UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#4 Luke Rockhold vs. Jan Blachowicz

Luke Rockhold will be hoping for a successful debut at 205lbs on Saturday

The 205lbs debut of former UFC Middleweight kingpin Rockhold has been a long time coming – he hasn’t actually fought since his February 2018 loss to Yoel Romero in fact – but we’re finally getting it this weekend. And if he can beat Blachowicz, who was on the verge of a title shot before falling to Thiago Santos in February, he shouldn’t be too far away from a big showdown with Jon Jones.

But can he get past Blachowicz? It’s a tougher fight than it might sound on paper. On paper, Rockhold is practically the perfect fighter. He’s got a tremendous striking game, making full use of a long, 77” reach with heavy kicks to the head and body as well as long punches from the outside, and on the ground, he’s phenomenal, with a top game as good as anyone in the UFC. His cardio is excellent too, as he was able to take out Chris Weidman down the stretch despite Weidman pushing a horrendous pace early on.

Unfortunately, all of that talent has also given Rockhold the penchant for being his own worst enemy. There’s no way he should ever have lost to Michael Bisping, for instance – he whitewashed the Brit in their first fight in 2014 – but he chose to leave his hands hanging by his waist in the rematch and paid the consequences.

His loss to Vitor Belfort was a little different – facing a steroid-fuelled monster, Rockhold was always going to be in trouble – but his tendency to hang his hands also led to his violent KO at the hands of Romero. It isn’t that his chin is outright weak; it’s more that he’s allowed opponents to hit him cleanly on the jaw – something that doesn’t bode well for any fighter.

Blachowicz is an interesting opponent for him because while he’s limited enough to be a relatively simple first win for Rockhold in his new division, he’s also got the tools to shut the AKA fighter down if he gives him the chance. A heavy hitter with a similar striking game to Rockhold – he loves the body kick as Ilir Latifi learned – he’s become more nuanced over the last few years, developing a ramrod jab and a stronger ground game. That was enough to win him 4 fights in a row before his loss to Santos – the first time he’d been knocked out in his career.

Where he tends to suffer, though, is on the ground. Sure, he’s gotten better there and even picked up two submission wins in the UFC during that four-fight run, but Gustafsson, Corey Anderson and Patrick Cummins all grounded him and kept him there, beating him up with simple strikes with little offence in return from the Polish fighter.

While Rockhold isn’t as good of a wrestler as those three, he’s probably better from the top than all of them, particularly if he can pass into the mounted position, and I’m honestly not sure that Blachowicz can keep him from taking him down, particularly as his clinch game is a bit of a weak area too – Jimi Manuwa outworked him from there during their first fight.

As long as Rockhold fights smartly here – as in, he doesn’t come out hanging his hands and acting too cockily – this should definitely be a winnable fight for him. If he decides to strike with Blachowicz it could be a coin flip, but if he decides to go for the clinch and look to take the Pole down, it could actually turn out to be quite one-sided. I’m willing to bet on Rockhold fighting smart this time – if he doesn’t, any chance of him climbing back up the ladder goes straight down the drain.

The Pick: Rockhold via first round submission