UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer - Predictions and Picks

#2 Bantamweight: Raphael Assuncao vs. Cody Garbrandt

Can former champion Cody Garbrandt get back to his winning ways this weekend?

Just a couple of years ago, this could easily have been a UFC Bantamweight title fight. Cody Garbrandt famously dethroned Dominick Cruz for the title in December 2016 and unbeaten at the time at 11-0, it looked like he’d spend a long time on the throne.

Assuncao meanwhile was in the midst of a lengthy winning streak, and a tight loss to TJ Dillashaw aside, was 11-1 since moving to 135lbs in 2011. Why was the Brazilian never given a crack at the gold? Firstly, the loss to Dillashaw came bang in the middle of his run, arresting his momentum, and his lack of personality meant that the UFC were always willing to overlook him.

However, since then, both men have run into difficulties. Assuncao was definitively beaten by Marlon Moraes last February, knocked down and choked out inside the first round, and in his rebound fight, he was outpointed by the rising Cory Sandhagen.

Garbrandt however has seen his stock fall even further. A series of injuries meant he spent the majority of his time as Bantamweight champ on the shelf, and in his return fight, he was knocked out by bitter rival Dillashaw in the second round – but only after having his former teammate in serious trouble in the first.

A rematch was booked, but this time it went even worse for Garbrandt, who was overwhelmed after 4 minutes. Most recently, ‘No Love’ was knocked out by Pedro Munhoz, being drawn into a brawl in a fight that he was actually winning and coming up second-best.

That, in a nutshell, has been Garbrandt’s problem. When he manages to stay calm, ‘No Love’ can be outright cerebral. He cut Cruz up in their fight for instance, using sharp boxing and excellent footwork, and also stayed calm to piece up the wilder Thomas Almeida back in 2016.

His most recent losses on the other hand have been largely caused by an inability to keep his emotions in check. The issue with his former teammate Dillashaw meant that he came in far too fired up and willing to brawl, and his downfall against Munhoz was largely triggered by his anger following an accidental clash of heads.

Essentially, if he can keep his head calm then ‘No Love’ is a very dangerous fighter. His boxing is as sharp as anyone’s in the division, his footwork is genuinely excellent when he’s on form, and his solid wrestling means that while he isn’t a threat on the ground, he’s not likely to be taken down and held down either.

Assuncao on the other hand is a meat-and-potatoes fighter who’s solid in all areas, but isn’t outstanding in any either. A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, he offers a submission threat, but in reality he hasn’t actually tapped an opponent since 2013.

He’s been more of a successful positional grappler, but against a wrestler as good as ‘No Love’ – particularly one who doesn’t necessarily want to grapple – then it’s hard to see him having too much success.

On the feet meanwhile, he’s shown KO power on a couple of occasions – and against a fighter as chinny as Cody Garbrandt, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him land something heavy – but again, he’s mainly been a solid, no-frills striker.

To me then, this comes down to whether Garbrandt can keep his head in the game without being drawn into a wild shootout, which – due to Cody’s compromised chin – would be massively dangerous for him. Given Assuncao isn’t exactly an offensive personality and the head-clash in the Munhoz fight was somewhat of a freak accident, I’m thinking there’s every possibility that ‘No Love’ can stay calm.

And if he stays calm? Then I see no reason why he can’t use his boxing to pick Assuncao apart over the course of three rounds. He’ll be the faster man, the harder hitter, and with Assuncao getting no younger – he’s 38 next month – for me this is a winnable fight for the former champ.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt via unanimous decision