UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige - Predictions and Picks

This weekend sees the UFC make its long-awaited debut on ‘Fight Island’ – otherwise known as Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. But just four days after UFC 251, the promotion is putting another show on in the same location.

UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige takes place next Wednesday, and naturally, the card isn’t anywhere near as strong as the one this weekend. It’s also seen a number of COVID-19 related changes – including the scrapping of its co-main event, Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz.

There are still some fun fights on tap though, making it worth a look.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige.

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#1 UFC Featherweight Division: Calvin Kattar vs. Dan Ige

Calvin Kattar is one of the UFC's best boxers

The winner of this clash will definitely move up the UFC Featherweight ladder, as Kattar is currently ranked at #6, and Ige at #10. Will they move into title contention, though? It’s hard to say given the division is full of talent above them, names like Zabit Magomedsharipov, Yair Rodriguez, Brian Ortega, and the Korean Zombie.

Of the two, Kattar is more likely to force his way into the UFC title picture. His only recent loss came to Magomedsharipov in a very close fight that may have gone the other way had it been over five rounds. His most recent win came in May, a violent knockout of Jeremy Stephens at UFC 249 after a wildly exciting firefight.

Kattar’s main strength comes from his boxing skill. His hands are remarkably quick, he chains clean combinations together and loves to go to the body as well as the head, and he’s willing to sit behind a jab at times.

More notably, as his nickname – ‘The Boston Finisher’ – would suggest, he’s absolutely ruthless when he has an opponent hurt. Close fights with Stephens and Shane Burgos ended literally seconds after Kattar hurt the two men. And he ended tough veteran Ricardo Lamas in a rush with less than a minute remaining in the opening round.

Does he have any weaknesses? Sure. He doesn’t tend to start too quickly, and that can allow an opponent to pull ahead of him on the scorecards. While his toughness has been enough to keep him in his fights with Burgos, Stephens, and Zabit, the slow start definitely cost him the latter fight. Over five rounds though, that might be nullified.

It’s also been notable that Kattar has somewhat of a weakness when it comes to defending leg kicks. Again, it’s not like he’s been stopped by them or anything, but Stephens and Zabit both had success using them against him. And his 2018 loss to Renato Moicano at UFC 223 came almost purely because of them.

In terms of grappling, we haven’t seen too much of him on the ground, but equally, that’s unlikely to be a factor in this fight given Ige’s penchant for striking.

Ige is a bit trickier to get a true hold on. ‘Dynamite’ was beaten by Julio Arce in his 2018 UFC debut. Since then, he’s gone 6-0, but only really came to the forefront earlier in 2020 when he out-pointed the highly-rated Mirsad Bektic at UFC 247.

That fight saw him take the action to the Bosnian by hitting him with aggressive, fast striking combinations in the early rounds. It’s worth noting though that the decision could easily have gone the other way due to Bektic’s domination in the grappling department.

Similar could be said for Ige's most recent win over Edson Barboza. That fight saw Ige largely beaten up in the first round by Barboza’s striking, and he found himself badly hurt in the second too. The third saw him use his swarming style to take over – particularly once he put the tired Brazilian on his back – but despite being given the win, most observers scored the fight for Barboza.

For me, that doesn’t bode too well for this fight with Kattar. Ige’s tough, he’s willing to get into a brawl to land his punches, and his cardio is excellent. However, he’s not as technical as Kattar, I don’t think he hits as hard, and equally, Kattar has the chin to take any punishment that comes back at him.

This should be an exciting fight due to the styles of both men. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ige attempt to blitz Kattar early on and try to capitalize on his penchant for a slow start. But overall, I don’t think he has the power to take him out, and down the stretch, Kattar will begin to take over. Ige has never been finished, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Kattar break that stretch here.

The Pick: Kattar via fourth-round TKO

#2 UFC Featherweight Division: Jimmie Rivera vs. Cody Stamann

Jimmie Rivera has beaten the likes of John Dodson during his UFC tenure

With the loss of Edgar vs. Munhoz, it’s expected that this clash of the top ten UFC Bantamweights will serve as the co-main event. Intriguingly, it’s been reported that the fight will take place at 145lbs. Does this mean both men are moving up for good? It’s doubtful and is probably more telling of the relatively late notice for the fight.

Nor should it really matter. Both men have competed at 145lbs before, and with a decent level of success, too.

On paper at least, this seems like a classic striker vs. grappler match. Rivera is a seasoned kickboxer fighting out of the Tiger Schulmann camp, and he’s well-versed in traditional martial arts too, making him somewhat of an unorthodox striker.

Stamann, on the other hand, is an excellent wrestler who’s more than capable of grounding a foe and beating them up. The one knock on both men? Probably finishing ability. Rivera is 6-3 in the UFC, Stamann 5-1-1, but the only finish between them came from Rivera back in 2015.

This is a pretty tough one to call, actually. Sure, Rivera hasn’t fought since June 2019 and has lost his previous two fights, but they were against Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling, arguably the best two 135lbers in the UFC right now.

‘El Terror’ actually did really well against Yan at UFC 238, largely out-striking him for periods of their fight. His downfall largely came because the Russian was the more powerful striker, but overall it wasn’t a loss to be ashamed of. His fight with Sterling at UFC on ESPN 1 might be more worrying when it comes to this fight.

That’s because ‘Funk Master’ was able to use the threat of his grappling game to force Rivera into his shell. ‘El Terror’ wasn’t really able to get his striking going and so Sterling largely outworked him in all areas of the fight.

The likelihood is that Stamann will attempt to recreate that gameplan as really, it’s the only way anyone’s really beaten Rivera thoroughly in the UFC. Sure, Marlon Moraes KO’d him in seconds, but realistically, Moraes can do that to anyone. Stamann can’t.

The issue that I see Stamann having when it comes to replicating Sterling’s gameplan is that he lacks the range of ‘Funk Master’. Sterling prefers to use his long reach and length to unleash a kicking-based striking game. Judging from Stamann’s previous UFC fights, he’s much more of a boxing-based striker.

He’s also had issues with strikers with a lot of range and movement before. His controversial draw with Song Yadong saw him take plenty of damage on the feet, while Tom Duquesnoy also landed plenty of shots on him despite succumbing to Stamann’s wrestling game.

Overall this should be a fast-paced fight, but I’m favoring Rivera. ‘El Terror’ has excellent takedown defense, a longer reach than Stamann, and has the kind of movement and kicking game that should give ‘The Spartan’ a lot of trouble.

Can he finish Stamann? It’s highly doubtful. ‘The Spartan’ is incredibly tough as we saw against Song. In fact, the only man to finish him was Sterling, and that took him essentially ripping Stamann’s knee to shreds. But I definitely think Rivera is good enough to out-point him to get back into the winning groove.

The Pick: Rivera via unanimous decision

#3 UFC Welterweight Division: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Mounir Lazzez

Abdul Razak Alhassan has not fought in the UFC since 2018

One of the most powerful punchers in the UFC’s Welterweight division, it’s been a long time since we last saw Alhassan in action. The Ghanaian looked to have a bright future when he turned Niko Price’s lights out at UFC 228 in September 2018, but since then he’s been gone.

Why? Well, just weeks after his win over Price, he was indicted on rape charges, stalling his career. Back in March though, Alhassan was found not guilty of all charges, and now ‘Judo Thunder’ is ready to return to the UFC.

That nickname is essentially a bit of an outlier. Sure, Alhassan is a known judoka, competing in the sport for 22 years according to most sources. But like fellow judoka Hector Lombard, the Ghanaian simply hasn’t bothered to use his grappling all that much in the UFC.

Every one of his 10 wins has come by knockout, with the only man capable of surviving against him thus far being Omari Akhmedov. The Russian managed to defeat him by using his grappling and his more technical striking to largely nullify Alhassan’s deadly power punching.

That’s why this fight is quite intriguing. Lazzez is largely an unknown making his UFC debut, but judging by the footage on him, he’s definitely got talent. Known as ‘The Sniper’, the native of Tunisia fights out of Dubai and holds a 9-1 record.

Like Alhassan, he’s a clear knockout artist. Of those nine wins, just one has come by decision with the others all via KO or TKO. Lazzez throws straight punches, heavy kicks, and can counter-strike beautifully, and he’s clearly got brutal power in his shots.

The issue that he has is that judging from what I’ve seen, he keeps his chin high in the air. That could be a recipe for disaster against a puncher as devastating as Alhassan. But equally, if he can land first – as Akhmedov did – then he could come out on top.

Basically someone’s going down in this fight. If it goes the distance I’d genuinely be astonished. I’m betting on Alhassan purely because he’s got more experience and has beaten far better opponents. However, to see Lazzez destroy him early wouldn’t be a surprise either. This should be a lot of fun.

The Pick: Alhassan via first-round KO

#4 UFC Featherweight Division: Chris Fishgold vs. Jared Gordon

Jared Gordon is one of the UFC's most reliable brawlers

This card seems to be chock full of kill-or-be-killed fighters, and the UK’s Fishgold is definitely amongst them. He’s 18-3-1 overall and has been the distance just five times. Of his 18 wins, 13 have come via submission – including his lone win in the UFC over Daniel Teymur.

‘Flash’ Gordon meanwhile is more of a grinding fighter, albeit one who’s more than happy to exchange bombs and go to war. His fight with Joaquim Silva for instance was a ridiculously wild brawl, although Gordon came out on the wrong end of it. And he put a real beating on Hacran Dias back in 2017 purely by being scrappy and willing to push a nasty pace.

The question here then becomes whether Gordon can turn this fight into a dirty brawl and break Fishgold down the stretch. Or whether the Brit can use his superior skills to take ‘Flash Gordon’ out early on.

Personally, I’m leaning towards Fishgold here. The main thing that makes me take him is that whether he loses or wins, Gordon always seems to find himself in trouble early. Even in the fights, he’s won in the UFC, he’s lost the first round – and he’s been finished in it on two occasions.

Against a guy as ruthless as Fishgold – who can finish by both submission or knockout – that puts him into seriously dangerous territory. Gordon will probably come out with some wild aggression in this fight, but unless he hurts Fishgold right away, he’s likely to end up in trouble thanks to the Brit’s skills in all areas.

I like the fight to hit the ground early in the first round – probably after a wild exchange – and I think Fishgold will latch onto a submission and get Gordon out of there.

The Pick: Fishgold via first-round submission

#5 The Prelims: ESPN card

Liverpool's Molly McCann headlines this show's prelims

All of the preliminary fights on Wednesday’s UFC card will likely be shown on both ESPN and the ESPN+ streaming service.

Headlining this portion of the card is a Flyweight clash between Liverpool’s Molly McCann and Brazil’s Taila Santos. This could be another exciting fight – Santos is 15-1, and while she didn’t show a lot in her UFC debut, she’s got 10 stoppages by strikes on her ledger. McCann though has much more UFC experience – she’s 3-1 – and while she’s not as dangerous a finisher, she’s unbelievably tough and scrappy. Santos might do well early on here, but I like McCann to break her down over the distance and take a decision.

At Featherweight, Ricardo Ramos faces Lerone Murphy. A highly dangerous fighter in all areas, Ramos’ only loss thus far in his UFC career has come to Said Nurmagomedov. He’s 5-1 in the UFC and his most famous win was his spinning elbow KO of Aiemann Zahabi back in 2017.

Manchester’s Murphy, meanwhile, is 8-0-1 and is coming off a somewhat impressive UFC debut - a draw with the highly-rated Zubaira Tukhugov. This should be an exciting fight, but I think Ramos’ grappling might bring him through as the fight will likely be a wash standing. Ramos by submission is my pick.

In an intriguing-sounding Flyweight battle, Tim Elliott does battle with fellow veteran Ryan Benoit. This may well be a loser-leaves-town deal as well, due to Elliott losing three in a row while Benoit last won a fight in 2017.

In his prime, I feel like Elliott’s dangerous grappling game would’ve pulled him through here, but it’s hard not to feel like he’s at the end of the road now at the age of 33. This could go either way but I think Benoit will probably outwork Elliott for a decision.

In another Flyweight fight, Diana Belbita faces Liana Jojua. Based on what I’ve seen of these two – which is honestly very little – it’s a tricky fight to call. Jojua arguably showed a little more in her UFC debut though, going three rounds with the much larger Sarah Moras. I’m leaning towards her to pick up a decision win here.

At 205lbs, Lithuania’s Modestas Bukauskas takes on Andreas Michailidis, who stepped up on late notice following the withdrawal of Vinicius Moreira. This one is tricky to pick too – both men have a lot of knockouts to their name and have impressed on the regional circuit. Expect a pretty heavy striking battle here, but I suspect Bukauskas will have enough to earn a win given the Greek fighter’s lack of preparation time.

In what should be a brawl in the Middleweight division, Welsh slugger John Phillips faces late replacement Khamzat Chimaev. Phillips clearly has a big experience advantage here. He’s 22-9 and thus has over 5 times the amount of fights that his opponent does. But he also hasn’t shown all that much aside from power punches in the UFC.

Will that be enough for him to defeat Chimaev? It’s hard to say, as the Russian fights out of a top gym – Sweden’s AllStars Training Centre, and likely wouldn’t have gotten this opportunity with no skills. It’s probably smarter to pick Phillips given the experience and late notice, but don’t be surprised to see Chimaev pull it out.

In the Light Heavyweight division, it's a battle of newcomers as Germany's Timo Feucht faces Norway's Kenneth Bergh. This looks like a pretty solid fight between two strong European prospects, as Feucht is 8-1, Bergh 7-0.

Judging on the footage of the two, it appears that Bergh is a powerful grappler who's snacked largely on overmatched, less athletic foes on the regional circuit. 'Ymir' has never gone the distance, and actually had a fight on Dana White's Contender Series in 2019. He lost that one by submission but saw the result overturned when his opponent tested positive for anabolic steroids.

Feucht looks like a well-rounded fighter himself, but judging on what I've seen, he appears to lack Bergh's power and athleticism. It's always tricky to pick a fight between two newcomers, but I'm going with Bergh via submission.

Finally, in another late-notice fight, Aaron Phillips returns to the UFC to take on Welshman Jack Shore. A slick grappler, Shore is 12-0, while Phillips has put together a run of 5 wins following his 2014 release from the UFC. I like Shore here, as he seems on the upswing of his career while Phillips didn’t quite look like he was a UFC-level fighter last time out. Shore via submission is my pick.