UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker - Predictions and Picks

#5 The Prelims: ESPN card

Luis Pena - The Violent Bob Ross - headlines this weekend's prelims

All of this weekend’s prelims will be broadcast by the UFC on ESPN. It’s also expected that one of these fights will be elevated onto the main card to replace a cancelled Bantamweight fight between Aspen Ladd and Sara McMann, but as of writing, which fight will be chosen hasn’t been confirmed.

At the top of the preliminary card – and thus unlikely to be moved to the main card – is a Lightweight clash between Luis Pena and Khama Worthy.

Better known as ‘Violent Bob Ross’, Pena had high hopes in the UFC coming off a run on TUF, but thus far he’s somewhat flattered to deceive. Aggressive to a fault, Pena will attack his opponent from all kinds of wild angles, but he’s also struggled with defense at times and has been open to being grinded down by fighters willing to drag him into a gutter-war.

Worthy only has one UFC outing to his name – an upset knockout of Devonte Smith in a fight he took on late notice. It’s worth stating that Smith and Worthy were former training partners, which may have had an effect on the outcome. ‘The Deathstar’ is a solidly rounded fighter who relies primarily on his boxing and heavy hands, but he’s got a ton of experience dating back to 2012.

I’m going with Pena here; unless he wades in with his chin up and allows Worthy to catch him with a clean shot, I think he’s the better wrestler and grappler and should be able to drag ‘The Deathstar’ down to the ground and outwork him there. Pena via late submission is my pick.

At Heavyweight, Brazil’s Philipe Lins faces Canadian Tanner Boser. A grinder by nature, Boser will probably be happy to exchange blows with the slightly smaller Lins, hoping that his chin can hold up and the Brazilian will tire out down the stretch.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. Boser is tough – he withstood three rounds of offense from Ciryl Gane at UFC Fight Night 163 – but he’s also plodding, appears to be at a speed disadvantage, and doesn’t hit overly hard for a big man. Prior to his UFC days, Lins made his name chopping down similar fighters like Jared Rosholt and Josh Copeland in the PFL promotion, and so I think he’ll do the same thing here. Lins by TKO is my pick.

In a 150lbs Catchweight fight, Kyle Nelson goes head-to-head with Sean Woodson. I like Woodson in this one; he seems to be a touch quicker than Nelson, hits extremely hard and puts his strikes together very well. Nelson is tough and has more experience, but I feel like he’s overmatched standing in this one and so I’ll take Woodson by TKO.

At Flyweight, prospect Miranda Maverick debuts against UFC veteran Mara Romero Borella, who fought just a month ago in a loss to Cortney Casey. Borella has shown flashes of potential, but just doesn’t seem quite athletic enough to succeed at the very top level of the UFC. It’s telling that neither opponent that she beat in the Octagon have a UFC win to their name.

Maverick on the other hand is just 22 years old, and while she’s only 7-2, her wins over Pearl Gonzalez and DeAnna Bennett – both tough UFC veterans – are impressive. It’d be fair to say in fact that both women would be favoured over Borella. Add in the lack of crowd – which should lessen Octagon shock – and I’m happy to go with Maverick to win a decision.

At Welterweight, UFC newcomer Ramiz Brahimaj faces Japan’s Takashi Sato. This one is tricky to pick; Sato has far more experience including a solid UFC win over veteran Ben Saunders, but Brahimaj looks athletic, dangerous and has a nasty ability to sink chokes on his opponents using his long arms. To me this is a toss-up, but I think Sato’s experience may see him through to win a decision.

In a Featherweight clash, Jordan Griffin faces Youssef Zalal. This is a battle of two tremendous nicknames – ‘The Native Psycho’ and ‘The Moroccan Devil’, and both men are coming off their first UFC wins. Both appear to be more grappling-based fighters, so expect this one to land on the mat at some point. Overall I’m favouring Griffin, as he has much more experience, has beaten better opponents, and looks like the physically stronger man too. Griffin via decision is my pick.

Finally at Strawweight, newcomers Jinh Yu Frey and Kay Hansen do battle. The former Invicta Atomweight champion, Frey has an extensive record against tricky opponents and has solid skills in all areas. Hansen is far less experienced – she’s 20 years old, 15 years younger than Frey – but has also been fighting primarily in Invicta prior to joining the UFC.

This one could come down to sheer strength and size; a natural 115lber, Hansen is bigger than Frey, who has been outwrestled in some of her previous fights. Given the age gap too, there’s every chance that Hansen will simply outmuscle Frey for a decision win, and so that’s my pick.