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#5 UFC Bantamweight Division: Thomas Almeida vs. Jonathan Martinez

Thomas Almeida was once considered one of the UFC's top prospects.

In a lot of ways, 2015 doesn’t exactly seem that long ago, but in the world of the UFC, in a five-year period like that, so many things can change. And the changing fortunes of Thomas Almeida sum that up perfectly.

2015 ended with Almeida knocking out Anthony Birchak to take his record to 20-0. The Brazilian looked every part the next big UFC Bantamweight contender, and indeed, he was pushed into his first UFC main event in mid-2016, taking on Cody Garbrandt.

Of course, Garbrandt then knocked him out, and while he rebounded later that year with a win over Albert Morales, he’s since lost his last two fights and hasn’t fought since another KO loss at the hands of Rob Font in January 2018. Almeida is still only 29 and clearly has a lot to offer, but how far he can go now is anyone’s guess.

Thankfully, injuries haven’t been the reason for his long layoff. He’s instead had issues with his eyes, requiring surgery to fix his vision. So in that sense, the layoff may have done him some good. So given that Martinez is taking this fight on late notice – replacing the COVID-19 positive Alejandro Perez – is this a winnable fight for Almeida?

I would probably say it is. Martinez debuted in the UFC back in 2018, losing a tight decision to Andre Soukhamthath. Since then, he’s gone 3-1, and most recently took out Frankie Saenz in August. A fighter who relies primarily on his speed, Martinez is strong in all areas. However, he isn’t the kind of striking beast that’s given Almeida so many issues in his most recent fights.

There’s every chance that Almeida is simply no longer a UFC-level fighter, and if that’s the case, then Martinez will probably take him out quickly. But in reality, there’s no reason to suspect that’s the case. Sure, the Brazilian’s chin isn’t brilliant, but the men who KO’d him – Garbrandt and Font – hit very hard, and there’s no shame in a decision loss to Jimmie Rivera.

Almeida is still likely to have the same issues he’s always had – his raw aggression means he’s far too hittable to compete with the UFC’s heavier strikers. But I’m not sure that will be a problem against Martinez, who’s much more of a hit-and-move type despite winning his last fight by KO.

This should be a firefight, but unless Almeida is totally shot, then I’m picking him to take his first UFC victory since 2016.

The Pick: Almeida via second-round KO