UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes - Predictions and Picks

#3 Donald Cerrone vs. Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone could be an all-time classic

This card already looked excellent even before the addition of this fight, but this is the one that really pushes it into the territory of one of the best UFC shows in history, on paper at least. Considering we’re just a few weeks removed from some apparent serious mental issues – which I’ll try not to touch on here – I’m amazed that Ferguson is back so soon, but then again he’s never been a regular kind of fighter. And of course, Cerrone is as crazy as it gets – he only fought Al Iaquinta a month ago!

Essentially, if the winner of this one doesn’t get a shot at the winner of Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Dustin Poirier – which I hope to god actually happens in September – then there’s no justice in MMA. But who will come out on top in a battle of two of MMA’s most exciting – and most wild – fighters?

Personally, I’m favouring Ferguson, assuming his head is properly in the game now. Sure, he leaves himself wide open to taking damage in practically every moment of every fight he’s in, but he can also absorb damage like few others – how he ever survived the barrage Anthony Pettis hit him with is a mystery, but he did, and moments later he turned the heat up so much that ‘Showtime’ simply wilted under the pressure.

Cerrone is probably a better striker than ‘El Cucuy’ from a technical and traditional standpoint; he throws nasty leg kicks and can easily switch those into head kicks, he’s got some of the best knees in the game, particularly his step-in knee that he uses to counter takedowns, and he also possesses a ramrod jab which he uses to set up his combinations. But he’s also been stopped by strikes on numerous occasions and if an opponent can corral him and really open up with a barrage, he does have a tendency to fold.

If the fight hits the ground, it may well be somewhat of a wash; both men love to attack from all positions, meaning that neither is likely to simply hold the other one down and look for ground-and-pound, and even if they do, it’s not likely to be a tactic that’ll succeed. Either man could catch the other in a quick transition but if one is more likely to pull that off, it’s Ferguson, who hasn’t been tapped since 2009 and has a history of quickly catching opponents in chokes using his long arms.

Cerrone does have a couple of ways to win, I think; if he can really establish his leg kicks, then Ferguson may struggle as he only went through a serious knee injury last year. And realistically, with his recent mental health problems, ‘El Cucuy’ might not properly have his head in the game. But if both men come in as the best version of themselves, then I can’t help but pick Ferguson.

Simply put, ‘Cowboy’ is a fantastic fighter; a UFC legend and one of the most exciting men to watch in the history of MMA, but he’s not as durable as he once was and I’d argue Ferguson is better in all areas and he’s also a straight-up killer inside the cage, a guy who seems to be capable of absorbing ridiculous punishment to give even worse back. He’s going to push Cerrone like few have done before and I can’t see ‘Cowboy’ not wilting under the pressure.

The Pick: Ferguson via second round TKO