon of the division. A Kattar win would be better for the division but I’m not sure if he has enough to deal with the grappling skill of Lamas. With that said, Lamas is an ageing fighter now and his chin has been cracked before, so I’m taking the slight upset with Kattar winning by KO.

#7 The Prelims: Fight Pass card

Popular striker Angela Hill headlines the Fight Pass portion of the card

Even the UFC Fight Pass portion of this event looks good. At Strawweight, exciting striker Angela Hill faces Chinese prospect Xiaonan Yan. Yan is 3-0 in the UFC thus far but hasn’t faced someone with Hill’s striking skill yet, and ‘Overkill’ has steadily improved the rest of her game, too. Hill by decision is my pick.

Darren Stewart returns at Middleweight to face Bevon Lewis, who was last seen being knocked out by Uriah Hall. Stewart will hope for another KO, but his ground game looked very suspect in his last fight, a loss to Edmen Shahbazyan. With that said, Lewis doesn’t look like a stellar grappler and his love of exchanging in the clinch might play into the Brit’s hands. I’ll go Stewart via TKO.

Finally, Flyweights Katlyn Chookagian and Joanne Calderwood face off, with Scotland’s ‘JoJo’ aiming for her third win in a row at 125lbs. I’ve got a lot of worries about Calderwood’s chin, but I’m not sure Chookagian has the punching power to really test her there, and in terms of a pure striking match I like the excellent Muay Thai of Calderwood to pull her through for a decision.