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#6 Heavyweight: Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Francis Ngannou should earn a title shot with a win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik

This fight was all set to headline the UFC’s show on ESPN on March 28th before COVID-19 struck. So it’s, well, it’s cool we’re getting to see it even if it’s coming under these odd circumstances. The winner is likely to face the winner of the Stipe Miocic/Daniel Cormier rematch for the UFC’s Heavyweight title, meaning there are big stakes here.

Ngannou, of course, fought Miocic for the title unsuccessfully back in January 2018 and then looked finished when he lost to Derrick Lewis in one of the worst fights of all time. But, he has since bounced back well, taking out Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez, and Junior Dos Santos all by KO.

Rozenstruik meanwhile has rocketed up the ranks in the division. He only debuted in the Octagon last February but has KO’d four opponents already, including Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem. Essentially, ‘Bigi Boy’ is the division’s new Mark Hunt. Albeit, we don’t know whether he has the same iron head as the Australian-based brawler.

He looks like he should be a sloppy, non-athletic fighter, and yet he’s actually incredibly smooth with his strikes, with expert timing on practically everything he throws. And even when he doesn’t appear to be throwing with full power, his accuracy and naturally heavy hands mean he can hurt opponents in devastating fashion.

With that said, until he landed the punch that dropped Overeem – almost tearing his top lip off in the process – he was handily losing that fight. The Dutchman was patiently out-striking him from the outside and mixed in takedowns and ground-and-pound, something that Rozenstruik had little defense against.

If this were a pure striking match, it’d be a hard one to call; Ngannou hits as hard as any fighter in UFC history and can take out anyone with a big shot. But, he’s also not the most technical striker. On the other hand, Rozenstruik has years of experience in kickboxing and is surprisingly nuanced – even if his UFC KO’s thus far have all come against notoriously chinny opponents.

However, it’s not pure striking. And those fights against Miocic and Lewis aside, ‘The Predator’ has proven himself to be underrated when it comes to knowing exactly what to do and when. We saw an example of this when he surprised people by taking Anthony Hamilton down and submitting him with a kimura.

With that in mind, you can bet that he knows the success that Overeem had with Rozenstruik on the ground and should be happy to look to copy that gameplan. Considering that this fight will be over three rounds – compared to five for the Overeem fight – there’s more chance that Ngannou will be able to simply outwork ‘Bigi Boy’ without eating that one big shot, or perhaps even submit him.

The Pick: Ngannou via unanimous decision