UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till - Predictions and Picks

#6 UFC Welterweight Division: Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta

Alex Oliveira looked good in his recent win over Max Griffin

It seems hard to believe now, but Sobotta has actually been in the UFC for over a decade. The Polish-born German is 4-5 in the promotion overall, after returning in 2014 following his disastrous initial run.

A strong kickboxer, Sobotta’s kick-heavy style has proven to be effective against the UFC’s lower-level fighters. However, when he’s attempted to step up in competition, he’s always struggled somewhat. He also hasn’t fought in well over two years following a TKO loss to Leon Edwards.

That’s worrying for him here as he’s facing a highly dangerous kickboxer in his own right in the form of Oliveira. ‘Cowboy’ is also one of the UFC’s most active fighters, putting together a UFC record of 10-6 since his 2015 debut.

The last couple of years have been hard on him, but he righted the ship this March when he outpointed Max Griffin at UFC 248.

A devastating striker, Oliveira loves to use his reach to its full potential. How he ever made 155lbs is anyone’s guess, given he stands at 5’11” and possesses a 76” reach. He’s got a strong jab, sits behind it to wing hard hooks, and also loves to slam his opponents with leg kicks.

But what should really concern Sobotta here is Oliveira’s ground game. The Brazilian has 4 wins by submission, but he’s more than capable on the mat. He choked out Carlos Condit, for instance, in 2018, and has also choked out the tough veteran Tim Means.

Sobotta meanwhile has never looked fully comfortable on the ground – and it was there that Edwards really took advantage of him in their fight.

Is this an impossible fight for Sobotta? Not exactly, as Oliveira is definitely beatable on the feet. It’s worth noting though that his recent losses either came against fighters with stronger takedowns than Sobotta, or more durability.

Given the fact that it’s been so long since Sobotta stepped into the Octagon, I just can’t see him having any success here. Given he’s 33 and has also been fighting professionally since 2004, it’s hard to imagine that he can have too much more left in the tank. I’m taking Oliveira by TKO.

The Pick: Oliveira via second round TKO

---

#7 UFC Welterweight Division: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Rhys McKee

Khamzat Chimaev impressed in his UFC debut just a week ago

This is a seriously late notice fight, as Chimaev of course only fought on July 15th against John Phillips. For those who’ve forgotten, that fight was a one-sided beatdown, as Chimaev hurt the Welshman standing, threw him around on the ground and then submitted him with a D’Arce.

This weekend sees him drop to his more natural 170lbs, facing off with debutant McKee. ‘Skeletor’ is bringing in a pretty solid record ,10-2, but he also hasn’t really fought anyone on the level of Phillips yet, let alone Chimaev.

Footage on the Northern Irishman is interesting. It shows a tall, lanky striker who – almost like Darren Till – likes to corral his opponent into the fence. Once he’s got them cornered, ‘Skeletor’ unleashes power shots, be it with punches or head kicks, usually until his opponent goes down and out.

The issue he might have here is that Chimaev – like most of his Russian compatriots – is seemingly a phenomenal grappler. And McKee’s last loss came at the hands of a grappler in the form of Terry Brazier. That fight saw ‘Skeletor’ simply outworked on the ground – and the likelihood is that Brazier is nowhere near as powerful a wrestler as Chimaev.

McKee’s record definitely suggests he belongs on the UFC level, but will it be enough to get him past someone who looks as dangerous as Chimaev? I don’t think so, particularly as Chimaev is coming off his UFC debut so recently, while it’s a question mark over how much McKee’s been able to train.

McKee might cause a scare early with his striking, but I suspect Chimaev will take him down and dominate him from there.

The Pick: Chimaev via second round submission