UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Can Jairzinho Rozenstruik take out a former UFC champ in the form of Junior Dos Santos?

Both of these big men are coming off devastating knockout losses; JDS to Curtis Blaydes, Rozenstruik to Francis Ngannou. That means that neither man is in UFC title contention right now, although a big win here would certainly push either back up the ranks.

Theoretically at least, this should be a striking battle. Sure, there are questions around Rozenstruik’s ground game, but thus far into his UFC career, only Alistair Overeem has looked to test him there. And of course, it’s hard to even recall Dos Santos shooting for a takedown at any stage.

So from a striking standpoint then, who has the advantage? They’re certainly very different strikers, that’s for sure. Dos Santos’s UFC career has essentially been built on the back of his boxing skills. He tends to fight behind his jab – he practically beat Blagoy Ivanov using his jab alone in 2018 – and also likes to dig to the body. Most of all though, he favors a powerful right hook when it comes to finishing his foes.

The Brazilian has been stopped by strikes before, with Cain Velasquez, Stipe Miocic, Ngannou, and Blaydes all finishing him by TKO. It’s worth noting though that none of the four really outstruck ‘Cigano’ per se.

Ngannou simply took advantage of a single opening – and his power is simply freakish, as Rozenstruik himself can attest to. Blaydes’ finish was set up largely by JDS being concerned about the takedown. And Miocic and Velasquez both used the clinch and dirty boxing to rough ‘Cigano’ up en route to their finishes.

Dos Santos clearly isn’t the fighter he was from 2008 to 2012, when he went unbeaten in the UFC and took out the likes of Fabricio Werdum, Velasquez and Frank Mir. He’s older, more shop-worn and doesn’t weather punishment quite so well. But against lesser strikers like Ivanov and Tai Tuivasa, he’s actually been fine.

Rozenstruik is a different challenge for him entirely. ‘Bigi Boy’ isn’t plodding by any means – for a big guy he’s deceptively quick – and he’s also a highly skilled technical kickboxer. Judging by his previous fights in the UFC, he’s more of a counter-striker, and we saw that style come up trumps in his wins over Andrei Arlovski and Allen Crowder.

His knockout of Overeem was less convincing – he was behind throughout the fight due to the veteran’s more rounded skillset – but when he had to pull something out of the bag, he did. In that instance, it was a crushing right hand that practically tore Overeem’s lip off his face.

For me then, this one comes down to a simple question: is Rozenstruik’s counter game good enough to allow him to catch JDS when he swings one of his power shots? If he’s not sharp enough – or doesn’t have a huge speed advantage over the former UFC champ – then there’s every chance he simply gets jabbed to death for a decision.

With that said, Dos Santos has looked less composed in his most recent UFC fights – the losses to Ngannou and Blaydes – and if he comes in as wildly as he did in the Ngannou fight in particular, then ‘Bigi Boy’ is definitely capable of landing a huge counter.

Given JDS’s deteriorated chin, slower nature, and Rozenstruik’s skills on the counter – and punching power – I’m leaning towards ‘Bigi Boy’ here. There’s every chance JDS outboxes him, but I’m more inclined to believe that his time has been and gone. Rozenstruik is the man on the upswing of his UFC career, and I think he takes this one by knockout.

The Pick: Rozenstruik via first-round knockout