UFC 246, McGregor vs. Cowboy: Predictions and picks

The UFC returns this weekend with its first show of 2020, and it’s a big one as Conor McGregor takes on Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone in the main event of UFC 246 from Las Vegas, Nevada.

The card overall isn’t that deep; hardly surprising given McGregor’s likely pay packet, but it’s still got a handful of solid fights and excellent prospects to keep an eye on.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy.

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#1 Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone

Can Conor McGregor uncork another classic KO?

Well, it’s been a long time coming, but Irish superstar Conor McGregor is finally returning to the UFC. This weekend sees him face-off with Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone in what should be a truly fantastic fight, even if it’s odd in a sense that it’s a pair of 155lbers fighting up at 170lbs for a potential shot at the 155lbs title.

The weight class may well suit Cerrone more than ‘The Notorious One’. Cowboy has fought at 170lbs on numerous occasions, nearly reaching a title shot there in 2017 before being derailed by Jorge Masvidal. He’s beaten tough fighters like Rick Story, Matt Brown and Mike Perry at Welterweight, while McGregor’s sole experience there consists of two fights against Nate Diaz, who is another natural 155lber.

McGregor does at least appear to be taking the fight seriously, though; recent photos of him show that he’s packed on muscle for his move to 170lbs, and realistically, it makes sense – if he loses this one, his relevance and drawing status would likely come into question as he hasn’t won a fight since 2016.

This sounds like it’ll turn out to be a striking battle. Sure, McGregor’s takedown defence was badly exposed by Khabib Nurmagomedov, but of course, Cowboy isn’t nearly the offensive wrestler that the Russian is, and more to the point, his pride will likely make him want to stand and the trade-off with the Irishman. So who has the advantage?

At 6’1” compared to McGregor’s 5’9” and with a 73” reach compared to the Irishman’s 74”, it’s clear that Cerrone’s not going to allow ‘The Notorious One’ to snipe at him from the outside as he did to opponents like Dennis Siver and Chad Mendes. Cerrone’s kicking game is tremendous, and he’s adept at using long punches and jabs to keep a foe at distance.

To win this fight, Cerrone’s best bet would be to look to kick McGregor repeatedly to keep him at the range, and perhaps look to mix in his takedowns for good measure. The problem he’s likely to have is that gauging range and being able to catch opponents at just the right time is one of McGregor’s best strengths.

More to the point, a couple of Cerrone’s big weaknesses also play right into the Irishman’s hands. Cowboy is a notoriously slow starter, while McGregor tends to end things quickly; obviously, everyone remembers his 13-second KO of Jose Aldo, but he also took out Dustin Poirier in the first round and essentially had Eddie Alvarez, Chad Mendes and Dennis Siver done by the end of the first stanza too.

Cerrone also struggles when fighters manage to corral him against the fence, as Masvidal and Darren Till did. And McGregor loves to use this tactic, closing his foe down against the fence before opening up on them with heavy shots. Add in the fact that McGregor’s power carries over to 170lbs – he dropped the incredibly durable Nate Diaz on numerous occasions – and that Cowboy’s chin is now extremely questionable, and it sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Cowboy has a chance to win this fight, certainly; he’s a much better striker in terms of overall skills – including kicking than McGregor and he’s far better in terms of grappling. The problem though is that for me, his weaknesses line up too well with a couple of McGregor’s strengths. I see this going in a similar fashion to Cerrone’s recent fight with Justin Gaethje, ending with Cowboy unconscious.

The Pick: McGregor via first-round KO

#2 Holly Holm vs. Raquel Pennington

Holly Holm first clashed with Raquel Pennington in 2015

I’ll be honest and say that I didn’t expect to see Holly Holm return so quickly following her TKO loss to Amanda Nunes last summer. After that loss – her 5th in seven fights – she’s miles away from the title picture and so I fully expected her to sit out until perhaps 2021. Instead, ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’ is returning to action to take on Raquel Pennington – who she defeated by decision in her UFC debut back in 2015.

Pennington returned from two straight losses in July to outpoint Irene Aldana, but despite that big win – Aldana is near a title shot herself after her KO of Ketlen Vieira – it’s unlikely that ‘Rocky’ will get another shot at Nunes herself given her loss to the champ in the summer of 2018.

Therefore, the winner of this one simply remains relevant in the division, rather than moving forward per se. But who picks up the win? Well, their first fight was an interesting one in that Holm took a decision based on essentially two rounds of kickboxing at range more than anything truly damaging.

Pennington basically couldn’t get inside the kicking range of ‘The Preacher’s Daughter’, who was quite content to simply snipe away – until the third round, when ‘Rocky’ threw caution to the wind and began to walk Holm down, throwing wild combinations.

That had Holm rattled, and while she did enough to win, it wasn’t a truly impressive showing. However, it must be aid that the fight was Holm’s Octagon debut – she never looked truly comfortable and really, only found her groove in her famous fight with Ronda Rousey later that year.

Even now, though, she can still struggle against fighters who don’t allow her to remain at range and snipe with her kicks. So can Pennington be that fighter? I’m not convinced she can. Despite her massive improvements over the years, ‘Rocky’ still isn’t a great fighter from range; she’s much better inside the clinch or on the ground.

That should prove a problem for her here, as the opponents that defeated Holm – Cris Cyborg, Germaine de Randamie, Valentina Shevchenko – were all excellent kickboxers in their own right, capable of cutting off Holm’s movements.

Unless Pennington can draw Holm into a brawl – and I don’t think she can – I don’t see how she can stop Holm from simply sniping at her for three rounds as she did in their first fight. And given Holm’s experience since then, the smart money has to be on her.

The Pick: Holm via unanimous decision

#3 Aleksei Oleinik vs Maurice Greene

Aleksei Oleinik is deadly on the ground

If this seems like an odd fight to showcase on a UFC pay-per-view in 2020, that’s because it is. Both men are coming off losses – Oleinik two in a row in fact – and aren’t likely to make it into the title picture any time soon. However, the promotion loves a good Heavyweight clash, even if this one has the potential to be a slop-fest, as Greene’s fight with Jeff Hughes was last year.

A decent athlete, Greene is also a genuinely huge guy at 6’7” and 265lbs. He’s far bigger than Oleinik, who stands at 6’2” and weighs approximately 30lbs less, but what the Ukrainian veteran lacks in size, he makes up with in skill. On the ground, ‘The Boa Constrictor’ is genuinely deadly, with his specialism being the rare Ezekiel choke.

I’d give Greene a puncher’s chance in this fight because Oleinik is a plodding brawler on the feet and might be giving up some speed to the TUF veteran, but in all honesty, the Ukrainian is likely no worse from a technical standpoint anyway, and he’s also as tough as leather, taking some serious punishment from Alistair Overeem before going down.

The most likely outcome here, in my opinion, is that Oleinik secures a takedown on Greene, who will likely be willing to grapple with him. That should be a mistake, and will likely hand ‘The Boa Constrictor’ another win by submission, keeping him afloat in the UFC at the age of 42.

The Pick: Oleinik via first-round submission

#4 Claudia Gadelha vs Alexa Grasso

Claudia Gadelha will be looking to submit Alexa Grasso this weekend

To me, this is the second-best fight on the card behind the main event. These two Strawweights are amongst the best in the world at their weight; Gadelha has gone 2-2 in her last 4 fights, but she’s still an extremely dangerous fighter in all areas, while Grasso was arguably robbed in her last outing, a fight against former champ Carla Esparza.

Stylistically, this should look like a classic striker vs. grappler fight. Despite Gadelha’s willingness to strike and Grasso’s improvements on the ground, it’s clear that the Brazilian will want this one on the mat, the Mexican on the feet. So basically, it should come down to whether Grasso can establish her boxing game without giving up takedowns.

That could prove tricky for her; Gadelha is no mug on the feet, and she’s not giving up much range to the young Mexican; she’s 5’4” to Grasso’s 5’5”. But then Grasso is also an excellent counter-striker, and if she wants to get her to the ground, Gadelha is going to have to walk right through her wheelhouse to do so.

This is a winnable fight for Grasso if she can keep things vertical, but worryingly for her, I’m not sure she has the power to knock ‘Claudinha’ out. Gadelha’s chin has been tested by Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jedrzejczyk and always held up, and Grasso has just 4 TKOs in her 14-fight career, none of them in the UFC.

The Mexican was also taken down by Esparza on more than one occasion, and while Esparza is a better pure wrestler than Gadelha, the Brazilian is also a far more dangerous finisher on the ground. It’s been almost two years since Tatiana Suarez choked Grasso out, but I suspect we’ll see the same ending for her in this one.

The Pick: Gadelha via second-round submission

#5 Anthony Pettis vs Carlos Diego Ferreira

Can Anthony Pettis pick up another big knockout this weekend?

After a brief foray up at Welterweight that saw him knock out Stephen Thompson in spectacular fashion before being overcome by Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis is back at 155lbs to take on rising Brazilian contender Carlos Diego Ferreira.

‘Showtime’ remains practically the same fighter he’s always been; deadly from range with his kicks, he’s capable of flashy strikes, carries big power, and he’s tremendous on the ground too. But on the flip side, if a fighter can pressure him and force him backwards, he’s neutered, and his durability is not what it once was either.

Ferreira is on a 5-fight win streak, although it must be said, none of his opponents during that streak were close to the level of Pettis, although they were all dangerous foes. The big question, simply put, is whether Ferreira can pressure ‘Showtime’ enough to prevent his flashy offense from taking hold of the fight.

I’m not convinced he can. While Pettis is no longer that durable, I’m not convinced that Ferreira has the power to take him out with his strikes, and the Brazilian is also not the most explosive athlete. Therefore, I question whether he can close the distance on ‘Showtime’ without taking a nasty kick, either to the head or the body.

He’s also not the wrestler that the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos or Eddie Alvarez were, and even they had problems keeping Pettis down for large amounts of time. Essentially, Ferreira – no offense intended – is the lowest-ranked opponent that ‘Showtime’ has faced in probably six years at least.

This should be an opportunity for Pettis to prove that he’s still very relevant in the 155lbs division, and I see him capitalizing on it by hitting another big KO, potentially with another flashy head kick.

The Pick: Pettis via second-round TKO

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

Super-prospect Maycee Barber headlines this weekend's prelims

Four of this weekend’s prelims will be shown on the ESPN network, beginning with a big fight at Flyweight between prospect Maycee Barber and veteran Roxanne Modafferi. Nobody expected Modafferi to still be doing well in the UFC at this stage of her career; never a great athlete, she stunned everyone by beating Antonina Shevchenko in 2019, belying her 37 years.

I think she’s in trouble here, though; Barber is a hugely powerful striker and while she’s not the finished article from a technical standpoint, she’s a phenomenal athlete who hits very hard. I like Barber to take this one by second-round TKO.

At Featherweight, we’ve got a hugely intriguing fight between Andre Fili and Sodiq Yusuff. Both of these men have been on a roll; Yusuff is 3-0 in the UFC and has shown himself to be a remarkably powerful puncher; the Nigerian is one of the most explosive athletes in the entire UFC.

Fili meanwhile looked tremendous in his last two fights, finally showing some consistency after struggling for it since his UFC debut in 2013. This one is a tough fight to pick, but I’m going with Yusuff. He appears to be slightly quicker and hits slightly harder, and I think that’ll be the difference. Yusuff via third-round TKO is my pick.

At Lightweight, hard-hitting brawler Drew Dober takes on prospect Nasrat Haqparast. Haqparast, who resembles a smaller Kelvin Gastelum, is on a 3-fight winning streak and has solid skills in all areas, but Dober might prove to be a trickier test than some would expect – he’s got big power in his punches and is also a stout wrestler. I feel like Haqparast has the higher ceiling so I’ll take him to win a decision, but to see Dober take this wouldn’t be a shocker.

Finally, Chas Skelly takes on Grant Dawson at Featherweight. A skilled wrestler, Skelly has good technique on the ground, but he’s also proven to be open to being caught in submissions and doesn’t always weather punishment well. Dawson is still a prospect, but he’s also 2-0 in the UFC and looks very dangerous, particularly on the ground. I like Dawson by submission here.

#7 The Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card

Aleksa Camur makes his full UFC debut this weekend

The UFC Fight Pass portion of this card is headlined by a Light-Heavyweight clash; Aleksa Camur – a training partner of Stipe Miocic – faces Justin Ledet. Ledet, a boxing-based fighter, hasn’t won a fight since 2017 now, and I think he’s in trouble here as his primary advantage at Heavyweight was his speed, something he no longer has at 205lbs. Camur is unproven but he’s also an explosive athlete who hits like a truck, and I like him to pick up another KO here.

At Flyweight, veteran Tim Elliott faces Askar Askarov. Unbeaten at 10-0 with one draw, Askarov’s primary strength is in his wrestling, so for me, this depends on whether he can avoid one of Elliott’s dangerous chokes while holding him down to punish him with ground-and-pound. As Elliott is getting older at 33 I’ll say yes, so Askarov via decision is my pick.

At Bantamweight, hard hitter Brian Kelleher is back to face newcomer Ode Osbourne, who earned his UFC spot with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series. I like Kelleher here; sure, he’s lost his last two fights, but he still hits incredibly hard and I don’t think Osbourne has fought anyone as good as him previously. Kelleher via KO is my pick.

Finally, at Strawweight, JJ Aldrich faces Sabina Mazo. Not the flashiest fighter, Aldrich nonetheless has improved to become a pretty dangerous technical boxer, while Mazo is still largely unproven. Aldrich via decision is the pick.