UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington - Predictions and Picks

#5 Petr Yan vs. Urijah Faber

Urijah Faber returned from retirement to TKO Ricky Simon this summer

Like the previous fight, this one sees a legendary former champion – albeit in the WEC rather than the UFC – facing a deadly young gun. Yan is undefeated in the UFC at 5-0, he’s destroyed top contenders like Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson, and his striking combinations are absolutely terrifying.

Faber on the other hand retired back in 2016 following a win over Brad Pickett, and returned this summer to TKO Ricky Simon in a surprisingly quick fight. Faber remains the great fighter he always was; his grappling is phenomenal and his range of chokes are dangerous, and he’s a solid striker, with his overhand right being his best weapon.

Unfortunately, ‘The California Kid’ is also not a kid any more. At 40 years old he’s much slower and more shopworn than ever, and while he had Simon out of the Octagon in just 46 seconds, he still took a worrying amount of shots before landing the big bomb on him.

Is there a chance that Faber could surprise Yan by catching him with that overhand right and follow it by choking him out with his patented guillotine? I guess so – every fighter has a shot and Faber is still extremely talented and one of the best ever at 135lbs – but I worry for him against someone with as much speed and punching power as Yan.

Arguably no other fighter at 135lbs chains combinations together quite as well as ‘No Mercy’. Against Rivera, he was struggling at times, but then turned up the heat on the veteran contender and forced him to wilt under his volume, and the same happened to Dodson.

When you consider that Faber was made to look slow by Rivera three years ago – and he’s been on the shelf ever since outside of that Simon fight – it just becomes hard to see how he can defeat the Russian in this one. The UFC has always used its veterans to make names for its prospects, and while Faber still dreams of one last title fight against Henry Cejudo, I think he’s bitten off more than he can chew in this one.

Can Yan finish Faber? I’m not sure; if he could, then the next title shot is almost certainly his. But then Faber has always been incredibly tough, and his ability to take punishment is something that seemingly has never waned. I like ‘No Mercy’ in this one but I think it goes the distance.

The Pick: Yan via unanimous decision