UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#5 Diego Sanchez vs. Michael Chiesa

Can Diego Sanchez really pick up his third win in a row over Michael Chiesa?

Okay, so I’ll get it out of the way early on and say that Diego Sanchez – along with Alistair Overeem – is probably my all-time favourite fighter. I’d have maybe 5 of his fights in my 10 all-time favourites, even. But to see him on a UFC main card at aged 37 with almost 15 years of UFC experience in the bank is a huge shock, and the only thing more shocking is the fact that he’s somehow on a two-fight win streak.

‘The Nightmare’ has essentially looked finished for some time, and it’s a testament to his insane heart and will that he’s still hanging in near the top of the UFC. His struggles started back in 2012 or thereabouts when his game – which relies heavily on scrambling – became a little exposed, meaning his opponents could stop his takedown and take advantage of his overly aggressive but crude striking, but some time off from 2014 to 2015 seemed to rejuvenate him somewhat as he returned in 2016 with 2 solid wins over Jim Miller and Marcin Held.

Bad losses to Al Iaquinta and Matt Brown in 2017 seemed to usher him to a likely end, though, as his once-iron chin appeared to be well and truly cracked. But then Sanchez came back with wins over Craig White and Mickey Gall, showing that while his striking and durability are no longer there, his grappling remains incredibly formidable.

That’s why I’m actually giving him a shot here against Chiesa. Sanchez is a man whose best weight might lie in that mythical 165lbs weight class, as he’s floated between Lightweight and Welterweight for years now, and it’s been against larger 170lbers like Jake Ellenberger and Jon Fitch where he’s really struggled. Chiesa is a big dude, but he’s also fought most of his career at 155lbs, and doesn’t really fall into that category of powerful wrestlers, even if he’s a great grappler.

The fact is also that for all of Sanchez’s wear and tear, he’s never truly been outgrappled in the UFC outside of that fight with Fitch, who was a genuinely huge 170lber (and a fantastic fighter) at the time. Even noted grapplers like Held, Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan and Paulo Thiago couldn’t handle ‘The Nightmare’ on the ground. Don’t forget this is a man who was outgrappling black belts in his younger days before he even started wearing a gi and earning BJJ belts himself.

And Chiesa is of course almost a pure grappler. Sure, he’s not a horrible striker, but he’s not a violent knockout artist like Iaquinta or Brown, the last two men to flatline Sanchez. In fact, Chiesa doesn’t actually have a KO or TKO to his name in 19 professional fights, and while he did TKO James Vick and Justin Lawrence during his TUF run, both wins came from the mount – a position he’s unlikely to find himself in on Saturday.

Sure, simply due to Sanchez’s advanced age and the amount of damage he’s taken, Chiesa should be the favourite here. After all he did look great when he submitted Carlos Condit last December. But I just can’t help but favour Sanchez in a grappling-based fight, which is what this is likely to be. I can’t see Chiesa submitting him or dominating him positionally, and even at 37, Diego just doesn’t get tired like normal fighters do.

Call me crazy but I’m going with the upset here. Chiesa has been outfoxed on the ground before – both Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis submitted him, as did Jorge Masvidal – and while he’s undoubtedly skilled, styles make fights and this feels like the right clash for Diego. Hopefully they won’t put him against a striker next time out!

The Pick: Sanchez via unanimous decision