UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till - Predictions and Picks

This weekend sees the UFC present its fourth and final show on Abu Dhabi’s Fight Island, for the time being at least.

UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till is a monster of a show by anyone’s standards. It features a whopping 7-fight main card, the first UFC show to do so since 2015’s UFC 190.

Thankfully, the majority of the fights sound like a lot of fun, with a bunch of really big names and former champions on show.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till.

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#1 UFC Middleweight Division: Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till

Can Robert Whittaker get back to his best form against Darren Till?

Firstly, I think it’s great that the UFC have been able to put this fight together. Whittaker and Till have been sniping at one another on social media, in a fun, good-natured way, practically since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

What’s more, with Whittaker ranked at #1 and Till at #5, there’s every chance that ‘The Gorilla’ in particular could lay claim to a title shot with a win here. But can he do it?

Well, it’s safe to say that the move up to 185lbs was the right move for him. Till was basically wrecking his body in his attempts to get down to 170lbs. Standing at 6’0”, the Liverpudlian isn’t exactly built like a fireplug, and with a long, 74.5” reach, he’s far bigger than a lot of Middleweights.

His debut at 185lbs last November at UFC 244 wasn’t a barnburner by anyone’s standards, but he did show a lot of promise in his new division. Kelvin Gastelum was unable to outmuscle him in the clinch, unable to take him down, and Till almost certainly landed the better strikes in what was a low-output affair overall.

Interestingly, this fight pits him against another fighter who made the journey up from 170lbs to 185lbs to tremendous effect. Like Till, Whittaker made the move up after suffering a nasty KO – in this case at the hands of Stephen Thompson at UFC 170.

‘The Reaper’ was always a solid 170lber with knockout power and a technical striking game, but the move to 185lbs benefited him hugely. Suddenly he had a tremendous speed advantage over most of his opponents, but he was also able to carry his KO power up with him.

That meant that he was able to take out the likes of Brad Tavares, Jacare Souza and Derek Brunson with brutal precision, while also being able to show enough technique to outpoint more technical strikers like Uriah Hall.

The Aussie’s rise to the top was cemented in 2017 at UFC 213, when he edged out Yoel Romero to claim the interim UFC Middleweight crown. Unfortunately though, despite being upgraded to be the undisputed champ shortly after, that’s where the wheels slowly began to come off for him.

Two serious injuries – one to his knee and a horrid staph infection in his stomach – sidelined him until deep into 2018. When he returned at UFC 225, he was somehow able to outlast Romero in a rematch, but took some absolutely tremendous punishment in the process. It was arguably one of the most damaging fights in UFC history.

Another serious injury – this time an abdominal hernia and collapsed bowel – forced him out of his next title defense and left him on the shelf for another year. This time when he returned at UFC 243, he was unable to deal with the pinpoint counter-striking of Israel Adesanya, and was knocked out, losing his title in the process.

This is his chance, then, to get back into championship contention.

In terms of styles, I’d have to favour Whittaker here. ‘The Reaper’ has been knocked out twice in his UFC career, and both losses suggest a pattern: Essentially, the Aussie simply doesn’t deal well with an opponent who has a pinpoint counter-striking game.

Sure, Romero is also a counter-fighter, but not in the same way as Thompson and Adesanya. The Cuban loves to lull his opponent into a false sense of security before opening up with a flurry, something Whittaker was able to survive.

Adesanya and Thompson on the other hand use their footwork and movement to force their opponent to make mistakes. And when they do, they land sniper-like shots as accurately as possible. Against both men, Whittaker simply couldn’t adjust in time before he ate a big shot that put him away.

Till doesn’t really fit that mould at all. He did defeat Thompson in 2018 in the kind of point-fighting affair that favoured ‘Wonderboy’, but that just means he was able to adjust to that style. It doesn’t make him a pinpoint counter-striker.

Instead, ‘The Gorilla’ loves to walk his opponent down, corral them into the fence, and then open up with his heavy strikes, particularly his left hook and his shots to the body. If he can get into the clinch, then he likes to smack his opponents with some heavy knees and elbows, too.

His style doesn’t really match any of Whittaker’s past opponents, but I do suspect that if he’s at his best, ‘The Reaper’ would be able to combat that style by using his movement to avoid finding his back to the fence.

From there, there’d be every chance that the shuffling footwork he deploys could set up a nasty shot of his own – such as a head kick or his own left hand.

With all of this considered, Whittaker by stoppage would be the smart bet here. However, that’d be ignoring the various x-factors to consider.

Firstly, while Till was KO’d by Jorge Masvidal and knocked down by Tyron Woodley at UFC 228, how much of that vulnerability came from his massive weight cut? It could be that ‘The Gorilla’ is much more durable at 185lbs.

The opposite may well be said for Whittaker. Sure, his KO losses came at the hands of pinpoint strikers, but after multiple serious injuries and two incredibly damaging fights against Romero, how much does he have left?

At 29, he certainly isn’t old, even in MMA terms. But he has reached that decade of fights mark, and has definitely taken more damage than Till.

I’m going to take Whittaker purely because I feel like his style meshes well with Till’s, but it’s not a sure bet at all. To see him hurt and stopped by ‘The Gorilla’ is a distinct possibility, but I think the Aussie probably has enough left in the tank to get through this one.

The Pick: Whittaker via third round TKO

#2 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Shogun and Nogueira first faced off in PRIDE, way back in 2005

Seeing a fight like this on a UFC card, it’d be easy to mistake this show for one of Bellator’s senior citizen “tentpole” showcases. There’s no disputing that these two Brazilians are true legends of the sport and of the UFC. Their first meeting in PRIDE is amongst the very best fights in MMA history.

However, that PRIDE fight also took place in 2005. They rematched at UFC 190 and were both considered over the hill then – and even that fight was 5 years ago!

To be quite frank, both men ought to be enjoying retirement now. With a combined age of 82, this is probably one of the “oldest” fights in UFC history.

In their prime, they were polar opposites who somehow shared a lot of similarities. Both men were great strikers with knockout power, and both had tremendous ground games. The difference was that ‘Shogun’ was like an angry hurricane, all wild offense designed to both bamboozle and hurt his opponent.

At times of course, he was more technical than his reputation suggested. He famously picked apart Lyoto Machida at UFC 104 with his leg kicks, for instance. For the most part though, his wild attacks always worked well for him. There’s even an argument that behind Jon Jones, he’s the greatest 205lber ever.

That was then, though. And essentially, since his 2011 loss to Jones at UFC 128, it’s been largely downhill. Sure, he’s shown some flashes of the old ‘Shogun’ – knockouts of Gian Villante, Tyson Pedro and James Te Huna for instance – but those wins came against opponents with some serious flaws.

When he’s lost, meanwhile, it’s tended to be pretty bad for him – his last three defeats have come by TKO and he was in deep trouble in his most recent UFC fight with Paul Craig before rallying for a draw.

Nogueira on the other hand is almost even less durable than Rua is these days. A great technical boxer, ‘Minotouro’ once had a rock-hard chin to go along with his excellent punching power. On the ground, like his brother, he was an incredible grappler and submission artist.

However, we haven’t seen that version of Nogueira for years now. He was able to use his boxing to defeat a pair of very limited fighters in Sam Alvey and Patrick Cummins. But his most recent fight saw him knocked out by Ryan Spann – the kind of fighter he’d probably have eaten alive in his earlier days.

Given the massive limitations of both men now, it’s hard to see quite how this one plays out. Given their first two fights were largely striking battles, there’s no reason to suspect this one will be any different.

That means that the outcome will likely be based around which man can land a big shot first. It could honestly go either way, but I’m leaning towards Shogun, as he was slightly quicker in his prime and at least appears capable of still taking a shot. Hopefully both men head into retirement after this one is done.

The Pick: Shogun via first round KO

#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Fabricio Werdum looked sluggish in his recent UFC loss to Alexei Oleinik

This Heavyweight fight is fascinating in that nobody would’ve thought about it as a potential UFC clash a couple of years ago. Obviously that’s because Gustafsson was always a 205lber, but following his pseudo-retirement and two losses at Light-Heavyweight, he’s decided to take the plunge and move up.

So can he come out on top in his debut in the UFC’s biggest division? I actually think he can. At 6’5” he’s definitely got the frame to be a Heavyweight. Assuming he hasn’t simply allowed himself to get out of shape – as Gian Villante did recently – then he could actually be a formidable physical force at 235lbs or thereabouts.

His striking style has always made full use of his 79” reach, and so there’s no reason to suspect that won’t be the case at Heavyweight. Of course, it’s true that he hasn’t looked great since his 2017 win over Glover Teixeira at UFC Fight Night 109. But then this extended time away from the sport may well have done him some good.

Werdum meanwhile seems to have been affected badly by the USADA-enforced suspension that kept him away from the UFC after his March 2018 loss to Alexander Volkov. ‘Vai Cavalo’ returned to action at UFC 249 in May, but failed to impress in his fight with Alexei Oleinik.

That fight, to be quite frank, saw Werdum look old. At 42 he isn’t the most senior fighter in the division, but he looked incredibly plodding, if not sluggish, particularly on the feet. The old magic still appeared to be there on the ground (he’s one of the best grapplers in MMA history after all), but extended sequences on the mat left him exhausted.

And it’s worth considering that Werdum looked bad on the feet against Oleinik, who is also a slower, plodding striker. Gustafsson, at least in his prime, was anything but plodding. His footwork, boxing and reach gave even Jon Jones problems on the feet, and he comfortably outstruck Glover Teixeira in their fight.

I’d say Werdum can win this one if he can land a takedown early on. Gustafsson’s grappling is adequate, but he’s not on the same level as ‘Vai Cavalo’, and he was submitted in his last fight by Anthony Smith. But Smith had already done a lot of solid work on the feet prior to that point.

Assuming ‘The Mauler’ hasn’t simply let himself go and moved to Heavyweight because he’s become fat, I think this is his fight. Werdum looked so sluggish on his feet at UFC 249 that it’s hard not to imagine the Swede simply dancing around him and popping him with punches while avoiding the clinch. If he can do that, I think he’ll take a decision.

The Pick: Gustafsson via unanimous decision

#4 UFC Strawweight Division: Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez

Former UFC Strawweight champ Carla Esparza is still one of the best fighters in her division

This fight was initially pegged for the UFC on ESPN card last week, but COVID-19 put an end to that, as one of Rodriguez’s cornermen tested positive. Thankfully, Rodriguez herself is healthy, and the fight will go ahead here.

This will be the Brazilian’s biggest test to date, quite comfortably. She’s 12-0-2 overall with 2 of those wins coming in the UFC. Her draws came against UFC stalwarts Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo, and interestingly, both fights followed a similar pattern.

They saw her largely beat her opponent up on the feet, only to land in trouble when they were able to take her down. The Markos fight in particular was somewhat worrying, as Rodriguez also found herself outworked in the clinch – and could easily have come out on the wrong end of the decision.

The big question in this one then is whether she can avoid Esparza’s takedown. The inaugural UFC Strawweight champion, ‘The Cookie Monster’ is also one of the smaller fighters in the division, standing at just 5’1”.

A tremendous wrestler and grappler, Esparza’s title victory stemmed almost purely from her ground game. She was able to out-hustle all of her opponents on the ground, and only lost her title when she found she simply couldn’t take Joanna Jedrzejczyk down.

Since then she’s lost just three times. Two of those losses – to Markos and to Claudia Gadelha – were hugely controversial calls that could’ve gone either way. The third came to Tatiana Suarez, a monstrous wrestler who was able to put ‘The Cookie Monster’ on her back and destroy her.

Over the years she’s improved her striking dramatically, but that lack of size and reach always seems to leave her at a disadvantage on the feet. If she can get an opponent down though, that doesn’t really matter.

The biggest issue I’d say she will have here is with Rodriguez’s size. She was able to beat Michelle Waterson despite not landing too many takedowns by getting inside to rough her up, but Waterson is also small, standing at just 5’3”. Rodriguez on the other hand is 5’7”.

This one is a tough fight to call as the path to victory for both women is so easily clear. Esparza needs to get inside, bully Rodriguez and take her down, where she could either look for a submission or simply beat her up. Rodriguez meanwhile just needs to stay on the outside and pick the former UFC champ off.

I’m favouring Esparza here just because Rodriguez has looked so defenceless on the ground in her previous UFC fights. ‘The Cookie Monster’ might be outgunned standing, but she’s got enough experience under her belt to set up her takedowns, and she can probably win rounds by landing a single one. Overall I think she can edge out a decision.

The Pick: Esparza via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Paul Craig vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov

Paul Craig has a tremendous amount of UFC experience under his belt

Quite why the UFC have chosen to showcase this Light-Heavyweight bout is a question mark to me. Neither man is nowhere near title contention, and Antigulov hasn’t won a fight since April 2017. At least it should be fun I guess – the two men’s combined records show two fights going the distance between them!

The book has essentially been written on Scotland’s Craig now. ‘Bearjew’ is a tough guy and a dangerous grappler, but at the UFC level, he lacks the raw athleticism needed to make it to the top.

That’s not to say he can’t beat better athletes. His 2018 tapout of Magomed Ankalaev was both one of the greatest upset and greatest comebacks in UFC history. And he also submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu, another tremendous athlete. However, both men made quite frankly ridiculous mistakes leading to the submissions.

Thankfully for him though, Antigulov isn’t an athlete on the level of someone like Ankalaev. A smaller 205lber who doesn’t appear to be in the best shape, like Craig the Russian is also a grappler by trade. He’s a willing striker, but isn’t exactly technical – preferring to run forward winging punches to set up his takedowns.

If he can get an opponent to the mat, he’s definitely dangerous, but it’s safe to say that he’s not the greatest wrestler, either. Could he submit Craig, though? I guess it’s possible. Craig is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu rather than a black belt and he’s willing to put himself into bad spots in order to hunt for his own submissions.

I suspect though, should he put ‘Bearjew’ onto his back, he’d be more likely to look to hurt him with strikes for a potential TKO win, as Tyson Pedro did in 2017.

The problem Antigulov is going to face here I feel is that while Craig’s definitely a limited fighter, he has far more experience. He’s fought 9 times in the UFC, and even faced former UFC champ Mauricio Rua in his last fight, even if Rua is obviously past his prime now.

Unless Antigulov can take him out in a blitz, I like Craig to outwork him, most likely on the ground – and probably pick up another late submission in the process.

The Pick: Craig via third round submission

#6 UFC Welterweight Division: Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta

Alex Oliveira looked good in his recent win over Max Griffin

It seems hard to believe now, but Sobotta has actually been in the UFC for over a decade. The Polish-born German is 4-5 in the promotion overall, after returning in 2014 following his disastrous initial run.

A strong kickboxer, Sobotta’s kick-heavy style has proven to be effective against the UFC’s lower-level fighters. However, when he’s attempted to step up in competition, he’s always struggled somewhat. He also hasn’t fought in well over two years following a TKO loss to Leon Edwards.

That’s worrying for him here as he’s facing a highly dangerous kickboxer in his own right in the form of Oliveira. ‘Cowboy’ is also one of the UFC’s most active fighters, putting together a UFC record of 10-6 since his 2015 debut.

The last couple of years have been hard on him, but he righted the ship this March when he outpointed Max Griffin at UFC 248.

A devastating striker, Oliveira loves to use his reach to its full potential. How he ever made 155lbs is anyone’s guess, given he stands at 5’11” and possesses a 76” reach. He’s got a strong jab, sits behind it to wing hard hooks, and also loves to slam his opponents with leg kicks.

But what should really concern Sobotta here is Oliveira’s ground game. The Brazilian has 4 wins by submission, but he’s more than capable on the mat. He choked out Carlos Condit, for instance, in 2018, and has also choked out the tough veteran Tim Means.

Sobotta meanwhile has never looked fully comfortable on the ground – and it was there that Edwards really took advantage of him in their fight.

Is this an impossible fight for Sobotta? Not exactly, as Oliveira is definitely beatable on the feet. It’s worth noting though that his recent losses either came against fighters with stronger takedowns than Sobotta, or more durability.

Given the fact that it’s been so long since Sobotta stepped into the Octagon, I just can’t see him having any success here. Given he’s 33 and has also been fighting professionally since 2004, it’s hard to imagine that he can have too much more left in the tank. I’m taking Oliveira by TKO.

The Pick: Oliveira via second round TKO

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#7 UFC Welterweight Division: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Rhys McKee

Khamzat Chimaev impressed in his UFC debut just a week ago

This is a seriously late notice fight, as Chimaev of course only fought on July 15th against John Phillips. For those who’ve forgotten, that fight was a one-sided beatdown, as Chimaev hurt the Welshman standing, threw him around on the ground and then submitted him with a D’Arce.

This weekend sees him drop to his more natural 170lbs, facing off with debutant McKee. ‘Skeletor’ is bringing in a pretty solid record ,10-2, but he also hasn’t really fought anyone on the level of Phillips yet, let alone Chimaev.

Footage on the Northern Irishman is interesting. It shows a tall, lanky striker who – almost like Darren Till – likes to corral his opponent into the fence. Once he’s got them cornered, ‘Skeletor’ unleashes power shots, be it with punches or head kicks, usually until his opponent goes down and out.

The issue he might have here is that Chimaev – like most of his Russian compatriots – is seemingly a phenomenal grappler. And McKee’s last loss came at the hands of a grappler in the form of Terry Brazier. That fight saw ‘Skeletor’ simply outworked on the ground – and the likelihood is that Brazier is nowhere near as powerful a wrestler as Chimaev.

McKee’s record definitely suggests he belongs on the UFC level, but will it be enough to get him past someone who looks as dangerous as Chimaev? I don’t think so, particularly as Chimaev is coming off his UFC debut so recently, while it’s a question mark over how much McKee’s been able to train.

McKee might cause a scare early with his striking, but I suspect Chimaev will take him down and dominate him from there.

The Pick: Chimaev via second round submission

#8 The Prelims: ESPN card

Tough veteran Francisco Trinaldo headlines this weekend's UFC prelims

All of Saturday’s UFC prelims will reportedly be shown on ESPN, and incredibly, there are 8 fights scheduled. That makes this card one of the biggest in UFC history in terms of the amount of fights.

At the top of the heap is a Lightweight clash between veteran Francisco Trinaldo and the UK’s Jai Herbert. Despite being 41 years old, Trinaldo has shown no signs of slowing down recently, as he comfortably outpointed John Makdessi in March.

At 10-1, Herbert clearly has talent, but this is his UFC debut and he’s facing an incredibly experienced opponent. More to the point, his grappling has never really been tested in the way that Trinaldo is capable of doing. I’ll take Trinaldo by submission in this one.

At Welterweight, Denmark’s Nicolas Dalby takes on the returning Jesse Ronson. Ronson has taken this fight on relatively late notice, and the fact that he usually fights at 155lbs should also be worrying for him. Dalby made a successful UC return in 2019, beating Alex Oliveira, and this one should also be winnable for him too. I like him to edge a decision here.

At Heavyweight, the UK’s Tom Aspinall makes his UFC debut against former Middleweight Jake Collier. A heavy hitter, Aspinall has good striking skills and fights out of Team Kaobon, which is also host to Darren Till. Collier’s grappling and toughness will make this a tricky debut for him, but whether ‘The Prototype’ will take to being at Heavyweight is a question mark. I’ll take Aspinall via decision.

In a Featherweight fight, Mike Grundy faces Movsar Evloev. A powerful grappler, Evloev is 2-0 in the UFC thus far and most recent defeated the tricky Enrique Barzola. Grundy meanwhile is a great grappler himself, one of the few UK fighters to have a base in wrestling. He’s also been highly impressive as of late, TKOing Nad Narimani in his UFC debut, although he hasn’t fought in over a year. This should be a close one to call, but I’m leaning towards Evloev via decision.

Tanner Boser returns after impressing in June to take on Raphael Pessoa in a Heavyweight clash. Pessoa clearly has some talent and impressively bested Jeff Hughes in October, but Boser looked fantastic in his win over Philipe Lins. He’s slimmed down, looks in phenomenal shape, and showed surprisingly fast hands for a big man. I’m taking Boser via TKO here.

In a Bantamweight fight, former UFC title challenger Bethe Correia faces Pannie Kianzad. A gutsy and aggressive fighter, Correia has always struggled against better athletes. She did well though in her last fight, a win over Sijara Eubanks. Kianzad isn’t the best athlete herself and to be frank, has never really beaten anyone on Correia’s level either. I think Correia can take this one by decision.

At Welterweight, Ramazan Emeev faces UFC debutant Niklas Stolze. Germany’s Soltze has a 12-3 record, but has yet to fight anyone on the level of Emeev. The Russian was outpointed by Anthony Rocco Martin in his last fight, but he’s a solid striker with extremely slick grappling. I feel like he has too much experience for Stolze here and will win by submission.

Finally, UK prospect Nathaniel Wood takes on John Castaneda at Bantamweight. Castaneda is taking this fight on horribly short notice, and while he’s got an extensive 17-4 record, it’s hard to see him having success here. Wood is a fantastic fighter in all areas and while John Dodson was a step too far for him, he should get back on the winning path here. Wood via TKO is my pick.