UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal - Predictions and Picks

#7: UFC 251 Early Prelims: ESPN card

Flyweight Raulian Paiva headlines UFC 251's early prelims

A further four prelim fights this weekend will also be shown on ESPN, ESPN+, and UFC Fight Pass.

At Flyweight, Raulian Paiva faces newcomer Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Paiva is coming off his first UFC win – a knockout of Mark De La Rosa – but prior to that he’d dropped his first two fights in the promotion. Zhumagulov meanwhile is 13-3, and most recently defeated former title challenger Ali Bagautinov.

This one is a tough fight to pick. Kazakhstan’s Zhumagulov is a very unknown quantity, but has a strong record, while Paiva has somewhat flattered to deceive. I’ll take the newcomer via decision, but it could go either way.

At Bantamweight, Karol Rosa squares off with Vanessa Melo. Rosa picked up her UFC debut win last August, while we last saw Melo in November, being out-pointed by Tracy Cortez. In this battle of Brazilians, I’m favoring Rosa. Melo hasn’t really shown much outside of toughness in her UFC outings thus far, and Rosa is also the more accomplished fighter overall. The pick, therefore, is Rosa via decision.

In the men’s Bantamweight division, the UK’s Davey Grant faces Hawaii’s Martin Day. Grant hasn’t fared well in the UFC thus far, going 2-3, but he’s a tricky veteran with skills in all areas. Day meanwhile is a bit of an unknown quantity, with just a single UFC fight – back in 2018 – to his name. Grant definitely isn’t unbeatable, but I like his UFC experience to pull him through to a decision win here.

Finally at Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura faces late replacement and newcomer Maxim Grishin. A longtime veteran of both the PFL and M-1 Global promotions, Grishin is 30-7 overall. In his most recent fights, he’s gone 7-0-2, with his only recent loss coming in 2016 to top prospect Magomed Ankalaev.

Tybura once looked like a genuine prospect to watch. His win over Andrei Arlovski threw him into title contention, but losses to the likes of Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai have shunted him way down the ladder. With a full camp, I’d be tempted to favor Grishin here, but who knows what kind of shape he’ll come in at? With that in mind, I’ll take ‘Tybur’ via TKO.