UFC Fight Night 137: Santos vs. Anders - Predictions and Picks

#3 Sam Alvey vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Sam Alvey is completely reliant on his counter punching

Given he hasn’t fought since his November 2016 loss to Ryan Bader, you could be forgiven for believing that PRIDE legend Antonio Rogerio Nogueira had retired. But at the age of 42, he’s surprisingly still going, and Saturday marks his return from a controversial USADA suspension due to a positive test for PEDs apparently caused by a contaminated supplement.

His opponent Alvey is a tricky fighter to get a read on – he’s almost a pure counterpuncher, who tends to do very little outside of wait for an opportunity to land his brutal counter right hook. If opponents can avoid that punch then he tends to lose in dull outings, but if he lands – see his knockout of Marcin Prachnio in February – then ‘Smilin Sam’ usually gets his hand raised.

Basically, this fight will come down to whether Nogueira can avoid Alvey’s counter right hook in what will be a match of two southpaws. Nogueira’s boxing skills were once some of the best in the division – he beat Rashad Evans essentially using nothing but a jab in 2013 – but he’s so old and rusty now that whether he still has the reflexes to avoid the counterpunch is a major question.

Of course, if the fight were to hit the ground, Alvey would likely be toast due to Nogueira’s extensive submission skills, but the Brazilian was never the best takedown artist in his prime – meaning the fight will probably take place standing. If that’s the case then ‘Lil Nog’ could jab Alvey to death, but it’s more likely that ‘Smilin Sam’ will catch him at some point. And it’ll be sad to see.

The pick: Alvey via second round KO