UFC 249: 5 reasons why Tony Ferguson will beat Khabib Nurmagomedov

Tony Ferguson versus Khabib Nurmagomedov - colloquially known as the "most cursed fight in UFC history", it has been scheduled 4 times in the past, dating back to 2015, having been cancelled each time.

The fight is in danger of being cancelled for the fifth time due to the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, with Dana White insisting that UFC 249 will still take place, it seems that the fight between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson will move forward on April 18.

Khabib Nurmagomedov is an undefeated MMA fighter with a 28-0 record, with high-profile wins over the likes of Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. He is known for his sambo-based wrestling, where he takes his opponents down, ties up their limbs, and forces his weight down on them, before using his methodical ground-and-pound skills to finish off his opponents.

Tony Ferguson is currently on a 12 fight winning streak, and the #1 contender for the UFC Lightweight Championship. He is not the typical MMA fighter, with an unpredictable style that overwhelms his opponents; he is very skilled on his feet, with an instinctive, counter-punching boxing style that catches his opponents off-guard - and he is also very skilled on the ground, with a black belt in 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu and a collegiate wrestling career to his name.

While it seems impossible to predict the winner of such a tight affair, one could argue that Ferguson has the upper hand. With that being said, here are 5 reasons why Tony Ferguson will beat Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 249.

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#5 - His aerobic fitness

Ferguson's cardio is unparalleled in his division

MMA is one of the most physically taxing sports in the world, and as such, it is normal for fighters to become tired, slowing down with each round.

However, this does not apply to Tony Ferguson, whose aerobic fitness is easily one of the best in the lightweight division. Unlike most fighters, Ferguson is able to keep up his tempo through 5 rounds without gassing out, which has undoubtedly been one of the keys to his success.

An example of this can be seen in Ferguson's fight against Kevin Lee at UFC 216. The first two rounds were very fast-paced, with both fighters exchanging strikes back-and-forth. However, once the third round began, Lee was visibly exhausted, at which point Ferguson pounced on his opponent, submitting Lee with a triangle choke.

Khabib has a history of gassing out in fights, as seen in his fights against Al Iaquinta and Conor McGregor. If Ferguson is able to keep up his tempo through the later rounds of his fight against Khabib, there is a high likelihood that he may be able to overwhelm Khabib in the fight.

#4 - Unorthodox arsenal

Nobody in the UFC fights quite like Tony Ferguson

There is nobody that fights like Tony Ferguson. Ferguson knows this himself, famously branding his style of fighting as 'snap-jitsu'. This self-proclaimed fighting style has clearly worked to great success for Ferguson, who is on a 12-fight winning streak.

But this is what makes Tony Ferguson so potent in the cage - nobody knows what he has under his sleeve. From spinning elbows and flying kicks standing up, to forward rolls and short elbows on the ground, Tony Ferguson has a range of unorthodox weapons in his arsenal.

This contrasts with Khabib, who has always utilized the same gameplan of mauling all his opponents on the ground - albeit to incredible success.

Considering Ferguson's highly unorthodox style, it would not be surprising if he shows up to his next fight with new tricks up his sleeve, that give him a huge upper hand against someone as dominant as Khabib.

#3 - Mind games

Ferguson has a method to his madness

Most people underestimate Tony Ferguson's intelligence. This includes Khabib, who has on more than one occasion, referred to Ferguson as a "stupid guy" on multiple occasions.

However, Tony Ferguson has a clear method to his own madness that has worked many times for him. In an interview with Ariel Helwani, he reinstated that he likes to "stay 100% in character", and that he has a mental advantage going into his fight against Khabib.

“I’m in this dude’s head. He’s going to train so hard and he’s going to be so nervous that he’s going to make a mistake. I’m going to capitalize on that. I’m going to catch him during the scramble.” - stated Ferguson in the same interview.

This is not the first time Ferguson has gotten in another fighter's head. Prior to his fight against Kevin Lee, he demeaned Lee, calling him a "kid" and stating that he would "eat [him] for lunch", and that he could finish him with ease.

This trash-talking was successful, and a visibly frustrated Lee succumbed to the hands of Ferguson, who finished him in the third round.

While it remains to be seen whether Tony's methods will work against Khabib, his intelligent mind games are sure to give him an upper hand in the fight.

#2 - Ability to fight off his back

Tony Ferguson thrives fighting off his back

In all 12 of Khabib's fights, his opponents have had to defend themselves off their back at least once. Most fighters don't survive for long in this position, as it is almost impossible to stand up from Khabib Nurmagomedov's control.

However, Tony Ferguson can not only survive off his back, he thrives off his back. There are two parts to his success on his back: his elbows, and the constant threat of a D'Arce choke.

Tony Ferguson's elbows are arguably his greatest weapon. Time and time again, Ferguson has been able to elbow his opponents off his back, viciously bloodying them. This can be seen in Ferguson's fight against Anthony Pettis, when he was taken down, but proceeded to elbow him multiple times, which signaled the beginning of the end for Pettis.

On his back, Ferguson is also able to slip his hands underneath his opponent to land his opponent in a D'Arce choke. With three D'Arce choke finishes to his name, the threat of being submitted will surely be looming in Khabib's mind heading into the fight.

Ferguson's uncanny skill on his back will give him a serious advantage over Khabib, whose fighting style is based on pressuring his opponents on their back.

#1 - Fighting spirit

Ferguson's heart will likely be a huge asset against Khabib

Tony Ferguson has come close to being finished on many occasions during his time inside the Octagon. Perhaps the closest Ferguson came to being finished was at UFC Fight Night 91 against Lando Vannata where in the first round, he was knocked down thrice, which would usually signal the end of a fight. However, Ferguson recovered, and submitted Vannata with a D'Arce choke in the second round.

In his last 12 fights for the UFC, Tony Ferguson has shown that he not only has incredible fighting skills - he has an incredible fighting spirit as well. He has shown that he is able to keep going in the most grueling situations, something that cannot be taught.

In their fight, it is likely that Khabib will take El Cucuy down and maul him. However, we can be sure that Ferguson will show strength in the face of adversity and fight back, doing whatever it takes to get back up.

Given that most of Khabib's opponents have given up once taken down, including world class fighters such as Dustin Poirier, Ferguson's fighting spirit will bring a whole new dynamic to their fight.