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#4 UFC Strawweight Division: Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez

Former UFC Strawweight champ Carla Esparza is still one of the best fighters in her division

This fight was initially pegged for the UFC on ESPN card last week, but COVID-19 put an end to that, as one of Rodriguez’s cornermen tested positive. Thankfully, Rodriguez herself is healthy, and the fight will go ahead here.

This will be the Brazilian’s biggest test to date, quite comfortably. She’s 12-0-2 overall with 2 of those wins coming in the UFC. Her draws came against UFC stalwarts Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo, and interestingly, both fights followed a similar pattern.

They saw her largely beat her opponent up on the feet, only to land in trouble when they were able to take her down. The Markos fight in particular was somewhat worrying, as Rodriguez also found herself outworked in the clinch – and could easily have come out on the wrong end of the decision.

The big question in this one then is whether she can avoid Esparza’s takedown. The inaugural UFC Strawweight champion, ‘The Cookie Monster’ is also one of the smaller fighters in the division, standing at just 5’1”.

A tremendous wrestler and grappler, Esparza’s title victory stemmed almost purely from her ground game. She was able to out-hustle all of her opponents on the ground, and only lost her title when she found she simply couldn’t take Joanna Jedrzejczyk down.

Since then she’s lost just three times. Two of those losses – to Markos and to Claudia Gadelha – were hugely controversial calls that could’ve gone either way. The third came to Tatiana Suarez, a monstrous wrestler who was able to put ‘The Cookie Monster’ on her back and destroy her.

Over the years she’s improved her striking dramatically, but that lack of size and reach always seems to leave her at a disadvantage on the feet. If she can get an opponent down though, that doesn’t really matter.

The biggest issue I’d say she will have here is with Rodriguez’s size. She was able to beat Michelle Waterson despite not landing too many takedowns by getting inside to rough her up, but Waterson is also small, standing at just 5’3”. Rodriguez on the other hand is 5’7”.

This one is a tough fight to call as the path to victory for both women is so easily clear. Esparza needs to get inside, bully Rodriguez and take her down, where she could either look for a submission or simply beat her up. Rodriguez meanwhile just needs to stay on the outside and pick the former UFC champ off.

I’m favouring Esparza here just because Rodriguez has looked so defenceless on the ground in her previous UFC fights. ‘The Cookie Monster’ might be outgunned standing, but she’s got enough experience under her belt to set up her takedowns, and she can probably win rounds by landing a single one. Overall I think she can edge out a decision.

The Pick: Esparza via unanimous decision