UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC World Bantamweight Title: Jose Aldo vs. Petr Yan

Can Jose Aldo become the UFC's latest dual-weight champ by beating Petr Yan for the UFC Bantamweight title?

It’s pretty crazy to think that the last time we saw a UFC Bantamweight title fight was only two months ago. That fight saw champ Henry Cejudo defend successfully against legendary former champ Dominick Cruz – only to retire after the fight.

The UFC usually takes a longer period to sort out a vacant title, but in this case, they haven’t messed around. Of course, that hasn’t stopped the detractors from complaining greatly. In this instance, those complaints stem from the involvement of Aldo.

The legendary former UFC Featherweight kingpin has only ever fought once at 135lbs. And that fight saw him suffer a decision loss to Marlon Moraes at UFC 245. However, while it’s true that no fighter should earn a title shot coming off a loss (unless it’s an immediate rematch), the case of ‘Scarface’ is a little different.

Many people – myself included – wrote off Aldo’s chances against Moraes. At 33 years old it felt like he was probably past his prime, and he’d struggled to make 145lbs at times, let alone 135lbs. And more to the point, he was faced with a horribly dangerous foe.

And yet Aldo hit the 135lbs mark with ease, looking trimmed down and extremely healthy. And while Moraes hurt him early in the fight, Aldo came storming back in the later rounds. To many observers, including myself, he actually did enough to win the fight.

Aldo looked as quick as he’d ever done at 145lbs. And his combinations looked amazing at times, as he ripped Moraes with punches to the body and head while eating up plenty of heavy shots in return. Most impressive was the fact that he didn’t slow down at all, and kept the pressure on Moraes throughout the fight.

All that bodes well for his chances here, even if there’s an argument that he shouldn’t be receiving a title shot. Win, and he'll become the UFC's newest dual-weight champion. He'd also have an argument for being one of the greatest UFC fighters of all time.

However, there’s one big problem. He’s faced with a genuinely monstrous opponent in the form of Yan.

‘No Mercy’ is 14-1 overall and is unbeaten in the UFC at 6-0. The Russian has faced a number of dangerous opponents, including Jimmie Rivera, John Dodson, and Urijah Faber – but none have come close to solving the puzzle.

What makes Yan so dangerous is primarily his footwork. He’s an excellent striker overall, capable of throwing ultra-fast combinations with extreme power, but it’s how he sets those strikes up that sets him apart. His footwork allows him to corral his opponent towards the fence, where he can then open up with serious violence.

The Russian isn’t invulnerable. Both Dodson and Rivera hurt him with their own strikes, with Rivera actually out-striking him for periods and Dodson knocking him down. But on both occasions, Yan’s chin held up and his incredible power pulled him through.

The question for me then is simple. Can Aldo avoid being forced backwards into the fence by Yan’s footwork and pressure? If he can do that, then he’s definitely in with a chance here. The Brazilian is a much more effective kickboxer overall than both Dodson or Rivera and has far more experience than the Russian overall.

However, it’s also worth noting that when he fought Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 237 in 2019, Aldo did have a lot of trouble when the Aussie was able to back him up and corral him. Is Yan as skilled a striker as Volkanovski? He isn’t as proven, but the early evidence would suggest that that is the case.

For me, this should come down to who can control the cage in the early rounds. If Yan can establish a lead by forcing Aldo backwards, then the likelihood is that he’ll eventually break the older man down. But if Aldo can avoid being corralled, can work the Russian over with leg kicks, and chain his combos together, then who knows?

Overall it’s a very tricky fight to pick, but I’m going with Yan. As the younger man, he’s more likely to weather the storm that Aldo can bring, while I suspect the Brazilian may end up wilting under his power.

The Pick: Yan via third-round TKO