UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 - Predictions and Picks

For the third year in a row, the UFC’s big summer pay-per-view is set to be headlined by a UFC Heavyweight title fight between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier.

This weekend’s UFC 252 – which will take place at Las Vegas’ UFC APEX facility – marks the trilogy bout between two legends. And the winner should have a claim to being the best big man in UFC history.

Elsewhere on the card, we’ve got major fights at Heavyweight, Bantamweight, and Light-Heavyweight.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3.

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#1 UFC Heavyweight Title: Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier

Stipe Miocic's second fight with Daniel Cormier was an all-time classic

This trilogy bout has been a long time coming – essentially, the rivalry between these two men dates back to 2018. That summer saw then-Light-Heavyweight kingpin Cormier challenge Miocic for the Heavyweight title at UFC 226, hoping to become the UFC’s latest double champion.

Miocic came into that fight as the favorite, primarily because he’d defeated the monstrous Francis Ngannou just a few months earlier. On the night though, Cormier’s speed surprised him, and after a brief clinch, ‘DC’ landed a knockout blow and finished the champion off.

The second fight – at 2019’s UFC 241 – was completely different. Miocic had reportedly blamed the loss on the fact that he’d never really recovered from the shots he’d taken from Ngannou. That appeared to ring true in the second fight with Cormier, as he took some huge shots with basically no problem.

By the later rounds, it was actually Cormier who began to slow down – largely because he seemingly couldn’t knock Miocic out and was also taking some hefty shots to the body. Eventually, those body shots paid off, forced ‘DC’ to drop his hands, and allowed Miocic to become just the second man to stop him with strikes.

Neither man has fought since – a combination of injuries and COVID-19 slowing things down – but despite Ngannou’s run over the last 18 months, I don’t mind this trilogy fight. Why? Largely because the second bout between the two was one of the greatest Heavyweight fights in UFC history.

So which way will things go this time? It’s quite hard to say. Both men have shown they’re capable of knocking the other out, and it’s almost certain that Cormier will give Miocic’s striking more respect than he did last year.

Perhaps the biggest question then is whether Cormier decides to switch things up and use his wrestling. His credentials have been spoken about on plenty of occasions, but the key here is that at UFC 241, he won the first round by taking Miocic down and keeping him there, landing some good strikes in the process.

Miocic, on the other hand, was not able to take Cormier down despite attempting numerous takedowns in the same fight. So does this mean the advantage is with the challenger coming into this one? It’s possible.

However, ‘DC’ has never really fully relied on his wrestling despite having such an extensive background. It’s more likely that he’ll attempt to take Miocic out on his feet again, and to be honest, that makes it anyone’s fight.

Personally, I’m going with Miocic. Given Cormier is already 41 and hasn’t fought since last summer, I think there are more questions around how he’ll rebound from his knockout loss. Miocic hasn’t fought since then either, but he should come in with more confidence, he’ll be well-rested, and at 37 he’s closer to his prime than ‘DC’.

Cormier could win this fight with his wrestling, but can he keep Miocic grounded for five rounds? I’m not so sure, and if the fight is decided on the feet, then I’ve got to go with the champion’s cleaner boxing to repeat his feat from UFC 241.

The Pick: Miocic via third-round TKO

#2 UFC Bantamweight Division: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Sean O'Malley is looking to follow up his win over Eddie Wineland at UFC 250 with another big one here

After his win at UFC 250 over Eddie Wineland, the hype train on Sean O’Malley began to accelerate to a simply ludicrous pace. Plenty of fans called for the 25-year old to be put in with former UFC champion Cody Garbrandt next, but thankfully, the UFC have held off on that and instead matched him with a fighter slightly lower on the ladder.

That’s not to say that Vera isn’t a massively talented fighter in his own right. ‘Chito’ has won five of his last six in the UFC, and really should’ve won his most recent fight, as some questionable judging cost him a win over Song Yadong.

The native of Ecuador is a phenomenal offensive fighter, carrying knockout power in all of his strikes and possessing a venomous submission game on the ground. He’s also unbelievably tough, capable of taking serious punishment with no real issues.

As far as weaknesses go, ‘Chito’ seems to struggle with opponents who are capable of walking him down to land big shots – as Douglas Silva de Andrade and John Lineker both did in his last real losses. He’s also not the most physically strong 135lber, meaning it’s possible to bully him from the clinch.

To win this fight though, Vera’s best bet might be to aim for the clinch. O’Malley is a lanky Bantamweight at 5’11”, and his 72” reach gives him an advantage over Vera. Add in the fact that judging by his previous fights in the UFC, he’s a pinpoint striker who throws with a ton of power, and ‘Chito’ isn’t going to want to strike with him from the outside.

In all honesty, the biggest question around ‘Sugar Sean’ is how high his ceiling is. He’s looked fantastic throughout his UFC career thus far – even when he broke his foot fighting Andre Soukhamthath – but it’s also true that he hasn’t really been tested.

Wineland was clearly his most dangerous opponent to date, but the former WEC champ is also miles past his prime now and clearly struggled with the speed of O’Malley. But will Vera have the same issues? It’s hard to tell.

Basically, skill-for-skill, I’d be tempted to take Vera here. He’s more battle-tested, is more dangerous on the ground with submissions, and is probably O’Malley’s equal standing too. The issue he’s most likely to have, though, is the fact that he does have a tendency to come straight forward and look to exchange.

Against a striker of O’Malley’s skill and power, that’s very dangerous. If he can draw ‘Sugar Sean’ into a trade-off then there’s every chance he comes out on top, but if he just wades forward swinging, the likelihood is that O’Malley will cut some angles and catch him with something nasty as he did to Wineland.

Basically, we should learn plenty about O’Malley here, but only if Vera decides to fight smartly. I’m not sure that a point-fighting style is really in the Ecuadorian’s nature, and so I suspect O’Malley will pick him off to earn another big UFC win.

The Pick: O’Malley via unanimous decision

#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Can Jairzinho Rozenstruik take out a former UFC champ in the form of Junior Dos Santos?

Both of these big men are coming off devastating knockout losses; JDS to Curtis Blaydes, Rozenstruik to Francis Ngannou. That means that neither man is in UFC title contention right now, although a big win here would certainly push either back up the ranks.

Theoretically at least, this should be a striking battle. Sure, there are questions around Rozenstruik’s ground game, but thus far into his UFC career, only Alistair Overeem has looked to test him there. And of course, it’s hard to even recall Dos Santos shooting for a takedown at any stage.

So from a striking standpoint then, who has the advantage? They’re certainly very different strikers, that’s for sure. Dos Santos’s UFC career has essentially been built on the back of his boxing skills. He tends to fight behind his jab – he practically beat Blagoy Ivanov using his jab alone in 2018 – and also likes to dig to the body. Most of all though, he favors a powerful right hook when it comes to finishing his foes.

The Brazilian has been stopped by strikes before, with Cain Velasquez, Stipe Miocic, Ngannou, and Blaydes all finishing him by TKO. It’s worth noting though that none of the four really outstruck ‘Cigano’ per se.

Ngannou simply took advantage of a single opening – and his power is simply freakish, as Rozenstruik himself can attest to. Blaydes’ finish was set up largely by JDS being concerned about the takedown. And Miocic and Velasquez both used the clinch and dirty boxing to rough ‘Cigano’ up en route to their finishes.

Dos Santos clearly isn’t the fighter he was from 2008 to 2012, when he went unbeaten in the UFC and took out the likes of Fabricio Werdum, Velasquez and Frank Mir. He’s older, more shop-worn and doesn’t weather punishment quite so well. But against lesser strikers like Ivanov and Tai Tuivasa, he’s actually been fine.

Rozenstruik is a different challenge for him entirely. ‘Bigi Boy’ isn’t plodding by any means – for a big guy he’s deceptively quick – and he’s also a highly skilled technical kickboxer. Judging by his previous fights in the UFC, he’s more of a counter-striker, and we saw that style come up trumps in his wins over Andrei Arlovski and Allen Crowder.

His knockout of Overeem was less convincing – he was behind throughout the fight due to the veteran’s more rounded skillset – but when he had to pull something out of the bag, he did. In that instance, it was a crushing right hand that practically tore Overeem’s lip off his face.

For me then, this one comes down to a simple question: is Rozenstruik’s counter game good enough to allow him to catch JDS when he swings one of his power shots? If he’s not sharp enough – or doesn’t have a huge speed advantage over the former UFC champ – then there’s every chance he simply gets jabbed to death for a decision.

With that said, Dos Santos has looked less composed in his most recent UFC fights – the losses to Ngannou and Blaydes – and if he comes in as wildly as he did in the Ngannou fight in particular, then ‘Bigi Boy’ is definitely capable of landing a huge counter.

Given JDS’s deteriorated chin, slower nature, and Rozenstruik’s skills on the counter – and punching power – I’m leaning towards ‘Bigi Boy’ here. There’s every chance JDS outboxes him, but I’m more inclined to believe that his time has been and gone. Rozenstruik is the man on the upswing of his UFC career, and I think he takes this one by knockout.

The Pick: Rozenstruik via first-round knockout

#4 UFC Bantamweight Division: John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Former UFC title challenger John Dodson returned to form in February with his win over Nathaniel Wood

After going 0-2 in his first couple of UFC fights, Georgia’s Dvalishvili has reeled off four wins in a row. It’s no surprise then that he’s looking to make a step up here against clearly his toughest test to date.

At 35 years old, quite how much Dodson has left in the tank is anyone’s guess. It might be hard to believe, but he’s been in the UFC now for nearly a decade, debuting in December 2011 with a KO of TJ Dillashaw. Since then, it’s been an up-and-down career for him.

Essentially, ‘The Magician’ has always threatened to become a genuine title contender, if not a UFC champion at both 125lbs and 135lbs. However, he’s never quite gotten over the final hurdle. At Flyweight, that final hurdle was Demetrious Johnson, hardly a loss to be ashamed of. However, things have been slightly different at Bantamweight.

Dodson has never been finished in the UFC, but his style – low output, focusing on counters – has seen him come out on the wrong end of a lot of close decisions. Had he been slightly more aggressive, he would probably have beaten John Lineker and Marlon Moraes – and who knows what could’ve happened then.

More recently though, he hasn’t looked quite the same fighter as he did in his prime. His loss to Jimmie Rivera saw him fight in an extremely passive way, while Petr Yan was the first man to truly hurt him with strikes. He has bounced back since though, slowing the momentum of rising star Nathaniel Wood – picking up his first stoppage since 2016 in the process.

This fight is interesting for him because it’s the first time he’s been faced with a grappler rather than a striker since he fought Manny Gamburyan in 2016. Obviously, Gamburyan was knocked out in a matter of seconds – so realistically, you’ve got to go back to his first fight with Johnson to find an opponent who really looked to primarily grapple with him.

Can Dvalishvili find any kind of success, then? It’s very debatable. ‘The Machine’ is a fantastic grappler, of that there can be no doubt. He’s taken down basically every opponent he’s faced in the UFC, basically ragdolling the likes of Casey Kenney and Gustavo Lopez in recent fights.

However, Dodson’s takedown defense has always been one of his strengths. And given Dvalishvili hasn’t finished any of his UFC opponents, it’s simply hard to imagine a situation where he holds ‘The Magician’ down for a three-round decision.

Unless Dodson’s athleticism has fallen off a cliff, then – and the Wood fight suggested that’s not the case – I can definitely see him being able to stuff Dvalishvili’s takedowns, or simply bouncing to his feet if he is taken down.

And on the feet, given Dodson’s explosive speed and incredible power, this fight is probably a whitewash. I don’t think it’ll necessarily be easy for ‘The Magician’, but based on Dvalishvili’s aggression in his previous fights, he could play into Dodson’s hands. This one could get violent.

The Pick: Dodson via second-round KO

#5 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba

Magomed Ankalaev's first fight with Ion Cutelaba was perhaps the weirdest UFC clash of 2020 thus far

This one is a rematch of what was probably 2020’s weirdest fight. And given what’s happened this year, that’s saying a lot! Two of the UFC Light-Heavyweight division’s best prospects, the two men were matched up back in late February at UFC Fight Night 169.

It sounded like a fascinating fight pitting Ankalaev’s stoic style against Cutelaba’s sheer wildness, but nobody could’ve seen the levels of insanity that we got coming.

Things got weird before the fight had even begun. Cutelaba – who has a tendency to stare his opponent down from close range during the ring introductions – got a little too close for comfort as Bruce Buffer yelled his name.

And so, despite still maintaining a blank expression, Ankalaev grabbed him in a bodylock and spun him into the cage, forcing UFC officials to flood in to stop the fight from starting before it’d officially begun. Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed and the two men were separated. Somehow though, the weirdness wasn’t over.

When the fight began, the two simply traded strikes wildly, and it looked like Ankalaev had Cutelaba in trouble. While he was wobbled though, he certainly wasn’t out. Evidently, referee Kevin MacDonald decided otherwise though and stepped in to stop the fight after just 38 seconds. To say it was a poor stoppage would be an understatement.

Evidently, the UFC agreed, and thus the two have been rematched here. Hopefully, things can go a little more to plan this time – but who will win?

In the first fight, I picked Ankalaev, feeling that his powerful grappling would be enough to outwork the wilder Cutelaba for a decision. My worry was that the Dagestani would fold under the wild striking power of ‘The Hulk’ but based on the 38 seconds we saw, that wasn’t the case at all.

In fact, Ankalaev looked far sharper than Cutelaba standing, and even if MacDonald hadn’t stepped in, it certainly didn’t look like a fight he was about to lose. Add in the fact that he’s a truly monstrous grappler who seems to be able to take opponents down at will, and this looks like a bad match for ‘The Hulk’.

I don’t think it’ll go anywhere near as badly as the first fight did for him – how could it? – but I don’t see him having a lot of success. I don’t think he can out-grapple Ankalaev and by what we’ve now seen, I’m not sure he can outstrike him either. That all adds up to another UFC victory for the dangerous Dagestani.

The Pick: Ankalaev via unanimous decision

#6 UFC 252 Prelims: ESPN Card

Longtime UFC veteran Jim Miller headlines the card's ESPN prelims

Four of this show’s prelim fights will be shown on ESPN. At the top of the portion is a battle between Lightweight veterans Jim Miller and Vinc Pichel. With a combined age of 73, quite how long these two men have left in the UFC is anyone’s guess.

Of the two, Miller is naturally more shopworn. Debuting in the UFC back in 2008, he’s had 35 fights in the promotion, and has seen mixed results as of late. His most recent fight though saw a big return to form – he armbarred prospect Roosevelt Roberts in the first round.

The question here for him is how he deals with Pichel’s physical strength. Not the greatest fighter in terms of skills, the bullying style of ‘From Hell’ has allowed him plenty of UFC success. In fact, powerful grapplers Gregor Gillespie and Rustam Khabilov are the only men to beat him during his seven-fight run in the promotion.

Skill-for-skill this ought to be a winnable fight for Miller, particularly as Pichel hasn’t fought in well over a year. However, his physical deterioration makes me suspect that ‘From Hell’ will be able to grind out a surprising decision win.

At Strawweight, Ashley Yoder takes on Livinha Souza. A former Invicta champion, Souza hasn’t quite hit the ground running in the UFC as she’d hoped. In fact, she hasn’t fought in over a year following an upset loss to Brianna Van Buren.

Yoder, meanwhile, has far less experience, and while she’s a good athlete, she’s traditionally struggled with the higher-level fighters in this division. I feel like she could win this one if she takes the fight to Souza, but the more likely outcome is ‘The Brazilian Gangster’ winning via either decision or submission.

A late-notice Heavyweight bout sees debutants Chris Daukaus and Parker Porter square off. As with any fight between UFC debutants – particularly at Heavyweight – this one is near impossible to pick. Porter has been around for ages – he even has a loss to a pre-UFC Jon Jones on his record. Daukaus, meanwhile, is the brother of current UFC Middleweight Kyle Daukaus and he also moonlights as a Philadelphia cop.

Footage on Daukaus is sparse, but he appears to be a heavy hitter – even if he’s not in the best shape. However, I’m leaning towards Porter here. He’s the more experienced fighter, having been in Bellator and even faced Gabriel Gonzaga a few years ago. I’ll take Porter via TKO.

Finally, in another Strawweight fight, veteran Felice Herrig returns from a long time on the shelf to face Virna Jandiroba. This one is tricky to call. If Herrig were in her prime, I’d probably pick her easily. She’s largely underrated in all areas and her stand-up had come on leaps and bounds in recent years.

However, she’s also 35, is coming off a serious knee injury, and has been fighting for over a decade. Jandiroba, meanwhile, has lost to the best opponent she’s faced – Carla Esparza – but she’s a very skilled grappler and is clearly on her way up. If Herrig is fit and healthy, then I think she can outwork the Brazilian for a decision, but it could easily go the other way.

#7 UFC 252 Prelims: UFC Fight Pass card

Rising star Herbert Burns headlines the UFC Fight Pass portion of the show

Ever since the ESPN deal began, the UFC’s own Fight Pass streaming service hasn’t been used as much as it once was. That’s why it’s a surprise to see three fights on the platform on this show.

At the top of the portion is a Featherweight fight between Herbert Burns – brother of top Welterweight contender Gilbert – and the returning Daniel Pineda.

The circumstances around Pineda’s UFC return are a little strange given he’s coming off an NSAC suspension for a positive drug test, but he’s a solid fighter in all areas with a really nasty submission game. Will that be enough to get him past Burns? Personally I’m not so sure.

MMA Math suggests so as Pineda TKO’d Movlid Khaybulaev, who beat Burns by decision in 2017. However, Burns has looked great since making his UFC debut, showing a dangerous ground game to go along with an improving striking one. Pineda has never been the greatest with submission defense either, so I’m taking Burns by submission.

Also at Featherweight, TJ Brown takes on UFC debutant Danny Chavez. A graduate of the Contender Series, Brown is exactly what you’d expect from a fighter to enter the UFC from that show. Aggressive, tons of finishes on his ledger, but perhaps not ready for the elite level – as we saw in his loss to Jordan Griffin in February.

Footage on Perez seems remarkably sparse, to the point where I’ve only been able to track down a couple of clips. He appears to be a counter-striker, but his record is somewhat worrying. He’s been fighting since 2010, but has just 12 fights to his name and hasn’t actually been active since 2018. With all of that in mind, I’m going to take Brown via TKO here.