UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero - Predictions and Picks

After a few weeks of lesser UFC shows, the promotion has a big one on tap this weekend in the form of UFC 248, which goes down in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. We’ve got two title fights at the top of the card – Israel Adesanya defending his UFC Middleweight crown against Yoel Romero, and Weili Zhang attempting her first UFC Strawweight title defense against former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Sure, the card isn’t too deep outside of those top two fights, but with a main event and co-main event that good, it’s not too much of a big deal. Assuming everything holds up this week, then this could be one of the better shows of 2020.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero.

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#1 Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero

Can Israel Adesanya hold onto the UFC Middleweight title he took from Robert Whittaker?

When Israel Adesanya downed Robert Whittaker to become the undisputed UFC Middleweight champion last October, it seemed almost a given that his first defense would come against Paulo ‘The Eraser’ Costa, who defeated Yoel Romero to become the top contender in August. But instead – due to a couple of injuries sidelining Costa – Cuba’s Romero has been granted the shot, becoming the latest fighter to earn a title shot whilst coming off a loss.

While that hasn’t sat well with some, I don’t mind it too much. Romero’s loss to Costa was a razor-close decision and while he hasn’t actually won a fight since his February 2018 knockout of Luke Rockhold, with different judges he could also have beaten Robert Whittaker in their June 2018 fight, too. And to be quite frank, he’s a better challenger than the likes of Jared Cannonier and Darren Till right now.

This one’s an interesting fight because neither man has fought an opponent like the other before. That’s hardly surprising given how unique both men are, but it also means that it’s a tricky fight to pick. So will Adesanya’s pinpoint striking, unorthodox movement, and incredible timing edge out Romero’s explosive athletic ability, incredible wrestling and brute power?

It’s probably unfair to say that Adesanya hasn’t beaten a strong wrestler, given he does have wins over Derek Brunson and Kelvin Gastelum. But then neither man is quite like Romero; Brunson is an excellent athlete in his own right, but he’s also far more reckless than ‘Soldier of God’, which meant he basically played into the hands of ‘The Last Stylebender’. Gastelum meanwhile is arguably too small to really use his wrestling at 185lbs and didn’t really look to impose that part of his game on Adesanya too much.

Besides, the reason that Romero really excels isn’t so much due to his Olympic caliber wrestling, it’s more his ability to hang back and read his opponent before suddenly springing into action with a burst of explosive offense, whether that’s a huge strike or a powerful takedown. That means he isn’t going to play into Adesanya’s hands – and likely means this fight could be slow at times.

A lot could depend on how much offense Adesanya is willing to risk throwing at the points in which Romero isn’t throwing any of his own; like a video game character, ‘Soldier of God’ tends to almost ‘reload’ after an attack. If he can win a lot of points and break the Cuban down with shots to the legs and body – as Costa did at points in that fight – then essentially, he might only need to avoid Romero’s big rushes to win.

Can he do so? Well, if anyone can avoid being taken out by one of Romero’s patented rushes, it’s ‘The Last Stylebender’, who seems to have perhaps the best reflexes we’ve seen at 185lbs since the downfall of Anderson Silva back in 2013. With that said, it won’t be easy, as Romero might be the first fighter Adesanya’s faced who can match him for speed.

Given Romero’s stop-start style and the fact that Adesanya has thus far come into all of his bouts with a perfect gameplan, I’m willing to lean towards ‘The Last Stylebender’ being able to pick up enough points with his striking while also avoiding the Cuban’s offense to win a decision or score a late TKO, but he’s going to have to be very, very careful not to make an error; if Romero hits him cleanly, that could be that.

The Pick: Adesanya via unanimous decision

#2 Weili Zhang vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Weili Zhang became the UFC's first Chinese champion in 2019

This UFC Strawweight title clash is fascinating because it could represent either the beginning of a new era in the division – or it could be a ‘back to the future’ moment with a former dominant champion regaining her spot at the top of the mountain.

Zhang became the UFC’s first-ever Chinese champion back in August with her first-round TKO of Jessica Andrade; few observers gave her a chance against the brute power of the Brazilian, and yet ‘Magnum’ turned the tide completely, catching her with a right hand before destroying her with elbows and punches from the clinch.

Jedrzejczyk meanwhile returned to 115lbs in October and outpointed Michelle Waterson in a pretty clear-cut decision. She doesn’t feel as dominant as she once did during her title reign – two losses to Rose Namajunas will do that – but those losses remain her only ones at Strawweight, and it’s impossible to hold her ill-advised move to 125lbs to fight Valentina Shevchenko against her.

For me, this fight will come down to whether Jedrzejczyk can pick Zhang apart as she’s done to so many other fighters without taking too many big shots from her Chinese foe. The issue with that is that prior to her win over Andrade, in the UFC at least ‘Magnum’ was actually known more as a volume striker, and that’s how she defeated Tecia Torres to earn her title shot.

That means that Jedrzejczyk won’t simply be able to dance around and simply play the matador, as she did in her own win over Andrade; this fight will more likely look like a battle of two matadors, except one clearly has exceptional power in her strikes while the other – Joanna – just doesn’t have that many knockouts to her name.

I’d say Joanna is probably still the more technical striker, as Zhang’s defensive work in the Torres fight didn’t look all too great, but then we have seen her out-boxed before by Namajunas, so it’s certainly not impossible to beat her on the feet. What’s really intriguing here is what could happen if the two fighters clinch; Jedrzejczyk has always been excellent in close quarters, but she definitely isn’t as dangerous as ‘Magnum’ if that fight with Andrade is anything to go by.

Overall I think this will be a close fight, but despite all of Joanna’s accomplishments, I’m leaning towards Zhang. I can’t see her getting completely picked apart and beaten on volume and if the two women do exchange, she’s clearly got more knockout power, is better in the clinch, and if the fight hits the ground – which is doubtful – she’s far superior too. I’m going to take Zhang by decision.

The Pick: Zhang via unanimous decision

#3 Drakkar Klose vs. Beneil Dariush

Drakkar Klose is looking for the biggest win of his career over Beneil Dariush

This battle of Lightweight contenders was supposed to go down way back in July 2019, but Dariush ended up dropping out with an injury, and so the fight was scrapped. Since then, both men have won their most recent fights; Dariush impressively choked out Frank Camacho in October while Klose took a decision over Christos Giagos in August.

Interestingly, both men are largely flying under the radar right now; Dariush hasn’t really been in contention since his run from 2017 to 2018 that saw him go 0-2-1, and while he’s still an excellent grappler with solid striking fundamentals, he’s also seemingly older than his 30 years and is worryingly slow for a 155lber. But still, he is on a three-fight win streak and has some of the most dangerous ground skills in the division.

Klose meanwhile – with a name like an intergalactic bounty hunter from a sci-fi movie – is actually 5-1 in the UFC and looked excellent in a couple of his wins, namely over Marc Diakiese and Bobby Green, but his defeat at the hands of David Teymur, along with stretches of inactivity, have left him as somewhat of a forgotten man.

Essentially, this is a fight of athleticism and potential against polished but far less naturally talented skills. Klose is far quicker than Dariush, hits harder and pushes an astonishing pace at times, but Dariush is a far more technical striker and on the ground, he’s light years ahead with his grappling.

The question then is whether Klose can push a hard enough pace that Dariush tires out to the point that his offense is neutralized, or whether he can even catch him unawares with something violent just as Alexander Hernandez did in 2018. If he can’t do that – or if Dariush can close the distance and take him down – then he’s probably going to be in a lot of trouble.

I think I’m leaning towards Dariush here; Klose has never shown the kind of knockout power that Hernandez or Edson Barboza used to KO the Iranian and being a wrestler, he’s much more likely to initiate a grappling exchange, particularly if Dariush hurts him with strikes of his own – which he’s definitely capable of doing.

Dariush might find himself in trouble at some point, particularly if Klose turns out to be far faster than him, but overall I think it’s his fight to lose.

The Pick: Dariush via second-round submission

#4 Li Jingliang vs. Neil Magny

Can Li Jingliang continue his winning ways against Neil Magny?

This Welterweight clash is an interesting one as it features a pair of fighters who are somewhat similar in that they have decent skills in all areas and have parlayed those skills into plenty of UFC success, but their lack of real specialist talents in any one area has held them back somewhat, particularly in the case of Magny, whose career has followed a simple pattern for years; if he’s against an all-rounder he’ll probably win, if he’s faced with a specialist he’ll probably lose.

Thankfully for Magny, ‘The Leech’ isn’t necessarily a specialist. In fact, it’s hard at this stage to get a handle on where exactly he thrives best – and that’s a compliment. Initially, he appeared to be a stifling grappler – hence that ‘Leech’ nickname – but over the years the Chinese star has developed his striking hugely, to the point where we’ve seen him win by KO or TKO 5 times since 2016.

He’s not the most technical striker, but Li packs a ton of power is quite willing to exchange from the pocket and has a solid chin too. Where does he struggle? Well, his only recent loss – to Jake Matthews at UFC 221 – came largely from the fact that the Aussie was able to ground him and appeared to be the stronger fighter, something that Li probably wasn’t used to feeling.

So can Magny take advantage of that apparent weakness? I’m not so sure. The TUF veteran does have a lot of wins over fighters that you’d consider stronger, superior athletes – Kelvin Gastelum, Erick Silva, Hector Lombard, and Alex Garcia, for instance – but those fights were all largely comeback wins for Magny, who took somewhat of a beating early on before turning the tables on a tired foe late on.

More worryingly for the TUF veteran, he’s taken a lot of damage over the years and was last seen taking a beating for the ages at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio, who mercifully TKO’d him in the 5th round. And we haven’t seen him since – an inactive spell of well over a year, the biggest in his UFC career.

Add in the fact that Li hasn’t shown a tendency to gas out in his recent fights - his last two wins, in fact, saw him TKO his opponent in the third round – and I think Magny’s in trouble here. Could he outwork the Chinese fighter down the stretch? Perhaps, but I’m willing to bet that a violent rush from Li midway through the fight can get him out of there.

The Pick: Li via second-round TKO

#5 Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

Alex Oliveira has become one of the UFC's most reliable action fighters

This fight could well turn out to be a ‘loser leaves town’ match, although due to the exciting nature of both men, I’d hope that the UFC doesn’t think of it that way. Oliveira – the Brazilian ‘Cowboy’ – has been one of the most reliable action fighters on the whole roster since his debut in 2015, and although he’s on a three-fight losing streak, he’s 9-6 in the UFC overall and his last fight was a controversial decision loss to Nicolas Dalby.

Griffin meanwhile rose to prominence with a win over Mike Perry in 2018 but lost a lot of his luster with defeats at the hands of Curtis Millender, Thiago Alves, and Alex Morono, with only a win over Zelim Imadaev keeping him afloat.

Both men will be likely to look to strike in this fight; ‘Max Pain’ is a striker by nature, with seven of his 15 wins coming by knockout, and his best UFC showing – the win over Perry – coming due to his excellent ability to dart in and land strikes before dodging Perry’s wild swings back. Oliveira, on the other hand, is a tremendous grappler, but plenty of times before we’ve seen him drawn into brawls instead.

The issue for Griffin, I feel, is that he’s never really beaten a genuinely technical striker in the UFC; Perry at that point was far cruder than he is now and tended to swing nothing but haymakers, while Imadaev and Erick Montano aren’t kickboxers by trade. And while nobody’s going to mistake Oliveira for Israel Adesanya, he’s definitely a solid technical Muay Thai fighter, able to throw heavy leg kicks and perfectly timed punches with a lot of power.

The main thing that makes me lean towards ‘Cowboy’ here though is the fact that with three losses in a row, he’ll have his back to the wall. That means that he’s more likely to be willing to grapple, and when you’re dealing with a guy who submitted Carlos Condit, Tim Means and KJ Noons you know you’re up against someone legit.

I’d expect these guys to come out and trade-off early on, but if Griffin begins to get the better of things, I’d expect Oliveira to change things up to look for a takedown – and probably work ‘Max Pain’ over on the ground before latching onto a submission.

The Pick: Oliveira via second-round submission

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

Prospect Sean O'Malley headlines this week's prelim card

The ESPN network will showcase the top four prelims from this weekend’s card, giving the fighters involved a nice platform to put on a show.

Headlining this portion is the returning prospect Sean O’Malley, who faces Jose Quinonez in a Bantamweight clash. ‘Sugar’ is unbeaten in MMA at 10-0, but by the time this fight rolls around, it’ll be well over two years since he last fought due to issues with PEDs. Quinonez meanwhile has been a reliable action fighter for some time, but despite being 5-1 in his last 6, he’s never really beaten a high-level fighter. I think O’Malley should be able to outwork him for a decision but to see things go the other way due to O’Malley’s long layoff wouldn’t be a shocker.

At Lightweight, Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler Mark O Madsen faces Austin Hubbard, who is 1-1 in the UFC after edging a decision over Kyle Prepolec last year. Hubbard has more experience in MMA but I like Madsen in this one; he’s the kind of special athlete who will probably climb the ladder quickly, and I can’t see Hubbard dealing well with his power. Madsen via TKO is my pick.

World-class grappler Rodolfo Vieira is back at Middleweight, facing former Light-Heavyweight Saparbek Safarov. In all honesty, this sounds like a classic squash match; Safarov isn’t anywhere near close to the level of athletic ability that Vieira has, and the fact that he was tapped by Tyson Pedro – hardly an accomplished grappler – rings instant alarm bells. Vieira might be found out as he moves up the ladder, but I doubt it’ll be in this fight, and so ‘The Black Belt Hunter’ should take another submission.

Also at Middleweight, tricky veteran, Gerald Meerschaert faces prospect Deron Winn. Winn – a protégé of Daniel Cormier – was a little exposed in his last fight, as Darren Stewart managed to fend off his takedowns and outpoint him, but he’s still a fantastic wrestler and athlete. Meerschaert though has far more experience – 30 wins and 12 losses – and while he’s not a great athlete he knows how to finish from any area. I’m taking Winn to grind a decision out based on his wrestling and the fact that Meerschaert may be past his prime after 13 years in the game, but he’ll need to be very, very careful.

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Giga Chikadze headlines the early preliminary card

ESPN+ will also show three prelims this weekend, beginning with a Featherweight bout between Jamall Emmers and Giga Chikadze. Georgian wrestler Chikadze grinded his first UFC win out in September over Brandon Davis, while Emmers will be making his UFC debut here. ‘Pretty Boy’ has a strong record of 17-4, giving him much more experience, but I’m unsure how he’ll deal with Chikadze’s wrestling, particularly considering ‘Octagon shock’. I’ll take Chikadze via decision here.

At Strawweight, Emily Whitmire faces Polyana Viana. Neither woman has really impressed in their UFC stints, but Whitmire at least has a pair of solid wins over Jamie Moyle and Aleksandra Albu. Viana has been thrashed in her last 3 fights, and I see no reason why that should change here; I’ll take Whitmire via decision.

Finally, veteran Guido Cannetti takes on Mongolia’s Danaa Batgerel in a Featherweight fight. It’s hard to get a handle on exactly what Batgerel brings to the table due to the limited footage on him, while Cannetti is a solid fighter in all areas – if ‘Ninja’ could bring more calm to the table then he could well be a contender. Given how good the Argentine has looked at times – his win over Diego Rivas and the first round of his loss to Marlon Vera – I’m happy to take him via submission in this one.