UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov - Predictions and Picks

If last weekend’s UFC card was never going to capture anyone’s imagination, this week’s is a massive improvement. Is it a high-end pay-per-view level show? Not quite, but it’s definitely one of the stronger free-TV cards that the promotion has put together in some time.

The top two fights may well have major title implications in the near future, while practically every fight on the card sounds like it’s worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov.

#1 Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov

Curtis Blaydes destroyed Junior Dos Santos in his last fight

With the UFC finally clearing up the title picture at Heavyweight – Stipe Miocic will now defend his title against Daniel Cormier at UFC 252, with the winner likely defending against Francis Ngannou in late 2020 – this fight makes perfect sense.

Blaydes has only ever lost to Ngannou in his professional career. He’s 9-2 in the UFC with wins over everyone from Junior Dos Santos and Alistair Overeem to Mark Hunt and Aleksei Oleinik. Volkov meanwhile has just one loss on his UFC ledger too – that last-gasp TKO at the hands of Derrick Lewis.

Essentially, the winner of this one can probably afford to sit and wait for whoever’s the champ at the end of 2020, and hope for a title fight in early 2021.

The big question to be answered in this fight is obviously how Volkov deals with Blaydes’ incredible wrestling game. There have been more credentialed wrestlers in the UFC’s Heavyweight division – Brock Lesnar, Daniel Cormier, Cain Velasquez – but it’s actually ‘Razor’ who has the record for the most takedowns in the division’s history.

The only men to have been able to fend off his takedown? Ngannou, who knocked Blaydes out before a shot was attempted, and Dos Santos, who ended up with other issues entirely that we’ll get to in a second.

That issue is that where Blaydes’ striking lagged miles behind his wrestling when he first came into the UFC, he’s developed it now to the point where it’s a very genuine weapon for him. Dos Santos was able to stop the takedown, but in doing so it left him open to that striking, and sure enough, ‘Razor’ turned his lights out in the second round.

Volkov essentially hasn’t fought a really strong wrestler since his 2013 encounter with Vitaly Minakov in Bellator. He’s beaten strong grapplers like Fabricio Werdum and Roy Nelson since, but neither of them have takedowns like Blaydes.

Where ‘Drago’ does excel is in using his height and reach to punish his opponents from the outside. It’s how he took out Werdum, Nelson, Stefan Struve and most recently, Greg Hardy.

The Russian prefers to sit behind his jab and pick at his opponent, while his traditional karate background means he’s also dangerous with kicks – particularly the front kick to the body that he used to great effect against Hardy and against Derrick Lewis before he was stopped.

For a big man, Volkov’s footwork is also excellent. He’s difficult for more concussive strikers to corral, and his cardio is strong too, as we haven’t really seen him get tired, even in the later rounds.

Does that give him enough to pick Blaydes apart for five rounds, though? For me it doesn’t.

Firstly, I’m not sure how well his takedown defense will stand up. As a taller fighter at 6’7”, he tends to stand tall in the Octagon as well, meaning Blaydes will likely find a big target in terms of shooting underneath his punches to get to a double leg.

And secondly, if he does focus entirely on takedown defense, it leaves him wide open to a sledgehammer shot from ‘Razor’, who hits as hard as any other man in the division, save for perhaps Ngannou. And Volkov’s chin is certainly not bulletproof – he was knocked out by Lewis of course, but also found himself in big trouble in his UFC debut against Tim Johnson.

For ‘Drago’ to win this one, he might have to pull off something spectacular – like time a Donald Cerrone-esque knee to the head as Blaydes shoots in for a takedown. Unless he can do that, I just can’t see how he’ll stop the takedown, and once Blaydes has someone down, his ground-and-pound is absolutely ruthless.

The Pick: Blaydes via second round TKO

#2 Featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos

Shane Burgos is one of the world's most dangerous Featherweights

This Featherweight clash could easily have main evented a UFC Fight Night or ESPN card. Both men are well entrenched in the top ten at 145lbs and both have put on some of the more exciting fights in the division in recent memory.

Emmett burst onto the scene back in 2017. He came into the UFC largely under the radar in 2016 as a Lightweight, but dropped to 145lbs in late 2017 and then ended the year by taking a fight with highly ranked contender Ricardo Lamas on late notice. With very few people favouring him to win, ‘The Grim Reaper’ shocked everyone by turning Lamas’ lights out with a crushing left hook.

A loss in early 2018 to Jeremy Stephens then derailed his momentum – and left him on the shelf for over a year with serious facial injuries – but 2019 saw him bounce back with a pair of impressive wins over Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic.

Essentially a wrestle-boxer who favours his striking over his wrestling game, Emmett’s insane punching power is his biggest strength. He’s not the most technical striker in the division by any means – he was being pieced up by Johnson for the majority of their fight – but that huge power is ridiculous equaliser, and he carries it in both hands, too.

Burgos meanwhile is a little different. ‘The Hurricane’ is a student of Tiger Schulmann’s MMA – the same camp that produced the likes of Jimmie Rivera and Lyman Good. An aggressive striker, Burgos tends to look to walk his opponent down and throw nasty combos at them, and then counter anything they come back with.

For the native of New York, pressure is the name of the game. And he’s used that style to great effect in the UFC thus far, going 6-1 in the promotion with his only loss coming to Calvin Kattar. And in that fight, Burgos was actually winning until Kattar caught him with some heavy shots in the third round.

His biggest win? Probably Cub Swanson. A devilishly tricky striker to face off with, Burgos was still able to walk him down and land enough offense – largely by using his jab – to edge a decision.

This one is tricky to call because you can make a case for both men. On one hand, Burgos’s style seems tailor-made to simply break the cruder Emmett down over three rounds. He’s got a ramrod jab, has a 5” reach advantage over ‘The Grim Reaper’, and should be able to cut inside with combinations to pick him apart.

However, ‘The Hurricane’ doesn’t have the greatest footwork in the division and can be left open for a heavy counterpunch. And while he’s only been stopped by Kattar, Emmett has the kind of fight-changing power capable of taking anyone out in one shot. And as Burgos looks to overwhelm his opponents with volume, it only means he’ll be more open to eating that big shot.

In the end though, Burgos and his team should be well aware of Emmett’s crazy power, and so if he can be very careful – and probably fight a little more conservatively than he usually does – then he ought to be able to land enough offense to win a decision. If he gets drawn into a brawl though, this could easily be Emmett’s fight. I’m taking Burgos, but it should be tight.

The Pick: Burgos via unanimous decision

#3 Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau

Raquel Pennington was impressive in her 2019 win over Irene Aldana

It’s hard to say where these two Bantamweights are actually headed at this point. In all likelihood, they’re just looking to stay afloat in what is still one of the UFC’s thinner divisions. Neither has been on the best run as of late – Reneau hasn’t won a fight since February 2018, while Pennington is 1-3 in her last 4 – but despite that they’re still amongst the better female 135lbers in the world.

Reneau is an interesting case indeed. ‘The Belizean Bruiser’ is actually 42 years old and didn’t start fighting professionally until 2010. She emerged into the UFC in 2015 and largely used her athletic ability to move up the ranks, but her general lack of experience – she’s still only got 15 professional fights to her name – has often been her downfall.

Both of her last two losses – to Cat Zingano and Yana Kunitskaya – came largely because both veterans were able to stifle her explosive offense and outwork her for three rounds. So can Pennington carry out that kind of gameplan?

In all likelihood the answer is yes. ‘Rocky’ isn’t the most natural athlete in the promotion, but she’s ultra-tough, has well-rounded skills and is more than capable of grinding an opponent down. Since emerging into the UFC following a run on TUF, she’s only had four real losses, if you ignore a contentious decision loss to Jessica Andrade in 2014.

The big takeaway? All four of her losses – two to Holly Holm, one to Germaine de Randamie and one to Amanda Nunes – came in fights where she was outgunned by a far better technical striker. She had some limited success against Holm when she was able to draw a brawl, but there’s honestly no shame in being outpointed by any of them.

Outside of that though, she’s been perfect – and even managed to grind out the fast-rising Irene Aldana as recently as last July by using her clinch work, takedowns and strong defense – as well as her own heavy punches.

Can Reneau catch ‘Rocky’ in a nasty submission, or even manage to take her out with strikes? The first one is possible, but the second one feels less so given Pennington’s toughness. Throw in the fact that Pennington is adept at both working an opponent over from the clinch and also at getting them on the ground to land strikes, and I think it’s her fight to lose.

The Pick: Pennington via unanimous decision

#4 Welterweight: Lyman Good vs. Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad has been flying under the radar at 170lbs

These days, the UFC seems to be chock-full of fighters who aren’t necessarily in title contention or highly popular with the fans, but are still flying under the radar and putting together strong records. Both Good and Muhammad fall into this category.

A former Bellator champion – albeit way back in 2010 – Good arrived in the UFC in 2015. ‘The Cyborg’ has gone 3-2 since then, with a couple of lengthy absences, one enforced by USADA, preventing him from gaining any real momentum.

Interestingly, the USADA ban – which came when Good tested positive for anabolic steroids apparently contained in a contaminated supplement – forced him out of a fight at UFC 205 with none other than Muhammad.

Muhammad – who sports the brilliant nickname of ‘Remember the Name’ – has much more UFC experience than his opponent here. He’s gone 7-3 since debuting in 2016, and his more recent losses came to Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal, a pair of fighters who have since broken into title contention.

The biggest knock on Muhammad is probably his lack of finishing ability. A well-rounded fighter who can both wrestle well and strike decently, ‘Remember the Name’ has only picked up two finishes in his UFC career, and only 5 overall in his 16 career wins.

Good on the other hand is a much more dangerous fighter when it comes to finishing opponents, but whether he can manage to catch Muhammad – who has an iron jaw – with any concussive blows is another thing entirely.

The issue I see for Good in this fight comes down to the fact that despite having a slight reach advantage, he doesn’t necessarily fight like a longer striker. That means he’ll have to get inside boxing range to do his damage, and that risks him being grabbed by Muhammad.

And if Muhammad can get the former Bellator champ to the ground, it probably doesn’t bode well. All of Good’s losses – aside from a contentious decision loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos – have come when fighters have been able to ground him.

Sure, Muhammad is no Demian Maia – who choked out Good in February 2019 – but he’s a very capable grappler who’s heavy from the top and knows how to keep a foe down and beat them up.

Does Good have the striking power to knock Muhammad out? Sure, but then so did Curtis Millender, Tim Means and Randy Brown, and they were all outworked and outpointed by him. I’m not convinced ‘The Cyborg’ has good enough takedown defense to stop Muhammad from getting hold of him, and so I’m going with a decision win for ‘Remember the Name’.

The Pick: Muhammad via unanimous decision

#5 Catchweight: Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Veteran Jim Miller will have his hands full this weekend with prospect Roosevelt Roberts

These two fighters usually compete at Lightweight, but this fight will instead take place at a 160lbs Catchweight, probably because Roberts only fought three weeks ago. It’s an exciting clash on paper between a high-level prospect on the rise and a real battle-hardened veteran, but who will take the win?

It’s hard to believe Miller is only 36 years old, to be frank. He’s been fighting in the UFC since 2008 and this will be his 35th appearance in the Octagon, making him one of the most experienced fighters of all time. It’s unsurprising that he’s past his prime, but the question is how far gone is he?

If you rewind a handful of years, then the answer seemed to be very far indeed. After bouncing back from lyme disease, Miller put three wins in a row together to get himself back on track in 2016. This was followed, however, by four straight losses. Since the start of 2017 in fact, Miller is 3-6.

The New Jersey native is still a dangerous and crafty grappler – as evidenced by his 2019 submissions of Jason Gonzalez and Clay Guida – but age has taken away the physicality and cardio advantages he once had over most opponents. And while he’s still tough, his durability has begun to wane too, although he’s only ever been stopped by strikes twice.

The question then is whether Roberts has the skills and ability to capitalise on Miller’s wane to pick up what would be the biggest win of his career.

He’s certainly got the physicality. ‘The Predator’ is a large 155lber, and at 6’1” he’ll enjoy a notable height and reach advantage over Miller. What’s more, Roberts is learning more and more how to use that length. He picked apart Thomas Gifford in their fight and also used his striking to beat up Brok Weaver en route to a submission win just three weeks ago.

On the ground meanwhile, Roberts isn’t a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt like Miller, but his long arms mean he’s a massive submission threat, particularly with chokes such as guillotine variants and the D’Arce.

2019 did see him lose a decision against a veteran in Vinc Pichel, but it’s worth noting that Pichel’s success in the UFC has always hinged on his immense physical strength, something Miller can no longer call upon.

To win this fight then, Miller’s going to have to force Roberts into a scramble and hope he can catch him with a submission during it. It’s just not likely that he’s going to be able to strike with ‘The Predator’ without getting hurt, and nor is he likely to be able to take the younger man down and hold him there.

The issue for the veteran is that scrambles sap cardio more than anything else in MMA, and Miller’s gas tank has looked suspect in his recent losses to Francisco Trinaldo and Scott Holtzman. Add in the fact that Roberts probably knows that scrambling with Miller could be a mistake, and I think this is a really tough match for the New Jersey native.

Can Roberts finish Miller? It’d be a huge feather in his cap if he can, particularly if he can tap the veteran out, but I actually think he’ll finish him with a TKO from top position after muscling him down. Given the fight is taking place at 160lbs, ‘The Predator’ will likely be bigger and stronger than ever, and I think that’ll play massively to his advantage.

The Pick: Roberts via second round TKO

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

Veteran Clay Guida headlines this weekend's prelims against Bobby Green

According to the latest updates, all seven of Saturday’s prelim fights will be shown on ESPN. Topping the bill is a clash of Lightweight veterans, as Clay Guida faces off with Bobby Green. Given that he’s been in the UFC since 2007, it’s natural to question quite how much Guida has left in the tank, but ‘The Carpenter’ hasn’t fought in nearly a year which should refresh him.

The big question here is how Guida’s hyper-active style will clash with the minimalist tactics of Green, who seems to be able to lull any opponent into a strange point-fighting match, as evidenced with the amount of tight decisions to his name.

The x-factor here could be the fact that Green is very much a counter-fighter as well as being an underrated wrestler. If he can stop Guida’s takedown and land some strong counterpunches on him, then he can definitely win – it just depends on how highly the judges reward Guida’s likely more active style. Expect a split decision here – I’m going with Green.

At Strawweight, prospect Brianna Van Buren takes her biggest step up to date when she faces off with the far more experienced Tecia Torres. Van Buren’s striking looked excellent in her last fight – a win over Livinha Souza – but Torres is an equally excellent striker with some tremendous combinations, and she’s also a highly underrated grappler.

With more fights in the UFC alone than Van Buren’s had in her entire career, ‘The Tiny Tornado’ is likely a step too far for the prospect, and so I’ll take Torres to win a decision.

In a Middleweight clash, Canadian brawler Marc-Andre Barriault faces off with Oskar Piechota. Barriault is likely on his last life with the UFC; ‘Power-Bar’ has gone 0-3 thus far, and although he’s had his moments, a loss to Jun Yong Park doesn’t really bode well for his future.

To win this one he’ll need to rough Poland’s Piechota up as there’s no way he can compete with him from a technical standpoint. ‘Imadlo’ is one of Europe’s best grapplers, and while he’s lost his last three too, only his most recent fight – a KO loss to Punahele Soriano – was really alarming.

If Piechota chooses to brawl with Barriault then he’s likely in trouble, but if he can either land a takedown, or pick at him from the outside, then I’d give him a strong chance of winning. Piechota by decision is my pick.

After picking up a win just a month ago, Cortney Casey returns at Flyweight to take on Gillian Robertson. Robertson actually looked good in her initial UFC run, going 4-1 in her first 5 before being destroyed by Maycee Barber last October in a loss that showed her lack of pure athletic ability.

Casey’s wrestling or lack thereof has cost her in the past, but she doesn’t seem as depleted at 125bls and her grappling is clearly developing, as she showed in her armbar win last month. With that in mind, I feel like Casey is the better athlete, on a better run, and she’ll pick up another win by tapout here.

In a fight that sounds like it should be exciting, Frank Camacho goes to war with Matt Frevola in the Lightweight division. Camacho’s UFC career has been an up-and-down one, but you can’t fault him for sheer aggression; ‘The Crank’ has won Fight of the Night on 3 occasions thus far.

Frevola may be a little more skilled in all areas though, particularly on the ground, and given the gaps we’ve seen in Camacho’s grappling defence, I’m taking ‘The Steamrolla’ to win by submission.

In what could be a fight with title implications, veterans Roxanne Modafferi and Lauren Murphy face off at Flyweight. At 37, Modafferi should probably be slowing down, but in reality she’s shown the best form of her career as of late after really working on her strength and athleticism – an area that’s let her down greatly in the past.

Murphy – a tough grinder – is coming off two straight wins, but it’ll be interesting to see how she deals with the new and improved ‘Happy Warrior’. Given that Murphy has been outgrappled in the past, I’m going to take Modafferi by decision here.

Finally, in a late-notice Lightweight showdown, Austin Hubbard faces newcomer Max Rohskopf. Hubbard hasn’t shown a lot more than raw skills and extreme toughness in his UFC career thus far, but to be fair, ‘Thud’ was also faced with a pair of grappling monsters in Davi Ramos and Mark Madsen in two of his three fights.

At 5-0, Rohskopf has far less experience – but this again looks like a horrible fight for Hubbard. The newcomer has submitted all 5 of his opponents, trains under world-class grappler Robert Drysdale, and was a NCAA Division I All-American wrestler at the University of North Carolina. Hubbard might last the distance again, but I’m confident in taking the prospect Rohskopf by decision here.