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#5 UFC Flyweight Division: Paige VanZant vs. Amanda Ribas

Could Paige VanZant leave the UFC for pastures new after this weekend?

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen VanZant in action and interestingly, it could be the last time under the UFC banner, too. ’12 Gauge’ last fought in January 2019, defeating Rachael Ostovich by armbar. Since then she’s been on the shelf rehabbing an arm injury, and there are a ton of questions around her future.

This fight is the final one on her UFC contract, and she’s already stated that she wants to test her value on the free market. That suggests that the UFC won’t offer her the money she’s after – and to be frank, it’s hard to blame them.

Sure, VanZant is hugely marketable. She’s appeared on Dancing with the Stars, starred in Sports Illustrated’s famous swimsuit edition, and has a ton of Instagram followers. But in terms of her fight skills, she’s arguably been a bust.

VanZant entered into the UFC back in 2014 and initially went 3-0 over a trio of tough veterans. Fighting a lot like early Diego Sanchez, ’12 Gauge’ used her pace, pressure, and grappling to break her foes down. A loss to Rose Namajunas in late 2015 showed she had a lot to learn, but since then, it could be argued that she’s regressed.

Sure, her striking has improved somewhat, as we saw when she knocked out Bec Rawlings with a jumping switch kick. But her grappling doesn’t appear to be as strong as it once was, and while she did submit Ostovich in her last outing, it was largely set up by a mistake on Ostovich’s part.

More worryingly for her, this fight looks like an extremely tough one. Ribas is a highly technical, patient striker with a ramrod jab and some extremely dangerous kicks.

She first came to the fore by clearly outpointing famed grappler Mackenzie Dern, easily out-striking her over three rounds. And more recently, she overcame tricky veteran Randa Markos, beating her essentially in every possible area.

How well Ribas’ skills will translate to 125lbs is a question mark, admittedly, but it’s not like she’s faced with a former Bantamweight here. VanZant never missed the 115lbs mark and while being at 125lbs should give her more energy, she certainly isn’t likely to hold a big strength advantage.

Add in the fact that traditionally, the UFC simply doesn’t favor fighters who express an interest in testing the market, and I believe VanZant is in trouble here. The UFC likely won’t want her leaving the promotion on the back of a big win, and so Ribas is the perfect opponent. She’s unheralded, and yet still possesses more than enough skill to pick up a win.

VanZant is tough and may last the distance, but I don’t see this one ending well for her at all.

The Pick: Ribas via unanimous decision