UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks (Part Two)

#4 Strawweight: Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson

Michelle Waterson's kicks will be a dangerous weapon against Carla Esparza

Despite it being tricky to imagine either woman receiving a title shot within the next year, this Strawweight fight is still a fascinating and important one in the division. Esparza – the UFC's inaugural Strawweight champion – has had an up-and-down career since losing her title, but she is on a two-fight win streak right now.

Waterson meanwhile was last seen in a tough loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, a loss that snapped a 3-fight win streak and probably cost her a title shot, given Joanna went onto her famous fight with Weili Zhang at UFC 248.

For me, Waterson has to be the favorite in this fight. On paper, at least, it feels like a classic striker (Waterson) vs. grappler (Esparza) match, but that'd be doing a disservice to both women. 'The Karate Hottie' might love throwing kicks, but she's also an underrated wrestler and grappler in her own right.

Esparza meanwhile has improved her striking throughout her UFC career, to the point where many people felt her boxing should've earned her the nod from the judges in her 2018 clash with Claudia Gadelha. With that said, her wrestling and top game remains the strongest area of her game.

The issue for 'The Cookie Monster' in this fight stems from her size. Esparza stands at just 5'1" and while she's only two inches shorter than Waterson, her style simply isn't adept at dealing with the kind of rangy attack that 'The Karate Hottie' brings.

To win this fight, Esparza will need to get inside that length and prevent Waterson from landing kicks from the outside, and I have a tough time seeing her doing that. And then there's the question of what would happen if Waterson can take Esparza down? 'The Karate Hottie' isn't a wrestler on the level of Esparza, but she is capable of surprising an opponent with a trip or a throw from the clinch.

Should she do that, Esparza may well be in trouble. 'The Cookie Monster' was destroyed by Tatiana Suarez when she was put on her back, and she also struggled with the grappling of Randa Markos in their fightback in 2017. If Esparza gets a takedown, on the other hand, it's easy to see a scenario where Waterson could survive and work her way back to her feet.

In the end, Esparza is going to need to replicate the dynamic gameplan of Tecia Torres in her fight with Waterson to win this one, and I just don't think she's got the speed and the striking skill to pull that off. I think 'The Karate Hottie' should comfortably outpoint the former champion here.

The Pick: Waterson via unanimous decision