UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes - Predictions and Picks

#5 Derrick Lewis vs. Ilir Latifi

Can Derrick Lewis' punching power pull him through against Ilir Latifi?

Okay, so this may well be the most baffling fight in recent memory inside the UFC; Latifi is making the move to Heavyweight for the first time in his UFC tenure despite standing at just 5’10”, and he’s been matched with one of the biggest men in the whole division in the form of Lewis, who has to cut weight to make the 265lbs limit and stands at least 5” taller.

With that said, this isn’t doom and gloom for Latifi, not by a long shot. Lewis’s major weakness is his ground game; his takedown defense remains hugely porous despite his experience and while he has defeated other ground specialists before, most notably Marcin Tybura and Shamil Abdurakhimov, his tendency to simply look to lift opponents off him using brute strength may not work against someone with the wrestling technique of ‘The Sledgehammer’.

The problem for Latifi, however, is that he doesn’t traditionally look to destroy opponents with ground-and-pound despite hitting hard. His KO or TKO wins have come from a standing position, and it’s hard to see him grabbing onto the neck of someone like Lewis for one of his trademark power guillotine chokes.

Add in the fact that for however strong the Swede is, ‘The Black Beast’ is likely more powerful still simply due to his ridiculous size, and it becomes a little more worrying for Latifi. Can he take Lewis down? Quite possibly. Can he hold him there? That’s less likely, and if he can’t and he gets hit by one of Lewis’s clubbing punches, then he’s in deep trouble.

Lewis is an unpredictable enough fighter that ‘The Sledgehammer’ can’t be counted out here, and in the very least I suspect Latifi will win the first round with his takedowns. But I can see Lewis catching him cleanly at least once, and when he does, I don’t think the Swede can stand up to his enormous power.

The Pick: Lewis via third round KO