UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes - Predictions and Picks

#5 Tai Tuivasa vs. Blagoy Ivanov

Tai Tuivasa will be looking for a knockout against Blagoy Ivanov

The placing of this fight on the main card – above a pair of fantastic pairings in Aljamain Sterling vs. Pedro Munhoz and Tatiana Suarez vs. Nina Ansaroff – is a risk by the UFC, as at its best, it could be an ultra-exciting brawl with a quick knockout, but at its worst, it could turn into a slow-paced slop-fest that nobody really wants to see.

Despite calling out Justin Willis since ‘Big Pretty’ beat his mentor Mark Hunt in December, Tuivasa has instead been matched with the tough Bulgarian Ivanov as his first fight back following the first loss of his career – a TKO to Junior Dos Santos. There was no shame in losing to JDS for Tuivasa, as he actually fought well and had the former champion in trouble before getting too wild in the second round.

The problem for the Aussie is that the JDS loss showed future opponents – including Ivanov – some worrying holes in his game. If he’d been cleanly knocked out by Dos Santos’s big right hand then it would’ve been one thing, but he actually seemed to recover from the shot; instead he simply couldn’t defend once JDS began to hit him from the mount.

To me that shows that while he’s a very good striker, has a lot of power and he’s ultra-athletic despite his size and shape, Tuivasa’s ground game probably has a lot to be desired. He’s still very inexperienced at 8-1 and simply hasn’t faced a top-level grappler yet, which to me is very worrying when it comes to this fight.

Ivanov thus far in his UFC career has appeared to be a plodding brawler with heavy hands, and sure, the majority of his MMA fights have seen him either club his opponents with those heavy punches or lose to more fleet-footed opposition – like Dos Santos in his UFC debut – but he’s actually a tremendous grappler with a background in sambo, and he could be one of the more underrated wrestlers in the division.

Worse for Tuivasa, Ivanov has also never been TKO’d in his career and lasted 5 rounds with Dos Santos without really being hurt or knocked down. Sure, the Bulgarian isn’t the quickest fighter, but he’s big, tough and can take a shot. That could bode well for him in this fight as he may be able to turn Tuivasa’s aggression against him, and if he can clinch with the big Aussie and drag him to the ground, Tuivasa’s weak ground game could be exposed.

I’d probably be willing to pick Tuivasa if Ivanov’s chin was compromised, but to me he’s equally as tough as the Aussie – his head looks like a fire hydrant – and while he’s a slower fighter than ‘Bam Bam’ I’m not sure Tuivasa can avoid being clinched and dragged to the ground. And if Ivanov gets on top, after seeing Tuivasa’s ground defence against Dos Santos I’m not convinced he can survive.

The Pick: Ivanov via first round submission