UFC Fight Night 140: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio - Predictions and Picks

#4 Cezar Ferreira vs. Ian Heinisch

Cezar Ferreira is a physical freak at 185lbs

Once considered a classic glass cannon due to his flashy striking game being unable to hide an extremely weak chin, Vitor Belfort protégé Cezar ‘Mutante’ Ferreira has now followed a similar path to Heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem; he’s cut down more of his risky offense to become a more economic, cautious fighter, and it’s worked for him – he hasn’t been finished now since an ill-advised cut to 170lbs in 2015.

Initially pegged to fight British prospect Tom Breese here, he’s instead faced with a late replacement in Ian Heinisch, another veteran of Dana White’s Contender Series. At 11-1, Heinisch brings in a solid record that he’s put together using a solid wrestling game to compliment some heavy striking.

This is the kind of game that’s given ‘Mutante’ some problems in the past, but it’s also a worrying match for Heinisch for a few reasons. Firstly, the best grappler he’s faced thus far – Markus Perez – was able to coax a tapout from him. And secondly, he’s rather small for 185lbs, standing at 5’11”, while Ferreira is an absolute physical freak, huge and ripped at the weight.

Essentially, I have doubts that Heinisch can keep ‘Mutante’ from taking him down, and from the top Ferreira has some excellent jiu-jitsu, as evidenced by his arm triangle wins over Karl Roberson and Jack Hermansson.

Heinisch may be able to catch Ferreira with a big strike and stun him early, but unless it’s a one-hit KO I’m not convinced he can stay off his back, and if ‘Mutante’ takes him down, he’s likely doomed. Throw in a likely questionable gas tank due to the late notice, and this looks like Ferreira’s fight to lose.

The Pick: Ferreira via second round submission