UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington - Predictions and Picks

#4 Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Moraes

Jose Aldo is making the drop to 135lbs for the first time

For years, UFC fans were led to believe that longtime Featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo’s future lay at 155 lbs; he was even mooted as a potential title challenger there at times, and stated on numerous occasions that he found the weight cut to 145 lbs a tricky one. That’s why it’s such a shock to see that in his first weight move, he’s actually moving downwards to 135 lbs to clash with his countryman Marlon Moraes.

Photos have already emerged of Aldo looking drawn-out during his weight cut, and that to me is a massive alarm bell. ‘Scarface’ isn’t old at 33, but he’s been around at the very top for years now and has faced nothing but killers for a decade. He’s taken tons of damage along the way in clashes with Frankie Edgar, Conor McGregor, Chad Mendes and Max Holloway, and earlier this year he wilted entirely when faced with the pressure of Alexander Volkanovski.

None of this bodes well for a fight with Moraes, who is firmly still in his prime. ‘Magic’ lost out in his quest to become Bantamweight champion in June, but in his fight with Henry Cejudo, he was chewing the Olympian up for two rounds with his vicious striking before Cejudo somehow willed his way to a third-round TKO.

Not many other fighters – if any at all – could’ve made the comeback that Cejudo made in that fight. Most opponents would’ve been broken apart by Moraes’ vicious assault to the legs, and it would’ve been the Brazilian with his hand raised at the end of the fight. At his best, Moraes has insane timing and power in his strikes – particularly in his low kicks – and an unparalleled killer instinct. He’s also an underrated grappler, as we saw when he submitted Raphael Assuncao in February.

Sound like anyone familiar? Essentially, Moraes is a younger version of the fighter Aldo was in his prime, and he’s taken nothing like the damage nor wear-and-tear that ‘Scarface’ has over the past decade. Throw in the fact that Aldo may struggle to make 135lbs, drawing himself out physically in the process, and this sounds like a horrible idea for the former champion.

I think this fight goes badly for Aldo and we may well be about to see the end of his storied career. I think Moraes uses his own game against him, chewing his legs up with low kicks before taking him out with strikes. The snake always eats its own tail in MMA, and this will be another prime example of that theory in action.

The Pick: Moraes via second round TKO