UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks (Part Two)

#3 Heavyweight: Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabricio Werdum

Fabricio Werdum last fought in March 2018 and has been suspended by USADA since

This Heavyweight clash of veterans also sits on the ESPN prelim card. It’s a match of big-time grapplers – the duo have nine submission wins in the UFC between them and are massively decorated on the mat – and that alone makes it intriguing. But who will come out on top?

We haven’t seen Fabricio Werdum for a long time inside the Octagon; he suffered a TKO at the hands of Alexander Volkov back in March 2018, but then tested positive for the banned substance trenbolone and was subsequently suspended by USADA. This will be his comeback – but at the age of 42, it’s questionable exactly how much longer he can stay at the top.

Aleksei Oleinik meanwhile is also 42 years old, but he’s been far more active recently than his opponent here. ‘The Boa Constrictor’ bounced back from two straight losses to submit Maurice Greene this January, but it’s fair to say that Werdum is on another level entirely to the TUF product.

The grappling may well turn out to be a wash here; you have to go back to 2004 to find the last time Oleinik was submitted, while Werdum – one of the best Heavyweight Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu players of all time – has never been tapped out. ‘Vai Cavalo’ may have a slight edge, but he’s never been the best wrestler and so that should help Oleinik to avoid any dangerous situations on the ground.

On the feet meanwhile – at least a couple of years ago – you’d have to favor Werdum. Oleinik swings with power, but he’s a plodding striker and certainly isn’t the fastest or most explosive Heavyweight. It was that lack of striking nuance that led him to his loss to Alistair Overeem, while Walt Harris simply used his superior athleticism to explode and put him away rapidly.

Werdum, on the other hand, doesn’t have knockout power per se, but he’s vicious in the clinch with elbows and punches, throws some nasty kicks and is adept at stalking a foe and landing strong shots from both the inside and outside. Of course, with that said, we don’t know how good the Brazilian is going to look coming back from such a long period away.

I’m going with the slight upset here and taking Oleinik; he’s not a great striker but he does have power, and Werdum – even at his peak – had a tendency to walk into big shots at times. Given he’ll probably be substantially slower and more plodding than he once was, I can definitely see a situation where he walks into a sledgehammer from ‘The Boa Constrictor’ and goes down, and that will be that.

The Pick: Oleinik via second-round KO