UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks (Part Two)

As the old saying goes, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try again. UFC 249 – which was initially supposed to take place on April 18th in Brooklyn, New York and then Lemoore, California – is now due to go ahead this Saturday, May 9th, in Jacksonville, Florida.

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the card has changed dramatically over the last month. Initially set to be headlined by the long-awaited Lightweight title clash between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson, the show will now be headlined by an Interim title fight between Ferguson and top contender Justin Gaethje.

The rest of the card has seen plenty of changes too. The ongoing pandemic, which has caused chaos across the sporting world, has meant that the show planned for this weekend looks wildly different to even the scrapped Lemoore show.

Fights such as Rose Namajunas vs. Jessica Andrade, Michael Johnson vs. Khama Worthy, and Marlon Vera vs. Ray Borg have now been removed, while the card has gained a number of exciting fights, including a Bantamweight title fight.

Since the Lemoore show was scrapped on such short notice, a predictions and picks article for many of the fights already exists.

Therefore, you can find my predictions for Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje, Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar, Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro, Uriah Hall vs. Ronaldo Souza, Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price and Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey by clicking on the embedded links.

This article will instead deal with the new additions to the card. Here are the predicted outcomes for the additional fights set for UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje.

#1 UFC Bantamweight title: Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz

Dominick Cruz has been out of action since December 2016

Quite how it’s come to this is anyone’s guess, really. Current Bantamweight kingpin Henry Cejudo – who overcame Marlon Moraes last June to claim the title vacated by TJ Dillashaw – was all set to make his first title defense against Jose Aldo at UFC 250 this Saturday.

The choice of Aldo as Cejudo’s first challenger was baffling in itself; sure, the Brazilian is a living legend of MMA, but he also lost – admittedly controversially – to Moraes in his debut at 135lbs. Still, the fight would’ve been a strong headliner for the UFC’s planned trip to Brazil.

Of course, all that was before the Covid-19 pandemic, and with Aldo stranded in Brazil, we’re now getting an even more baffling title fight. Somehow, despite not fighting since December 2016 – and not winning since June 2016 – former champion Dominick Cruz has been pegged as Cejudo’s challenger instead.

To say the decision is ludicrous would be an understatement; newer fans of the promotion might only recognize ‘The Dominator’ as a color commentator, and it’s not like there’s a dearth of contenders at 135lbs. Aljamain Sterling, for instance, is on a 4-fight win streak and is ranked #2, while Petr Yan has never lost in the UFC at 6-0 and is ranked #3.

Whether it’s the UFC’s decision to go with Cruz rather than one of those two men – or whether Cejudo requested a fight with the bigger name – is a question mark. Either way, this is the fight we’re getting, and hopefully due to the Covid-19 issue, it won’t hold the division up for too long.

So who will pick up the win? In all honesty, it’s hard to look past Cejudo simply because of the amount of time Cruz has been on the shelf. Sure, ‘The Dominator’ has spent great swathes of time on the shelf before, but never quite this long.

He lost 35 months of his career between October 2011 and September 2014 due to various injuries. He then spent another 16 months out before returning in January 2016, and it’s true that on both occasions, he came back and looked fantastic. His 2014 comeback saw him shellack Takeya Mizugaki in a first-round TKO, while his 2016 return saw him dethrone Dillashaw to claim back the Bantamweight title he never lost.

But this time he’s been gone for an insane 40 months, and more to the point, he’s now 35 years old and is likely past his athletic prime. If anything, he appeared to be slowing down in his last fight, a dramatic loss to Cody Garbrandt.

The problem for Cruz is that in his prime, his footwork and movement was his biggest strength. Nobody could quite get a handle on how he would move around inside the Octagon, and he was able to catch opponents with strikes and takedowns that they simply wouldn’t expect.

In 2020, though? The years of injuries have likely added up and taken their toll, and his extended age will likely have slowed him down too. If he no longer has the movement that he had in his prime, it’s not unfair to suggest that he simply won’t be the same fighter.

There’s another caveat when it comes to this fight, too; Cejudo, an Olympic gold medallist in freestyle wrestling in 2008, will be by far the greatest wrestler Cruz has ever faced. ‘The Messenger’ has actually tended to strike more than wrestle in his most recent fights, but his powerful takedowns are always there to fall back on – as Moraes discovered – and his ground-and-pound can be ruthless.

Cruz’s wrestling is probably the most underrated facet of his game; he threw Demetrious Johnson around, for instance, and comfortably outgrappled Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. But Cejudo will be on another level entirely, and it’s simply unlikely that we’ll see ‘The Dominator’ take him down.

Overall – lack of personal rivalry notwithstanding – the fight that this reminds me most of is Tito Ortiz’s first clash with Ken Shamrock back in 2002. In both instances, it sees a monstrous champion at the very top of their game, seemingly improving in all areas at a rapid pace, against a former great who’s now past his prime and who has suffered serious injuries.

Incredibly, Shamrock – who felt like an old man at the time of that fight at UFC 40 – was only three years older at that stage than Cruz is now. And of course, Ortiz simply destroyed ‘The World’s Most Dangerous Man’ in ruthless fashion – showing once and for all that time waits for no man.

I see no difference here, and I think this one will be just as one-sided as that fight was. I’m taking Cejudo via second-round TKO – and I fully suspect Cruz will hang up his gloves for good when all is said and done, and hopefully be inducted into the UFC’s Hall of Fame soon.

The Pick: Cejudo via second-round TKO

#2 Welterweight: Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis

Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone first clashed back in 2013, with Pettis winning via TKO

Incredibly, this fantastic-sounding Lightweight tilt will be on the preliminary card, headlining the ESPN portion of the show. Quite why the UFC didn’t put it onto the main card ahead of Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro is anyone’s guess, but then card placement has always been a weak point of the promotion.

At any rate, the big question here is whether Donaldo Cerrone can avenge the loss he suffered at the hands of ‘Showtime’ back in 2013. That fight saw Anthony Pettis hit ‘Cowboy’ with one of his trademark body kicks, and Cerrone simply couldn’t recover from it, collapsing seconds later to hand Pettis a first-round TKO win.

Since then, both men have been on fascinating runs up and down the UFC, across numerous weight classes. Pettis, of course, won the Lightweight title, lost it to Rafael Dos Anjos, dropped to 145lbs briefly, moved back up to 155lbs and even had a brief foray at 170lbs before returning to 155lbs in January – where he suffered a disappointing loss to Diego Ferreira.

Cerrone meanwhile has had a ludicrous 26 fights since that original clash, going 17-9, but his most recent fights have shown a worrying trend. While he’s still a fantastic offensive fighter, ‘Cowboy’ simply doesn’t weather punishment like he used to be able to. He’s lost his last three fights, all by TKO, and lasted just 40 seconds with Conor McGregor in January.

Pettis has taken plenty of damage himself, but he does seem to be slightly more durable than Cerrone at this stage. With that said, the fact that this fight is going to take place at 170lbs should be a little worrying for him. ‘Showtime’ was never the biggest 155lber, and he’ll likely be giving up a decent amount of size to his opponent this weekend.

Despite that, I think I’m leaning towards Pettis in this fight. Firstly, the fact is that due to style alone, he’s still a bad match for Cerrone. ‘Showtime’ is quite a lot quicker than ‘Cowboy’ and chambers his strikes – particularly his body kicks – at an alarmingly fast rate. Cerrone is a much more methodical striker, but against faster men – McGregor, Justin Gaethje, Jorge Masvidal – he’s always been susceptible to a rush of offense.

More to the point, Cerrone still doesn’t take well to an opponent who can corral him, and Pettis is certainly capable of that, particularly with the range his kicking ability gives him. If anything, Cerrone might be better off looking to pressure ‘Showtime’ and grapple with him – but pressing the action from the early stages of the fight isn’t something he’s adept at.

I definitely wouldn’t like to count ‘Cowboy’ out of this fight entirely; Pettis isn’t invincible by any means and Cerrone definitely has plenty of ways to finish fights, but I worry these days for his durability and wonder if all the fights and damage he’s taken are finally adding up for him. Therefore I’m going with Pettis via TKO, repeating his feat from 2013.

The Pick: Pettis via first-round TKO

#3 Heavyweight: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabricio Werdum

Fabricio Werdum last fought in March 2018 and has been suspended by USADA since

This Heavyweight clash of veterans also sits on the ESPN prelim card. It’s a match of big-time grapplers – the duo have nine submission wins in the UFC between them and are massively decorated on the mat – and that alone makes it intriguing. But who will come out on top?

We haven’t seen Fabricio Werdum for a long time inside the Octagon; he suffered a TKO at the hands of Alexander Volkov back in March 2018, but then tested positive for the banned substance trenbolone and was subsequently suspended by USADA. This will be his comeback – but at the age of 42, it’s questionable exactly how much longer he can stay at the top.

Aleksei Oleinik meanwhile is also 42 years old, but he’s been far more active recently than his opponent here. ‘The Boa Constrictor’ bounced back from two straight losses to submit Maurice Greene this January, but it’s fair to say that Werdum is on another level entirely to the TUF product.

The grappling may well turn out to be a wash here; you have to go back to 2004 to find the last time Oleinik was submitted, while Werdum – one of the best Heavyweight Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu players of all time – has never been tapped out. ‘Vai Cavalo’ may have a slight edge, but he’s never been the best wrestler and so that should help Oleinik to avoid any dangerous situations on the ground.

On the feet meanwhile – at least a couple of years ago – you’d have to favor Werdum. Oleinik swings with power, but he’s a plodding striker and certainly isn’t the fastest or most explosive Heavyweight. It was that lack of striking nuance that led him to his loss to Alistair Overeem, while Walt Harris simply used his superior athleticism to explode and put him away rapidly.

Werdum, on the other hand, doesn’t have knockout power per se, but he’s vicious in the clinch with elbows and punches, throws some nasty kicks and is adept at stalking a foe and landing strong shots from both the inside and outside. Of course, with that said, we don’t know how good the Brazilian is going to look coming back from such a long period away.

I’m going with the slight upset here and taking Oleinik; he’s not a great striker but he does have power, and Werdum – even at his peak – had a tendency to walk into big shots at times. Given he’ll probably be substantially slower and more plodding than he once was, I can definitely see a situation where he walks into a sledgehammer from ‘The Boa Constrictor’ and goes down, and that will be that.

The Pick: Oleinik via second-round KO

#4 Strawweight: Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson

Michelle Waterson's kicks will be a dangerous weapon against Carla Esparza

Despite it being tricky to imagine either woman receiving a title shot within the next year, this Strawweight fight is still a fascinating and important one in the division. Esparza – the UFC's inaugural Strawweight champion – has had an up-and-down career since losing her title, but she is on a two-fight win streak right now.

Waterson meanwhile was last seen in a tough loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a loss that snapped a 3-fight win streak and probably cost her a title shot, given Joanna went onto her famous fight with Weili Zhang at UFC 248.

For me, Waterson has to be the favorite in this fight. On paper, at least, it feels like a classic striker (Waterson) vs. grappler (Esparza) match, but that'd be doing a disservice to both women. 'The Karate Hottie' might love throwing kicks, but she's also an underrated wrestler and grappler in her own right.

Esparza meanwhile has improved her striking throughout her UFC career, to the point where many people felt her boxing should've earned her the nod from the judges in her 2018 clash with Claudia Gadelha. With that said, her wrestling and top game remains the strongest area of her game.

The issue for 'The Cookie Monster' in this fight stems from her size. Esparza stands at just 5'1" and while she's only two inches shorter than Waterson, her style simply isn't adept at dealing with the kind of rangy attack that 'The Karate Hottie' brings.

To win this fight, Esparza will need to get inside that length and prevent Waterson from landing kicks from the outside, and I have a tough time seeing her doing that. And then there's the question of what would happen if Waterson can take Esparza down? 'The Karate Hottie' isn't a wrestler on the level of Esparza, but she is capable of surprising an opponent with a trip or a throw from the clinch.

Should she do that, Esparza may well be in trouble. 'The Cookie Monster' was destroyed by Tatiana Suarez when she was put on her back, and she also struggled with the grappling of Randa Markos in their fightback in 2017. If Esparza gets a takedown, on the other hand, it's easy to see a scenario where Waterson could survive and work her way back to her feet.

In the end, Esparza is going to need to replicate the dynamic gameplan of Tecia Torres in her fight with Waterson to win this one, and I just don't think she's got the speed and the striking skill to pull that off. I think 'The Karate Hottie' should comfortably outpoint the former champion here.

The Pick: Waterson via unanimous decision

#5 Featherweight: Bryce Mitchell vs. Charles Rosa

Bryce Mitchell became the second UFC fighter to win via twister in 2019

At one point, it looked like Featherweight Bryce Mitchell was destined to be a punchline in the world of MMA; the undefeated prospect made headlines in 2018 by somehow tearing his scrotum with a power drill, something that overshadowed the fact that he’s actually a pretty good fighter.

That all changed in December 2019, when he became only the second fighter to use the famed ‘twister’ spinal crank to submit a foe inside the Octagon. The win – over Matt Sayles – took Mitchell to 3-0 in the UFC, and now ‘Thug Nasty’ has a chance to move further up the ranks when he takes on Charles Rosa.

Rosa is a journeyman extraordinaire; ‘Boston Strong’ spent over two years on the shelf between 2017 and 2019 with a neck injury, but returned to submit Manny Bermudez last October. That win took him to 3-3 in the UFC, with his wins all coming over lower-level opponents and his losses coming to higher-ranked fighters like Yair Rodriguez and Shane Burgos.

Basically then, this should be an indicator of whether Mitchell has the talent to reach the top of the UFC. Only Burgos – a remarkably heavy hitter – has ever stopped Rosa, and so if Mitchell could pull that off, it’d be a huge feather in his cap.

Overall this looks like an evenly matched fight; both men have solid skills in all areas, but I think Mitchell has more potential than Rosa and is the more likely of the two to have been improving consistently. I’ll take him to win via decision – but wouldn’t be surprised if this one goes the other way.

The Pick: Mitchell via unanimous decision