UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Bantamweight Division: Germaine de Randamie vs. Julianna Pena

Julianna Pena is a highly dangerous grappler who has wins over UFC veterans like Cat Zingano.

There are plenty of parallels between this fight and the main event. Like Holm, de Randamie is a former UFC champion – albeit at Featherweight – and like Holm, she was beaten in a title fight by Amanda Nunes in 2019.

‘The Iron Lady’ at least went the distance with Nunes, but when the fight was over, there was absolutely no question who’d won. De Randamie was simply dominated on the ground by ‘The Lioness’ despite a couple of decent moments for her.

The fact that she was whitewashed on the ground should be a concern for her in this fight. Pena is a ground specialist, and outside of the great Valentina Shevchenko – who surprised her with an armbar in their 2017 clash – she’s dominated all of her UFC opponents on the mat.

Even solid grapplers in their own right like Nicco Montano and Cat Zingano were unable to do anything with ‘The Venezuelan Vixen’ on the ground. Basically, Pena – the winner of the 18th season of The Ultimate Fighter - is large and powerful, has strong takedowns, and from the top, she’s extremely dominant.

This fight, then, is a traditional clash of styles. While Pena’s ground game is excellent, her striking is rudimentary at best, and she’s up against a genuinely world-class kickboxer here in De Randamie. ‘The Iron Lady’ has a ludicrous kickboxing record – 46-0 – and not only is she a pinpoint striker, but she also hits extremely hard.

She knocked out Aspen Ladd in 2019, for instance, and also badly hurt Holly Holm in their fight on numerous occasions. As previously mentioned, her ground game isn’t great, but she is tricky to take down. That’s largely because she’s very dangerous with strikes inside the clinch, as Raquel Pennington found out in 2018.

Overall, this is a tricky one to pick. De Randamie hasn’t beaten many fighters with Pena’s style in the UFC, and although she TKO’d Ladd, Ladd was very depleted due to a terrible weight cut. Pena, on the other hand, has fought strikers before in the UFC. And while none have been as decorated as de Randamie, she’s tended to win.

I’d say this could go either way, but I’m banking on Pena getting an early takedown and dominating ‘The Iron Lady’ on the ground en route to a TKO in the first or second round.

The Pick: Pena via second-round TKO