UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer - Predictions and Picks

#5 Bantamweight: Eddie Wineland vs. Sean O’Malley

Sean O'Malley is one of the UFC's fastest rising stars

This is a piece of classic UFC matchmaking; a potential star on the rise, unbeaten in MMA and just 25 years old taking on a battle-tested veteran, but one who’s also likely at the very tail-end of his career. Sure, Wineland did win his last fight – knocking out Grigory Popov – but at 35 years old, he’s definitely slowed down over the past few years.

The former WEC Bantamweight champ – who held the title back in 2006 – has been one of the more reliable fighters in the division since debuting in the UFC back in 2011. Losses to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez got him off on the wrong foot, but his striking skills then netted him a title shot against then-champ Renan Barao in 2013.

Wineland came up short there, and has since gone 4-4 in the Octagon. He’s still a dangerous technical striker, but he’s slower than he once was, is far less durable, and has never been the greatest grappler at 135lbs.

O’Malley meanwhile exploded onto the scene in 2017 via Dana White’s Contender Series. Impressive wins over Terrion Ware, Andre Soukhamthath and Jose Quinonez have since followed, with ‘Sugar Sean’ looking better in each fight.

Issues with PEDs – he tested positive for the banned substance ostarine in 2018 – have plagued his UFC career thus far, but judging by what we’ve seen so far, he’s dangerous in all areas, has tremendous athleticism, and his ceiling looks to be very high indeed.

Unless O’Malley gets drawn into a pure striking match with Wineland, this should be his fight to lose. He’s bigger than the former champ and has a reach advantage of 3”, but it still wouldn’t be wise for him to get into a firefight with the veteran. Sure, there’s every chance he could knock Wineland out – but he’d also be playing into the veteran’s hands, too.

‘Sugar Sean’ would undoubtedly be better off using his striking to set up a takedown, and while he hasn’t got an extensive record of submission wins to his name, there’s no doubt he’s more than capable on the ground; he went to a draw in a pure grappling match with Gilbert Melendez late last year, for instance.

Assuming O’Malley’s fight IQ isn’t downright terrible then – and it hasn’t seemed that way based on his UFC career thus far – this should theoretically be a good fight for him. I suspect he’ll look to use his reach to hit Wineland from the outside before capitalising on his opportunities to get a takedown. Once he does that, he’ll either hunt for a choke – or perhaps even look to pound Wineland out.

The Pick: O’Malley via second round submission