UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks (Part Two)

#2 Welterweight: Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis

Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone first clashed back in 2013, with Pettis winning via TKO

Incredibly, this fantastic-sounding Lightweight tilt will be on the preliminary card, headlining the ESPN portion of the show. Quite why the UFC didn’t put it onto the main card ahead of Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan de Castro is anyone’s guess, but then card placement has always been a weak point of the promotion.

At any rate, the big question here is whether Donaldo Cerrone can avenge the loss he suffered at the hands of ‘Showtime’ back in 2013. That fight saw Anthony Pettis hit ‘Cowboy’ with one of his trademark body kicks, and Cerrone simply couldn’t recover from it, collapsing seconds later to hand Pettis a first-round TKO win.

Since then, both men have been on fascinating runs up and down the UFC, across numerous weight classes. Pettis, of course, won the Lightweight title, lost it to Rafael Dos Anjos, dropped to 145lbs briefly, moved back up to 155lbs and even had a brief foray at 170lbs before returning to 155lbs in January – where he suffered a disappointing loss to Diego Ferreira.

Cerrone meanwhile has had a ludicrous 26 fights since that original clash, going 17-9, but his most recent fights have shown a worrying trend. While he’s still a fantastic offensive fighter, ‘Cowboy’ simply doesn’t weather punishment like he used to be able to. He’s lost his last three fights, all by TKO, and lasted just 40 seconds with Conor McGregor in January.

Pettis has taken plenty of damage himself, but he does seem to be slightly more durable than Cerrone at this stage. With that said, the fact that this fight is going to take place at 170lbs should be a little worrying for him. ‘Showtime’ was never the biggest 155lber, and he’ll likely be giving up a decent amount of size to his opponent this weekend.

Despite that, I think I’m leaning towards Pettis in this fight. Firstly, the fact is that due to style alone, he’s still a bad match for Cerrone. ‘Showtime’ is quite a lot quicker than ‘Cowboy’ and chambers his strikes – particularly his body kicks – at an alarmingly fast rate. Cerrone is a much more methodical striker, but against faster men – McGregor, Justin Gaethje, Jorge Masvidal – he’s always been susceptible to a rush of offense.

More to the point, Cerrone still doesn’t take well to an opponent who can corral him, and Pettis is certainly capable of that, particularly with the range his kicking ability gives him. If anything, Cerrone might be better off looking to pressure ‘Showtime’ and grapple with him – but pressing the action from the early stages of the fight isn’t something he’s adept at.

I definitely wouldn’t like to count ‘Cowboy’ out of this fight entirely; Pettis isn’t invincible by any means and Cerrone definitely has plenty of ways to finish fights, but I worry these days for his durability and wonder if all the fights and damage he’s taken are finally adding up for him. Therefore I’m going with Pettis via TKO, repeating his feat from 2013.

The Pick: Pettis via first-round TKO