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#4 UFC Middleweight Division: Tom Breese vs. Roman Kopylov

Despite some struggles in the UFC, Tom Breese is a high-level prospect.

Sometimes, high-level prospects don’t always pan out in the UFC. Sometimes it simply takes them a little longer to get into their groove. Right now, Breese could go either way in that sense, and that’s why this fight is pretty intriguing.

A native of Birmingham, England, Breese came into the UFC as an undefeated prospect back in 2015. He destroyed his first two UFC opponents – Luiz Dutra and Cathal Pendred – with strikes, and then edged out Keita Nakamura via decision before coming up slightly short against Sean Strickland.

Since then, it’s been a frustrating career for the Englishman. Injuries have restricted him to just two fights since 2016 – a TKO of Dan Kelly and a TKO loss at the hands of Brendan Allen. There’s no shame in a loss to Allen – a top prospect in his own right – but there’s no denying that Breese’s injury history is worrying.

Overall, he’s withdrawn from four fights in the UFC, one of which came due to a panic attack suffered in the build-up to the clash.

So what does he offer? Well, he’s a big guy, even at 185lbs. Under coach Firas Zahabi, he’s developed a cerebral, patient style that usually sees him set up his strikes with a heavy, consistent jab while also looking to take his opponents down to unleash a heavy top game.

Thankfully for the Englishman, this fight looks like a relatively straightforward one for him. Kopylov debuted in the UFC back in November 2019 with a reputation as a knockout artist. The native of Russia was bringing in an 8-0 record, with seven wins coming by KO or TKO.

However, on the big stage against Karl Roberson, he simply didn’t look up to the task. He tried hard, but Roberson was always a step ahead of him on the feet, and when Kopylov got wild late on, he was opened up for a takedown. From there, Roberson – hardly a notable grappler – was able to choke him out.

This is a good test for Breese to see exactly where he’s at after that loss to Allen. If he’s at his best, then I think he wins this comfortably, probably by using his jab to pick Kopylov apart before taking him down for a finish. If he’s gunshy, though, he could find himself in trouble.

At 28 years old, though, Breese should be reaching his athletic peak, and this should give him the chance to get back into the winner’s circle. I’m taking him by second-round submission.

The Pick: Breese via second-round submission