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#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Fabricio Werdum looked sluggish in his recent UFC loss to Alexei Oleinik

This Heavyweight fight is fascinating in that nobody would’ve thought about it as a potential UFC clash a couple of years ago. Obviously that’s because Gustafsson was always a 205lber, but following his pseudo-retirement and two losses at Light-Heavyweight, he’s decided to take the plunge and move up.

So can he come out on top in his debut in the UFC’s biggest division? I actually think he can. At 6’5” he’s definitely got the frame to be a Heavyweight. Assuming he hasn’t simply allowed himself to get out of shape – as Gian Villante did recently – then he could actually be a formidable physical force at 235lbs or thereabouts.

His striking style has always made full use of his 79” reach, and so there’s no reason to suspect that won’t be the case at Heavyweight. Of course, it’s true that he hasn’t looked great since his 2017 win over Glover Teixeira at UFC Fight Night 109. But then this extended time away from the sport may well have done him some good.

Werdum meanwhile seems to have been affected badly by the USADA-enforced suspension that kept him away from the UFC after his March 2018 loss to Alexander Volkov. ‘Vai Cavalo’ returned to action at UFC 249 in May, but failed to impress in his fight with Alexei Oleinik.

That fight, to be quite frank, saw Werdum look old. At 42 he isn’t the most senior fighter in the division, but he looked incredibly plodding, if not sluggish, particularly on the feet. The old magic still appeared to be there on the ground (he’s one of the best grapplers in MMA history after all), but extended sequences on the mat left him exhausted.

And it’s worth considering that Werdum looked bad on the feet against Oleinik, who is also a slower, plodding striker. Gustafsson, at least in his prime, was anything but plodding. His footwork, boxing and reach gave even Jon Jones problems on the feet, and he comfortably outstruck Glover Teixeira in their fight.

I’d say Werdum can win this one if he can land a takedown early on. Gustafsson’s grappling is adequate, but he’s not on the same level as ‘Vai Cavalo’, and he was submitted in his last fight by Anthony Smith. But Smith had already done a lot of solid work on the feet prior to that point.

Assuming ‘The Mauler’ hasn’t simply let himself go and moved to Heavyweight because he’s become fat, I think this is his fight. Werdum looked so sluggish on his feet at UFC 249 that it’s hard not to imagine the Swede simply dancing around him and popping him with punches while avoiding the clinch. If he can do that, I think he’ll take a decision.

The Pick: Gustafsson via unanimous decision