UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa - Predictions and Picks

The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi's's Fight Island this weekend for UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa. The UFC Middleweight title is on the line in the main event, while in the co-main event, Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes are set to face off for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight title.

Outside of those top two fights, there isn't too much to the card. But to be frank, that doesn't matter – these are two of the most intriguing-sounding UFC title fights in a long time and are must-see for any MMA fan.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa.

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#1 UFC Middleweight Title: Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa

Paulo Costa's last UFC fight saw him defeat Yoel Romero in a thriller.

Throughout its history, the UFC hasn't actually seen many title fights between two undefeated fighters. The last such example was Rashad Evans'' UFC Light Heavyweight title defense against Lyoto Machida over a decade ago, a fight that ended with a new champion being crowned.

Will this fight between two undefeated combatants end in the same way? To be honest, it's's a tough fight to pick.

The reigning UFC Middleweight champion, Adesanya, has seen a rise through the ranks of the promotion like few others in the UFC's's history. ''The Last Stylebender'' only debuted in the UFC in 2018 and has since run through eight straight opponents.

Essentially, Adesanya's fighting style is probably the closest thing the UFC has seen to the great Anderson Silva when he was in his prime. Like Silva, the New Zealand-based Nigerian uses pinpoint, accurate striking to pick his opponents apart while showing incredible reflexes to avoid punishment in return.

It's not impossible to hit Adesanya, as Kelvin Gastelum showed in their fight at UFC 236. However, like Silva, he's's also got a seemingly granite jaw, and naturally, whatever his opponents throw at him tends to be answered by a nasty counter.

Strangely for a reigning UFC champion, there are still plenty of questions to be answered about Adesanya's overall game. ''The Last Stylebender'' has never really been taken down by an opponent, and only Marvin Vettori really tested him in the clinch.

However, it's unlikely that Costa will be the man to test him in those areas. ''The Eraser'' actually entered the third season of TUF: Brazil with a reputation as a grappler – he submitted his opponent in the pre-house fights. But since arriving in the UFC proper in 2018, he's's established himself as a ridiculously powerful striker.

One of the most terrifying physical specimens in the UFC, Costa is probably the closest thing the promotion has right now to 2010-era Alistair Overeem. Like ''The Reem'', Costa stalks his opponent with constant forward pressure, aiming power punches at the head and the body while looking to mash his opponent in the clinch with knees and elbows.

Where ''The Eraser'' differs to ''Ubereem'' is that – judging by his fights with Uriah Hall and Yoel Romero at least – his chin is pretty stout. Overeem never weathered punishment all that well, but Costa took some serious shots from Romero and never really stopped pushing forward.

Sure, he tired out pretty badly in that fight. But he also threw a ludicrous amount of shots at the Cuban in an attempt to put him away, something no other opponent – including Adesanya – had done at Middleweight.

Basically then, this fight should come down to two simple questions. Can Costa walk Adesanya down and hit him harder than he's's been hit before and put him away? Or can ''The Last Stylebender'' catch the challenger with sharper counters as he attempts to push forward, putting him away or wearing him down for a decision?

It's incredibly tricky to call because obviously we've never seen either man lose a fight before, and to be honest, neither man has really faced an opponent like they're about to this weekend. Add in the fact that the two have been slinging insults at one another for about two years now, and this is an incredibly personal fight that could go either way.

The x-factor, though, could well be Costa's's grappling ability. Sure, he hasn't actually used it in the UFC, but he does have a submission win on his ledger. We saw him take his opponents down on TUF, and Adesanya may not be expecting him to attack in that way. I doubt he'll be able to submit Adesanya, but switching it up to go with ground-and-pound could definitely be a possibility.

I'd give Adesanya the advantage in the cardio department, but based on Costa's forward-pressuring style, I just don't see this one going the distance. So like Evans vs. Machida 11 years ago, I'm going with a new UFC champion being crowned in this one.

The Pick: Costa via third-round TKO

#2 UFC Light Heavyweight Title: Jan Blachowicz vs. Dominick Reyes

Can Dominick Reyes become the UFC's new Light Heavyweight kingpin?

For the first time since 2011, the UFC Light Heavyweight title will be on the line in a fight that doesn't have the shadow of Jon Jones hanging over it. Sure, Daniel Cormier's title reign from 2015 to 2017 produced some great fights, but the specter of 'Bones' was always in the background.

Now though, Jones has voluntarily vacated his title and seems set on a move up to Heavyweight. And so for the first time in a long time, we'll see a new UFC champion crowned at 205lbs. So will it be Blachowicz or Reyes?

Reyes, of course, fought Jones back in February at UFC 247 for the title and came away on the wrong end of a semi-controversial split decision. 'The Devastator' definitely landed more shots on Jones than anyone had done since Alexander Gustafsson back in 2013. But his failure to have the champion truly hurt – as well as the fact that he slowed down in the later rounds – largely cost him.

Overall though, he's a genuinely fantastic fighter. Standing at 6'4" and possessing a 77" reach, Reyes is a high-level athlete who moves surprisingly quickly for a big man. He's shown finishing ability both on the feet and on the ground, but perhaps his most impressive showing came in 2019 against Volkan Oezdemir.

The former UFC title challenger pushed Reyes harder than he'd ever been pushed. But 'The Devastator' took the Swiss fighter's best shots and outworked him both standing and in the clinch to edge out a decision. It was a hard-hitting fight, and the first time that we'd seen Reyes tested, and he came through with flying colors.

At 26-8, Blachowicz has far more experience than his foe here. Debuting in the UFC back in 2014, it certainly didn't look like we'd see 'The Prince of Cieszyn' in a title fight in his early days.

The Polish fighter was clearly a tremendous striker, as his wins over Ilir Latifi and Igor Pokrajac showed. However, he was also hittable, susceptible to being outworked in the clinch. And his takedown defense was negligible to the point where Alexander Gustafsson, Corey Anderson, and Patrick Cummins comfortably blanketed him for a decision.

However, around late 2017, something changed for Blachowicz. Despite being 34 at the time, he suddenly developed in leaps and bounds in all areas of his game. His wrestling improved markedly, and he gained a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu – even submitting Devin Clark and Nikita Krylov in UFC bouts.

And while his striking was always good, he also added a ramrod jab to his game – something he used to great effect in his 2018 win over Jimi Manuwa, who had beaten him back in his second UFC fight in 2015.

The Polish fighter was close to a UFC title shot back in 2019 after winning five in a row, but a knockout loss to Thiago Santos set him back. Since then, though, he's beaten Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo Souza, and Anderson in a rematch to set him up for this fight here.

So can 'The Prince of Cieszyn' win? Despite his improvements, I'm not convinced. Firstly, while the wins over Anderson and Rockhold were impressive, the fight he had with Souza was less so. It was a slow-paced, low output affair that mainly took place in the clinch, and as it's the only time Blachowicz has gone five rounds, it's hard not to worry.

To add to that, the Polish fighter is simply not the fastest fighter at 205lbs, something that largely led to his downfall against Santos. Blachowicz was doing fine in that fight until he simply walked into a quicker, heavier counter from 'Marreta' that knocked him silly.

Blachowicz will surprisingly hold a 1" reach advantage in this fight, something he'll look to use to his benefit – probably by unleashing that ramrod jab. However, he doesn't possess the range that Reyes does, nor does he have the kicking game of 'The Devastator.'

With that all in mind – as well as the fact that Blachowicz has been knocked out before – I'm going with Reyes here. I suspect that Blachowicz will push him hard, but I can see his kicking game and speed advantage proving too much. In my mind, 'The Devastator' walks out on Saturday night as the new UFC Light-Heavyweight champ.

The Pick: Reyes via second-round TKO

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval

Brandon Royval upset Timothy Elliott in his UFC debut in May.

It’s quite rare to see the UFC allow a Flyweight fight a showcase on a major pay-per-view like this, so this one could be a breath of fresh air. However, with new UFC champ Deiveson Figueiredo set for a big title defense against Cody Garbrandt, we could be seeing the beginning of a new era at 125lbs.

Royval is very much a new fighter to the UFC. The former LFA Flyweight champ, ‘Raw Dawg’, made his UFC debut in May, choking out longtime veteran Timothy Elliott in a bit of an upset. Royval took the fight on late notice, but somehow survived the insane pace that Elliott put on in the first round to take over in the second.

Royval is clearly an excellent grappler – he’s got seven submission wins to his name – but will that be enough to get him past Kara-France, who has a tremendous ground game in his own right? It’s hard to say.

New Zealand’s Kara-France lives up to his ‘Don’t Blink’ nickname, as despite not finishing a fight since he joined the UFC in 2018, he’s put on some truly exciting wars inside the Octagon. He’s also 4-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming at the hands of high-level contender Brandon Moreno at UFC 245 last December.

Kara-France is strong in all areas but what really makes him excel is the pace he tends to put on. Simply put, he never stops moving, and his fights tend to be a blur of action, even for a 125lber. He’s been more than happy to strike and grapple with all of his opponents, and even in the Moreno fight, he was never truly out of the running.

The issue here for Kara-France is that he’s faced with a real specialist for the first time in his UFC career. The previous opponents he’s beaten have all been largely like him – solid fighters but jacks-of-all-trades, fighters willing to push a hard pace but lacking in finishing skills.

‘Raw Dawg,’ on the other hand, is absolutely a dangerous finisher on the ground. And if Kara-France’s pace can’t wilt him – and given Elliott’s couldn’t and that was a late notice fight, there’s no reason to suspect it will – then ‘Don’t Blink’ will probably be in trouble.

Finishing a fighter the caliber of Kara-France would definitely be a major feather in the cap of Royval. But then he already finished an incredibly tricky opponent in Elliott and looked great in doing so. I’m taking ‘Raw Dawg’ to submit Kara-France here, picking up his second UFC victory.

The Pick: Royval via second-round submission

#4 UFC Bantamweight Division: Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks

Ketlen Vieira has outgrappled strong fighters like Cat Zingano during her UFC career.

This fight would initially have seen Brazil’s Vieira taking on Marion Reneau. But with ‘The Belizean Bruiser’ out with an injury, Eubanks – who only fought in the UFC a couple of weeks ago, beating Julia Avila via decision – has stepped in on very late notice.

It’s the kind of risky fight that few others would’ve taken, particularly this close to a previous bout. If anything, it’s reminiscent of Chris Leben taking two back-to-back UFC fights back in 2010. ‘The Crippler’ won those two, but can Eubanks do the same? I’m not so sure.

‘Sarj’ won her fight with Avila largely due to her tremendous grappling and top game in particular, even if she was clearly willing to trade wild strikes with ‘The Raging Panda.’ A legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with some success in the world championships, Eubanks is highly skilled on the ground.

However, is she going to be able to implement that ground game against Vieira? ‘Fenomeno’ is also a ground specialist – a fellow black belt in both BJJ and judo. And while she doesn’t have the kind of credentials that Eubanks does, she has been able to firmly out-grapple some serious opponents in the UFC.

Cat Zingano, Sara McMann, and Ashlee Evans-Smith – all large Bantamweights with excellent grappling – fell to the Brazilian. And while Irene Aldana was able to hand Vieira her first UFC loss last year, she did it by stopping the takedown and out-striking her standing.

Could Eubanks repeat that gameplan? It’s a possibility. She’s got a couple of knockouts on her record and was more than willing to trade with Avila. But she’s also not the most natural kickboxer and certainly doesn’t possess the slick boxing that Aldana does.

The biggest issue for her in this fight is likely to be size. It’s telling that all of Eubanks’ three UFC losses – to Katlyn Chookagian, Aspen Ladd, and Bethe Correia – came against much larger opponents. Correia isn’t even the best athlete and yet she was able to stop the takedown and outpoint ‘Sarj’ standing.

Vieira isn’t the most natural striker either, but she’s going to be far bigger than Eubanks and definitely has the ability to put her on her back – something that ‘Sarj’ just isn’t used to. Given that ‘Fenomeno’ took down McMann – an Olympic wrestler – it’s hard to imagine her struggling to take Eubanks off her feet.

Eubanks has the skill to keep this a competitive fight. But I suspect that Vieira will just have a little too much for her to handle on the ground, and out-grapple her for a unanimous decision.

The Pick: Vieira via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Featherweight Division: Hakeem Dawodu vs. Zubaira Tukhugov

Can Hakeem Dawodu get past fellow striker Zubaira Tukhugov this weekend?

To say that this fight sounds like fireworks on paper would be an understatement. Both men are amongst the most explosive and entertaining strikers in the UFC’s Featherweight division, and a big win for either man would propel them into the title picture.

Of the two, Tukhugov has been around for the longest. A teammate of UFC Lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov, ‘The Warrior,’ debuted back in 2014 with a win over Douglas Silva de Andrade. He’s since gone 3-1-1, with the only loss coming via split decision at the hands of the highly-rated Renato Moicano.

Like any Dagestan-based fighter, Tukhugov has an excellent wrestling and grappling game, but it’s with his striking that he truly excels. A heavy hitter with a tremendous grasp of range and distance, ‘The Warrior’ tends to unleash combinations at his foe with venom. He will look to grapple at times, but only when he’s either tired or in trouble standing.

So how does he match with Dawodu? Like Tukhugov, the Canadian is primarily a striker with a number of Muay Thai titles to his name. ‘Mean Hakeem’ didn’t start off his UFC career that well, dropping his debut to Danny Henry in under a minute, but since then, he’s been perfect.

Dawodu hasn’t always been a tremendous finisher – he’s only got one TKO to his name in the UFC – but he’s picked apart all of his opponents on the feet. His closest fight was his most recent against Julio Arce, but even then, it was clear that Dawodu was the better striker.

The key to this fight, I feel, will be Dawodu’s cardio. He hasn’t really gotten tired in any of his UFC outings thus far and even knocked out Yoshinori Horie in the third round of their fight with a vicious head kick. Tukhugov, on the other hand, tired out badly in his fight with Lerone Murphy and ended up missing out on a victory because of it despite picking up a 10-8 first round.

Dawodu will definitely need to be careful; however, as we saw in his fight with Danny Henry that his chin perhaps isn’t the best. He was dropped by the Scottish fighter, and the knockdown led directly to his guillotine choke loss. However, he took plenty of shots from Arce and seemed okay, so perhaps that Henry loss was a red herring.

Overall, I expect a close striking battle here, but I think the cardio advantage will allow Dawodu to outwork his Dagestani foe down the stretch for a decision, giving him his fifth UFC win in a row.

The Pick: Dawodu via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN2 and ESPN+ card

Exciting striker Brad Riddell headlines this weekend's UFC prelims.

UFC 253 will feature six preliminary bouts, all of which will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service as well as the ESPN2 network.

At the top of that portion sits a Lightweight clash between New Zealand's Brad Riddell and experienced Brazilian Alex Da Silva. A training partner of UFC Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya, Riddell looked fantastic in his most recent bout, a striking battle with Magomed Mustafaev. 'Quake' is clearly a skilled kickboxer, and he appears to be getting better too.

Da Silva is more well-rounded, with plenty of submission wins to his name too. However, he's never beaten anyone close to the level of Mustafaev. With that in mind, and the fact that 'Leko' is probably going to be willing to trade with Riddell, I'm going with 'Quake' to edge out a decision in an exciting bout.

In the Welterweight division, battle-hardened veteran Diego Sanchez faces Jake Matthews. It's hard not to worry for Sanchez here, to be honest. His showing against Michel Pereira was bizarre, to say the least, he's training with the unheralded Joshua Fabia. He's also taken an insane amount of punishment over the years, with this marking his 32nd fight in the UFC.

Australia's Matthews has never quite fulfilled the potential he showed a few years ago. But he's still an excellent fighter in all areas who is also tough as nails and has good cardio. If he attempts to grapple with Sanchez, he might be in trouble, but it's hard not to see him catching 'The Nightmare' with something big and taking him out. Matthews via TKO is my pick.

At Featherweight, New Zealand's Shane Young faces L'udovit Klein, who is taking the fight on short notice. Slovakia's Klein has plenty of experience at 16-2, but footage on him seems rather sparse. Young, meanwhile, has looked solid since dropping his UFC debut to Alexander Volkanovski, and has beaten his two most recent opponents.

Given Klein's unheralded nature and late notice, I'm going with Young via decision here.

At Light Heavyweight, William Knight makes his UFC debut against Aleksa Camur. A training partner of UFC Heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic, Camur looked excellent in his UFC debut earlier this year, clearly outpointing Justin Ledet for a decision.

Knight, meanwhile, came into the UFC by destroying his opponent on Dana White's Contender Series just a couple of weeks ago. This should be an interesting – and potentially – wild fight as both men hit extremely hard and throw everything they've got at their opponent. As Camur is slightly more proven, though, I'm going with him via TKO.

At Heavyweight, Juan Espino takes on Jeff Hughes. A heavy-handed brawler, Hughes has knockout power. But from what I've seen, his grappling game is lacking somewhat. Espino hasn't fought since winning TUF 28 in 2018, but the Spaniard is still excellent in the clinch, has the ability to drag his opponents down, and tends to finish them from there. The pick, then, is Espino via submission.

Finally, Danilo Marques makes his UFC debut at Light Heavyweight against Khadis Ibragimov. This could honestly go either way. Marques is an excellent grappler but isn't the best athlete and has been knocked out before, while Ibragimov hits extremely hard but has a tendency to gas out and is vulnerable on the ground. Given Ibragimov's tendency to get tired, as long as Marques can avoid the big shot, this should be his fight to lose. I'll take him by submission late on.