UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic II - Predictions and Picks

#5 Derek Brunson vs. Ian Heinisch

Derek Brunson remains one of the Middleweight division's most powerful gatekeepers

It’s always nice to see an unexpected fighter make some waves in the UFC, and Ian Heinisch definitely fits that bill. Brought in as a late replacement for Tom Breese to face veteran Cezar Ferreira last year after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series, ‘The Hurricane’ surprised everyone by both outstriking and outgrappling ‘Mutante’ to take a clear decision.

Antonio Carlos Junior looked like a far tougher match for him earlier this year, but again, Heinisch came through; ‘Shoeface’ dominated him in the first round only for Heinisch to survive the onslaught, and from there his sheer toughness and powerful wrestling took over as he beat up the Brazilian for a clear-cut decision.

Derek Brunson is a different type of opponent entirely, though. Sure, it’s clear at this stage that the StrikeForce veteran won’t ever be a genuine title contender, but he might just be the toughest gatekeeper there is at 185lbs.

An excellent wrestler, Brunson began his UFC tenure largely as a dull, blanketing fighter, but somewhere around 2015 he discovered some serious knockout power, and since then he’s mixed his striking and wrestling together with devastating consequences for a lot of his opponents.

The left hook – either as an attacking haymaker or on the counter – is usually Brunson’s weapon of choice, and he’s used it to fell the likes of Lyoto Machida, Dan Kelly and Uriah Hall in the Octagon.

Most recently he fell back on his strong wrestling and clinch game to beat Elias Theodorou, and while it wasn’t an entertaining fight, it stood as a reminder that he’s more than a simple power puncher.

However, Brunson’s weaknesses have been exposed plenty of times too. The most notable of those weaknesses? When faced with an opponent he perceives as a better striker – think Robert Whittaker or Israel Adesanya – he tends to rush his attacks in an attempt to either land a haymaker or force a clinch, and that leaves him wide open for counters. It’s why both of those fighters, as well as Jacare Souza were able to knock him out with relative ease.

Can Heinisch have the same success? I’m honestly not convinced he can. Adesanya’s timing is something that nobody else in the division possesses, and Whittaker has the kind of striking nuances that are incredibly hard to prep for.

Souza isn’t nearly as good a striker as either of those men but his incredible ground game always made him a tricky match for Brunson and it looked like Brunson was wary of the takedown, which led directly to him being open for the knockout.

More to the point, both of Heinisch’s Octagon successes have come directly due to his opponent gassing out; both Ferreira and Carlos Junior were arguably beating ‘The Hurricane’ until they ran out of steam, and Brunson isn’t likely to do that, particularly if he goes down the grappling route.

I just can’t see Heinisch being able to outwrestle Brunson in this fight, and that doesn’t bode well for him.

In the end Heinisch is probably closer to a Dan Kelly or Roan Carneiro than he is Whittaker or Adesanya, and while he’ll probably continue to have a solid UFC career against fighters lower on the totem pole, there’s a reason that Brunson only ever loses to truly elite fighters.

Heinisch might be able to tag him if he gets too wild but even then I don’t think he’s got the power to put him away. A left hook should end ‘The Hurricane’ probably in the first round.

The Pick: Brunson via first-round KO