UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes - Predictions and Picks

#2 Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Eye

Can Jessica Eye upset Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC Flyweight title?

The second title fight on this card sees Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko looking to make her first successful title defence against Jessica Eye, who – no offense intended – might’ve had the strangest run to a title shot in UFC history, ignoring late replacements. A top Flyweight prior to her UFC run, Eye signed with the promotion in 2013 and made a splash at 135lbs by defeating veteran Sarah Kaufman – marijuana test notwithstanding.

From there however she went on a real slide, going 1-5 in a run that could’ve gotten many fighters cut. Eye just about managed to cling on though, and when 125lbs was introduced to the UFC in 2017, she immediately dropped to her more natural weight and has since gone 3-0. Those wins have all been by close decision though and in reality, this title shot feels more like a mix of a reward for her years of toiling in a higher weight class, and the fact that nobody else has really stood out in the division yet.

At her best, Eye is one of the better strikers in the division. Primarily using a boxing game to pick her opponents apart, she’s got excellent hand speed, footwork and combinations, and she loves nothing more than to trade in the pocket with her opponents – usually coming out on top due to said hand speed and movement. The fact that she’s so boxing-oriented can make her somewhat predictable, but she’s a solid enough grappler too, with some decent takedowns and top control.

The problem for her here is that she’s facing a total monster in Shevchenko. A former professional kickboxer, Shevchenko debuted in the UFC in 2015 with an upset over Kaufman and then used her phenomenal striking to pick apart former Bantamweight champ Holly Holm to win a decision. Her armbar of Julianna Pena proved she was more than just a striker, and realistically, her two losses to Amanda Nunes could easily have gone the other way – she was beating a tired Nunes at the end of their first fight and their second was an incredibly tight split decision.

Somehow she’s looked even better since moving to a more natural 125lbs, too. She’s still got the slick striking game that brought her so much success at Bantamweight, but her natural strength has been more of an asset at Flyweight, as she destroyed the overmatched Priscila Cachoeira on the ground and then primarily used her takedowns and ground control to outpoint Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win the vacant title in December.

Essentially, for Eye to win this one she’s going to have to be better than she’s ever been in every single area. She can’t let Shevchenko take her down and work her over from the top, and she’s somehow going to have to use her boxing skill to negate the incredible Muay Thai game of ‘The Bullet’. And in all honesty, I can’t see it happening.

A better fighter from the clinch might be able to outmuscle Shevchenko there I guess, but I don’t think Eye is that fighter and I don’t really see anyone else in the division capable of doing it just yet. For me we might be on the cusp of seeing a really dominant run from Shevchenko similar to that of Demetrious Johnson, Georges St-Pierre or Jon Jones. A finish would go a long way to cementing her as a potential great here but I suspect she’ll simply dominate Eye for the full 25 minutes.

The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision