UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier - Predictions and Picks

#4 Curtis Blaydes vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov

Curtis Blaydes has become known for ragdolling his opponents

At one point it looked like 2019 was going to be the year Curtis Blaydes found himself challenging for the UFC Heavyweight title. He’d beaten Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem impressively and all he had to do was take out an apparently gunshy Francis Ngannou, and a shot at Daniel Cormier was his. But to everyone’s shock Ngannou rediscovered his mojo and knocked Blaydes out in less than a minute last November, sending ‘Razor’ back to the drawing board.

Perhaps that’s unfair, actually. It’s not like Blaydes has been knocked out of title contention – he’s still clearly one of the best Heavyweights on the roster right now and proved that in March when he thoroughly ragdolled Justin Willis en route to a lopsided decision win. That’s why this is a strange fight of sorts.

Sure, Abdurakhimov is on a 3-fight win streak, most recently TKOing Marcin Tybura, but I’m not sure he really represents a step up from Willis for Blaydes. He’s tough, but I think Willis is a better striker and wrestler and if that were the fight, I’d take Willis 9 times out of 10.

That doesn’t mean Abdurakhimov can’t win here. He’s a sneakily decent striker and Blaydes’ chin has been cracked – obviously, Ngannou knocked him out, but Hunt also had him in a ton of trouble early on – but I just can’t see it myself. For me, he’s far too slow to beat an athlete the caliber of Blaydes, and ‘Razor’ is young enough that we’re probably likely to see an improvement in his overall game every time he fights.

More worryingly for Abdurakhimov, his last loss to Derrick Lewis saw him throw away a large lead on the scorecards and get TKO’d once Lewis put him on his back. And while Abdurakhimov is a solid grappler, Blaydes is one of the strongest wrestlers in UFC Heavyweight history, and actually has the record for most takedowns in the division, ever.

For me this should be business as usual for Blaydes; he’ll take Abdurakhimov down with surprising ease and probably beat him up on the ground for a TKO win. With Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou likely the next title fight, maybe 2020 will be the year that Blaydes makes his challenge?

The Pick: Blaydes via second-round TKO