UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier - Predictions and Picks

#2 Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder

Edson Barboza defeated Paul Felder in their first meeting in 2015

No offense to either of these two fighters, who are both fantastic to watch for the most part, but this is one of the weaker semi-main events we’re likely to find in 2019. That’s of course because the UFC are banking on the drawing power of Khabib being the selling point of this show, but even so – for a marquee pay-per-view they should really be doing a bit better in my opinion.

Anyhow – this is a rematch of a 2015 fight that saw Barboza claim a largely clear decision win over Felder, who it must be said, was probably out of his depth at that time. ‘The Irish Dragon’ only had two UFC fights to his name and while one was super-impressive – a spinning back fist KO of Danny Castillo – a flashy win over an aging opponent simply wasn’t enough to prepare him for the monster that was Barboza.

I use the term ‘was’ purposely because I honestly worry that the Barboza who was once one of the most feared 155lbers on the planet is now gone. Since 2017, ‘Junior’ is 1-3 in the Octagon, and two of those losses were the kind that can change a career for the worst. Firstly he was beaten to a pulp by Khabib Nurmagomedov, and then just four months later Kevin Lee used Khabib’s blueprint to do the same thing to the Brazilian.

Barboza rebounded by beating Dan Hooker in what was perhaps the single most criminal fight in UFC history – poor Hooker was brutalized and the fight could’ve been stopped four or five times before it mercifully was, late in the third round – but even then, he still took shots from the Kiwi that the pre-Khabib version probably wouldn’t have absorbed. Most recently, Justin Gaethje knocked him senseless in just over two minutes – the first time we’d seen Barboza outright knocked out in his 9-year UFC tenure.

Felder meanwhile is pretty much a better version of the one that lost to Barboza in 2015. He always did have a remarkably smooth striking style, but back then he tended to rely on big shots and wild spinning attacks a little too much. Now though, he seems a little sharper, a little more pinpoint, and his clinch work has notably improved to the point where his elbows from close quarters are incredibly dangerous.

His only two recent-ish losses? A doctor stoppage to the massively underrated Francisco Trinaldo in 2016, and more recently, a close loss to the much larger Mike Perry – a rare outing at 170lbs for Felder – that saw Perry win mainly by virtue of his harder-hitting style. Most recently Felder dealt impressively with the lanky style of James Vick, using leg kicks to slow him down and managing to tag him on numerous occasions despite having a reach disadvantage.

The 2015 version of the fight was a clear win for Barboza, but it was also closer than a 30-27 score would seem; Barboza definitely outstruck Felder, but he never came close to finishing him and took plenty of shots himself. The big difference? Largely Barboza’s superior speed. But after absorbing another 4 years of wear and tear, including some crazy wars and beatings, I wonder if he’s even that fast any more.

Throw in the fact that Barboza’s Achilles heel – issues with opponents who look to back him up aggressively and walk him down, and who can also avoid his counters – is now there for all to see and I think this is a winnable fight for Felder. Assuming he doesn’t come out passively and really pushes the pace of the fight I think he can get into Barboza’s face and take him out surprisingly early.

The Pick: Felder via first-round TKO