UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

Incredibly, against all odds, it looks like UFC 249 is actually going ahead. Sure, the line-up looks nothing like the one that was initially planned. We’ve lost Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson again. But somehow, UFC President Dana White has been able to put together a 12-fight card.

Whether the show should be going ahead is another matter; as of writing the UFC has yet to announce the venue it has secured, but will MMA fans be willing to watch? Of course.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje.

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#1 Interim Lightweight Title: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje

It's not a fight with Khabib, but at least we get to see Tony Ferguson in action at UFC 249

Okay, so this isn’t Khabib vs. Ferguson, but it’s still an excellent fight worthy of main eventing any UFC card. Should it be for an interim title? In all honesty, there’s no need, but the UFC does love introducing them. And should Ferguson have taken such a dangerous fight on late notice? Well, no, but if he wasn’t willing to do crazy things, he wouldn’t be Tony Ferguson.

So how do these two stack up? For me, the overall clash of styles favors Ferguson, but there are at least a couple of caveats that mean Gaethje has a major chance of winning too.

Firstly, the argument for Ferguson. Obviously ‘El Cucuy’ has won his last 12 fights, beating the likes of Rafael Dos Anjos, Donald Cerrone, and Anthony Pettis. He’s only gone the distance three times during that run, and is equally dangerous both standing and on the ground, from seemingly any position too.

More tellingly for this fight, Ferguson has two other major strengths. Firstly, his cardio is second-to-none in the 155lbs division. And it was the pace he was able to push that largely broke opponents like Cerrone and Dos Anjos.

And secondly, he’s absolutely as tough as nails, seemingly able to walk through big shots and also recover from being hurt – as we saw against Pettis, Kevin Lee and Lando Vannata.

How does this mean he matches with Gaethje? Well, ‘The Highlight’ has destroyed his last 3 opponents, but before that, he was beaten by both Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Both fights were notable by the fact that it was Alvarez and Poirier who put the pressure on Gaethje, rather than the other way around.

Essentially, if Gaethje is allowed to stalk and walk his opponent down, he’s got a far better chance of landing a kill-shot – usually favoring a big right hand. If an opponent can turn the tables on him, though, he becomes far less dangerous. And while his cardio is solid, he has been known to tire out – something that we’ve never seen from Ferguson.

Therefore, if Ferguson can pressure him as he did to Dos Anjos, Cerrone and Pettis, then he should be able to win this fight. He can do this by forcing Gaethje to wilt under his strikes as Poirier and Alvarez did. Another way could be to eventually wear him down enough to latch onto a submission – perhaps snapping him down into a choke variant, as he’s fond of.

There are a couple of caveats, though. Gaethje arguably hits harder than any other fighter in the Lightweight division. And, while Ferguson’s chin has looked solid enough before, you never know when it’s going to suddenly fail. Ferguson has certainly taken plenty of cumulative damage over the years.

‘El Cucuy’ also spent a lot of 2018 on the shelf rehabbing a serious injury to his knee. And while that wouldn’t usually be a talking point, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Gaethje has some of the best leg kicks in the game. Will he target Ferguson’s surgically repaired knee? Quite possibly, and if he does, he could set up that big right hand.

Despite that though, I’ve got to go with Ferguson here. He’s faced heavy hitters before and faced guys who like to stalk their opponent before and has always come through. And more to the point, he’s had a full training camp while Gaethje is taking this on very late notice. Hopefully, we finally get ‘El Cucuy’ against Khabib before 2020 is out – even if it’s on the Island of Uncle Dana.

The Pick: Ferguson via fourth-round submission

#2 Strawweight: Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica Andrade

Rose Namajunas was piecing Jessica Andrade up in their first fight before she was KO'd

One of the few fights to stay intact from the original UFC 249 line-up, this is a rematch of the Strawweight title fight that took place in May 2019. That one saw Andrade upset Namajunas to claim the title in dramatic fashion; slamming her unconscious in the second round. But can ‘Bate Estaca’ repeat the feat here?

Personally I’m thinking no. As anyone who watched their first meeting would remember, ‘Thug Rose’ was absolutely piecing Andrade up prior to the slam. Essentially, she used little more than a ramrod jab. It was some excellent footwork too that sliced the Brazilian’s face to ribbons, before dropping her late in the first round with a knee.

Since then, Andrade obviously suffered a bad TKO loss at the hands of Weili Zhang – losing her title in the process – and hasn’t fought since. Namajunas meanwhile hasn’t fought since that loss to Andrade. And, that’s literally the only nagging thought in the back of my mind when picking this fight.

Essentially, Rose has never come across as a fighter who truly loves the sport; not like a fighter like Donald Cerrone, for instance. And after the loss to Andrade, there were a lot of reports of her considering retirement. Now, not everything that Dana White says makes sense. But when he claimed that if a fighter is thinking of retiring, they ought to do it, he was probably correct.

So does Namajunas really have her heart in the game for this fight? If she does then theoretically – assuming she doesn’t make a simple mistake as she did last time – it should be her fight to lose, particularly as Andrade’s chin now appears to be cracked somewhat.

If she comes in flat, though, then who knows? Andrade could well take her out in an early, violent rush. Despite that, I’m still confident in picking ‘Thug Rose’. She’s already proven herself to be the superior fighter – loss or not. And, the last time we worried about her mental state, she outpointed Joanna Jedrzejczyk in perhaps her best-ever showing.

The Pick: Namajunas via unanimous decision

#3 Heavyweight: Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan De Castro

Can Greg Hardy overcome the less athletic Yorgan De Castro?

It’s now been six months since we last saw Hardy in the Octagon, in a unanimous decision loss to top ten ranked Alexander Volkov. To be fair to the former NFL player, his performance that night wasn’t that bad. He simply lacked the striking nuance to really compete with the Russian although he showed a solid chin and a lot of heart to survive for three rounds.

This fight is much more up his alley; we’ve seen De Castro once in the UFC thus far, and the native of Cape Verde took just over two minutes to KO Justin Tafa. Currently, 6-0 in MMA, De Castro’s big strength is in his punching power. Five of his wins have come by TKO, but he’s nowhere near Hardy’s level when it comes to athletic talent.

Can De Castro actually win this fight? Perhaps. He definitely hits hard and it’s not like Hardy is a great fighter yet, particularly when it comes to his cardio. However, the fact is that this fight feels very reminiscent of Hardy’s earlier one with Ben Sosoli – another hard hitter who was much smaller and less athletic.

I’m assuming we’ll see a fire-fight here. But Hardy – the bigger, stronger guy – has all the advantages when it comes to speed and athleticism. And unless he gasses out horribly or decides to illegally use an inhaler between rounds, then I think it’s his fight to lose.

The Pick: Hardy via first-round TKO

#4 Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price

Can Vicente Luque overcome Niko Price again?

A rematch of their initial fight in 2017, quite why the UFC has chosen to pit Luque against Price again is anyone’s guess. But it honestly doesn’t matter. It’ll likely still be one of the best fights of 2020. In a combined 23 UFC fights, these two have been the distance just four times, with Price only going out of the first round five times.

Last time they met, it was a comfortable win for Luque. He outstruck ‘The Hybrid’ in the first round and again in the second, basically using his superior technique. He then choked him out with a D’Arce after dropping him. Will he be able to repeat the feat here?

In all honesty, he most likely will. Price remains one of the best fighters to watch on the entire roster. Not many people can get knockouts from upkicks or from hammer fists from the guard. But in all honesty, despite the fact that he’s tremendous on offense, he’s still somewhat porous on defense.

Most notably, he’s got a tendency to be drawn into shootouts with fighters who are either heavier hitters or far more technical. And while he can win those kinds of fights with his crazy finishing skill – see his victory over Tim Means in 2019 – it’s not the smartest way of doing things.

I’ve got no doubt that Price will come into this fight aggressively and look to finish Luque. And with ‘The Silent Assassin’ coming off a clear-cut loss at the hands of Stephen Thompson, he could be gunshy. But overall I would like the Brazilian to do exactly what he did in the first fight, piecing Price up standing before getting him down for a submission.

The Pick: Luque via second-round submission

#5 Featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Jeremy Stephens

Calvin Kattar has become one of the world's most dangerous Featherweights

This Featherweight fight should be a lot of fun. It pits one of the best up-and-comers in the division against a dangerous veteran. Although it’s worth noting that somehow, Stephens is only a year older than Kattar.

Of course, Kattar’s experience levels – he’s 4-2 in the UFC – can’t compare to those of ‘Lil Heathen’, who has been in the UFC since 2007 (!) and has had 32 fights inside the Octagon. But is the punishment that Stephens has weathered over the years finally starting to catch up with him? Perhaps.

You’ve now got to go back to February 2018 to find his last victory. He was knocked out by Jose Aldo in July 2018, his first loss by stoppage since 2012. And since then, he’s been firmly outpointed by both Zabit Magomedsharipov and Yair Rodriguez. Both fights followed a similar pattern, too, with ‘Lil Heathen’ being outworked largely in all areas, particularly on the ground.

Kattar, who coincidentally lost to Magomedsharipov in his last fight, isn’t really known for his grappling. A striker by trade, he hits extremely hard, but isn’t that varied on the feet, preferring to use his leg kicks to set up his boxing game.

Stephens is perhaps the hardest hitter he’s faced in his UFC career thus far. But he’s also not that nuanced himself. He was basically outpointed by Renato Moicano’s jab when they fought in 2017. And while he’s added some tools into his skillset - mainly some hard leg kicks - he remains a power puncher first and foremost.

That means that this one is likely to come down to who can hit the other the hardest first, and I’m favoring Kattar. This is purely because he hasn’t taken so much damage, and is probably in the prime of his career. This is in contrast to Stephens, who’s at the tail-end. Will ‘The Boston Finisher’ live up to his nickname? I’m not so sure, but I’m confident that he can outpoint his more experienced foe.

The Pick: Kattar via unanimous decision

#6 Heavyweight: Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Francis Ngannou should earn a title shot with a win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik

This fight was all set to headline the UFC’s show on ESPN on March 28th before COVID-19 struck. So it’s, well, it’s cool we’re getting to see it even if it’s coming under these odd circumstances. The winner is likely to face the winner of the Stipe Miocic/Daniel Cormier rematch for the UFC’s Heavyweight title, meaning there are big stakes here.

Ngannou, of course, fought Miocic for the title unsuccessfully back in January 2018 and then looked finished when he lost to Derrick Lewis in one of the worst fights of all time. But, he has since bounced back well, taking out Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez, and Junior Dos Santos all by KO.

Rozenstruik meanwhile has rocketed up the ranks in the division. He only debuted in the Octagon last February but has KO’d four opponents already, including Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem. Essentially, ‘Bigi Boy’ is the division’s new Mark Hunt. Albeit, we don’t know whether he has the same iron head as the Australian-based brawler.

He looks like he should be a sloppy, non-athletic fighter, and yet he’s actually incredibly smooth with his strikes, with expert timing on practically everything he throws. And even when he doesn’t appear to be throwing with full power, his accuracy and naturally heavy hands mean he can hurt opponents in devastating fashion.

With that said, until he landed the punch that dropped Overeem – almost tearing his top lip off in the process – he was handily losing that fight. The Dutchman was patiently out-striking him from the outside and mixed in takedowns and ground-and-pound, something that Rozenstruik had little defense against.

If this were a pure striking match, it’d be a hard one to call; Ngannou hits as hard as any fighter in UFC history and can take out anyone with a big shot. But, he’s also not the most technical striker. On the other hand, Rozenstruik has years of experience in kickboxing and is surprisingly nuanced – even if his UFC KO’s thus far have all come against notoriously chinny opponents.

However, it’s not pure striking. And those fights against Miocic and Lewis aside, ‘The Predator’ has proven himself to be underrated when it comes to knowing exactly what to do and when. We saw an example of this when he surprised people by taking Anthony Hamilton down and submitting him with a kimura.

With that in mind, you can bet that he knows the success that Overeem had with Rozenstruik on the ground and should be happy to look to copy that gameplan. Considering that this fight will be over three rounds – compared to five for the Overeem fight – there’s more chance that Ngannou will be able to simply outwork ‘Bigi Boy’ without eating that one big shot, or perhaps even submit him.

The Pick: Ngannou via unanimous decision

#7 The Prelims

Jacare Souza looks set to headline UFC 249's prelim card

It’s unknown right now exactly where the prelims for this show will be aired. It’s likely that they’ll be shown on either ESPN or the ESPN+ streaming service. On tap are six pretty solid fights, all of which could probably have made the main card of a Fight Night show.

At the top, we’ve got a Middleweight clash between Uriah Hall and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza. No UFC fighter fell as hard as Jacare in 2019. After staving off Father Time for years, he was outpointed by Jack Hermansson, who pushed a pace simply too hard for him to keep up with. then lost to Jan Blachowicz in a Light-Heavyweight fight that was one of the year’s worst.

This is his return to 185lbs to take on Hall, who despite never quite living up to the TUF hype, has done pretty well for himself. He’s coming off two straight wins, but Jacare is his toughest opponent in some time. This is a tough one to pick considering how bad Jacare looked in 2019, but I’m leaning towards the Brazilian edging a win by decision.

At Lightweight, Venezuela’s Omar Morales faces off with Alexander Hernandez. Morales is 9-0 in MMA and made a successful UFC debut in December, outpointing Dong Hyun Ma. But, this is a big step up for him.

Hernandez struggled in his last fight – although he was awarded a contentious decision over Francisco Trinaldo – he’s still ultra-talented with skills in all areas. Morales is probably the perfect kind of opponent for him right now – I’m happy to take Hernandez via TKO.

At Lightweight, heavy-handed Khama Worthy faces off with veteran Michael Johnson. Worthy is a massively unproven talent as he’s never faced anyone on the level of Johnson before. But he showed excellent boxing skills in his UFC debut – a KO of Devonte Smith – and Johnson’s chin has been eroding over the years and he’s taken a lot of punishment. The smart pick here would be Johnson, but I’m going with the upset and taking Worthy to win by KO.

Sijara Eubanks faces off with Sarah Moras in a clash of grapplers at Bantamweight, with both women likely with their backs to the wall. Eubanks has lost her last two fights, making her move up to 135lbs look like a mistake, while Moras is 1-3 in her last four, and missed weight in her most recent win.

Eubanks is by far the better athlete, but whether her lack of size will catch up with her here is the big question. I’ll take ‘Sarj’ to win a decision, but it’s likely to be a tight one to call.

At Light-Heavyweight, Sam Alvey takes on Ryan Spann. It’s hardly a surprise to see Alvey on this card given he doesn’t seem to be taking COVID-19 seriously. But, this is a tricky fight for him.

Everyone knows now that if you can avoid the counter right hook of ‘Smiling Sam’ then he’s beatable, and Spann is on an excellent run -3-0 in the UFC thus far and soaring with confidence. I like Spann to find a way to win here, perhaps by TKO as Alvey’s chin isn’t the best.