UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

#5 Featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Jeremy Stephens

Calvin Kattar has become one of the world's most dangerous Featherweights

This Featherweight fight should be a lot of fun. It pits one of the best up-and-comers in the division against a dangerous veteran. Although it’s worth noting that somehow, Stephens is only a year older than Kattar.

Of course, Kattar’s experience levels – he’s 4-2 in the UFC – can’t compare to those of ‘Lil Heathen’, who has been in the UFC since 2007 (!) and has had 32 fights inside the Octagon. But is the punishment that Stephens has weathered over the years finally starting to catch up with him? Perhaps.

You’ve now got to go back to February 2018 to find his last victory. He was knocked out by Jose Aldo in July 2018, his first loss by stoppage since 2012. And since then, he’s been firmly outpointed by both Zabit Magomedsharipov and Yair Rodriguez. Both fights followed a similar pattern, too, with ‘Lil Heathen’ being outworked largely in all areas, particularly on the ground.

Kattar, who coincidentally lost to Magomedsharipov in his last fight, isn’t really known for his grappling. A striker by trade, he hits extremely hard, but isn’t that varied on the feet, preferring to use his leg kicks to set up his boxing game.

Stephens is perhaps the hardest hitter he’s faced in his UFC career thus far. But he’s also not that nuanced himself. He was basically outpointed by Renato Moicano’s jab when they fought in 2017. And while he’s added some tools into his skillset - mainly some hard leg kicks - he remains a power puncher first and foremost.

That means that this one is likely to come down to who can hit the other the hardest first, and I’m favoring Kattar. This is purely because he hasn’t taken so much damage, and is probably in the prime of his career. This is in contrast to Stephens, who’s at the tail-end. Will ‘The Boston Finisher’ live up to his nickname? I’m not so sure, but I’m confident that he can outpoint his more experienced foe.

The Pick: Kattar via unanimous decision