UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes - Predictions and Picks

#4 Petr Yan vs. Jimmie Rivera

Is a Bantamweight title shot in the future for Petr Yan?

This is the first of two potential title eliminators at Bantamweight on this card, and if I’m honest, I probably would’ve had Aljamain Sterling vs. Pedro Munhoz on the main card as I feel like the winner of that one would be closer to a title shot. I could be way off there, though; Yan has been on a serious run and shellacked John Dodson last time out, so a win here could well lead ‘No Mercy’ into a fight with the Moraes/Cejudo winner.

The Russian is an absolute monster of a fighter; he pushes a terrifying pace that caused even the energetic Dodson to wilt, and he’s an incredibly skilled, boxing-based striker who has the movement and defensive talent to absorb and dodge his opponent’s offense and hit them with everything in his arsenal in return.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Yan is his ability to fight as both an aggressor or as a counter-striker. Other fighters struggle to switch – Dodson for instance clearly has issues if he’s up against another counter-striker – but Yan destroyed the ultra-aggressive Douglas Silva de Andrade on the counter in their fight and then switched to be the aggressor to hunt down Dodson.

Admittedly, Yan’s aggression can sometimes work against him – he was dropped by a counter from Dodson in their fight and he appeared to slow down during his beatdown of Jin Soo Son, but to be fair, that was the equivalent of fighting a heavy bag for the Russian, and he also recovered excellently against Dodson despite the punching power of ‘The Magician’.

Rivera meanwhile might be one of the more unlucky fighters on the roster; a ridiculous 20-fight win streak including victories over Urijah Faber, Pedro Munhoz and Thomas Almeida might’ve netted him a title shot in years past, but in the money-focused modern UFC he simply didn’t have enough personality to shine through, and then in his biggest fight to date he was knocked out violently by Marlon Moraes.

‘El Terror’ bounced back with a win over John Dodson – a horrible fight that saw both counter-based strikers struggle to impose themselves and Rivera essentially win on slightly more volume – but was then beaten by Aljamain Sterling, who largely used the threat of his takedowns to also land the superior strikes on the New Yorker.

This one is quite tricky to call in that Yan will quite possibly play into Rivera’s hands if he comes out aggressively, as Rivera is a genuinely excellent counter-striker and Yan doesn’t offer the grappling threat that Sterling did. But then I’m not sure that Rivera has the speed of Dodson even on the counter, and Yan simply walked him down and destroyed him with aggression and volume.

I’m leaning towards Yan here just because Rivera to me is very similar to Dodson; he’s a more active fighter than ‘The Magician’ but he doesn’t have the speed and raw athleticism that Dodson’s blessed with. I can see Yan perhaps taking a couple of nasty counters, but I don’t think Rivera’s got enough to put him away and if ‘No Mercy’ can put the kind of volume he’s put on his previous opponents, then ‘El Terror’ is likely in deep trouble.

The Pick: Yan via third round TKO