UFC Fight Night 141: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 - Predictions and Picks

The UFC has slowly been making inroads into Asia for some time now, and this Saturday marks the MMA juggernaut’s first event in Beijing, China. The UFC has been to mainland China once before – pretty much exactly a year ago for the Bisping vs. Gastelum Fight Night card, and this weekend’s event is very similar.

We’ve got a highly intriguing main event on tap as well as a handful of other intriguing bouts, but for the most part the card is filled with local Chinese fighters – most of whom have made their debut on the UFC’s previous Asian excursions – and interest levels are probably going to be pretty low overall.

Still, it’s a Fight Pass card that takes place at 11:30 am UK time and very early in the morning for US viewers, so it’s only ever going to appeal to hardcore fans anyway. We don’t have a solid bout order yet but for this article, I’m going on the current order shown on UFC.com and assuming that – as with previous Fight Pass cards – the main card will be a four-fight offering.

Here are the predicted outcomes for Fight Night 141 in Beijing.

---

#1 Curtis Blaydes vs. Francis Ngannou

Blaydes and Ngannou first fought in 2016, with Ngannou winning via doctor stoppage

The Heavyweights get the main event slot here as the current #3 ranked Blaydes takes on the #4 ranked Ngannou in a rematch from their initial encounter back in April 2016. That fight saw Ngannou win via doctor’s stoppage when Blaydes’ right eye became swollen shut to the point that he couldn’t see. Things have changed dramatically since then, with both men rising to the top of the division – and one seemingly sliding back down rapidly.

2018 has been a year to forget for Ngannou. The UFC looked like they were ready to strap the rocket to his back when he was booked against Stipe Miocic for the Heavyweight title in January, but despite coming in on red-hot form after knocking Alistair Overeem unconscious, he ran out of steam against Miocic when he failed to finish him early and ended up being beaten down over the course of 5 rounds.

There was no shame in Ngannou losing that way – the fight was a huge step up for him and there was a lot of pressure on him, too – but his follow-up fight saw a loss to Derrick Lewis in the worst possible way. Ngannou looked gunshy and timid, and the fight turned into a staring contest with Lewis winning by merit of landing about five more strikes than his opponent.

Blaydes meanwhile hasn’t lost in the UFC since that debut setback to Ngannou, and he’s slowly been climbing the ranks ever since, using his powerful wrestling game and a massively improved striking game to go with it, too. His win over Mark Hunt in February saw him take some heavy shots – showing an incredible chin - before out-grappling the Kiwi to a decision, but his July win over Overeem was far more impressive, as he largely outlanded the Dutchman standing before destroying him on the ground for a TKO win.

I honestly can’t really see any way for Ngannou to win this one right now. Even if he returns to the monstrous form that he showed pre-Miocic, he’s still up against it when it comes to facing Blaydes. ‘Razor’ gave him the toughest fight on his way up the ladder – he was the only man to take the Cameroonian down, for instance – and that was in just his 6th professional fight.

Since then he’s been training with better coaches and partners – including former foe Overeem since the summer – and is in far better shape, too. He still has the incredibly strong wrestling game that he brought into the UFC with him (one more takedown and he has the record for most takedowns in UFC Heavyweight history) but he’s now much more well-rounded which means he can set his takedowns up far more easily using his strikes.

‘The Predator’ does have the kind of face-melting power that can change a fight in an instant, but in that sense, Blaydes has another advantage over other opponents – he’s felt Ngannou’s power before and survived, and he also came back from a few huge shots from Hunt. His chin is proven to be granite, even at the Heavyweight level.

It might be tough for Blaydes to put Ngannou away given the toughness he showed against Miocic in January, but I suspect – looking to cement himself as *the* top contender in the division – Blaydes will bring far more aggression than the champion did. I expect him to drag Ngannou to the ground on multiple occasions and eventually put him away in violent fashion.

The Pick: Blaydes via third round TKO

#2 Alistair Overeem vs. Sergey Pavlovich

Longtime veteran Alistair Overeem fights in his 15th UFC outing this weekend

Saturday’s co-main event sees another fight in the Heavyweight division. This time we’ve got former title challenger and longtime veteran Alistair Overeem taking on a newcomer in the form of the undefeated Sergey Pavlovich, the former champion in the Russian promotion Fight Nights Global. To see Overeem fighting a UFC newcomer is quite a surprise, which means the UFC brass could have high hopes for Pavlovich.

At this stage, everyone knows the deal with Overeem. Signed by the UFC in 2011, the former K-1 Grand Prix and StrikeForce Heavyweight champion are one of the most decorated strikers in all of MMA, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty expectations that many fans put on him after he TKO’d Brock Lesnar in his UFC debut. That isn’t to say he’s done badly – a UFC record of 8-6 is pretty good considering the strength of his competition.

Overeem’s big weakness has always been the same – he’s always had issues taking big shots, probably due to a mix of the cumulative damage he’s taken in his near 20-year career, and the fact that he initially competed at the lower weight of 205lbs.

Outside of that though, he’s dangerous in all areas, with a highly underrated grappling game to go along with an extensive striking arsenal from range and inside the clinch. He’s a far smarter fighter now than he ever was, too – probably due to the need to protect his chin so heavily.

Pavlovich meanwhile is a former Greco-Roman wrestling champion, but he hasn’t exactly used that grappling background a lot in his MMA career thus far. He’s instead used his brute striking power to take out 9 of his opponents thus far. Standing at 6’3” and weighing around 235lbs, Pavlovich is a physical specimen and hits like one, too.

That could be worrying for Overeem in a sense that he’s been destroyed by brute power-punchers before – Francis Ngannou comes to mind – but watching footage of Pavlovich suggests to me that he might be simply too wild with his attacks to catch a fighter as experienced as ‘The Reem’. In his fights that went the distance, most notably Pavlovich slowed down tremendously and reduced his attacking output to short bursts rather than a sustained assault.

Overeem has also displayed excellent takedown defense throughout his career as a Heavyweight, and when he’s on the ground he’s a handful, with a deadly guillotine choke in his arsenal as well as some nasty ground-and-pound if he gets on top. The only fighter to really handle him on the mat was Curtis Blaydes – and he’s the best prospect in the division right now.

Despite the damage, he’s taken in his career and the fact that he’s coming off back-to-back losses, I like this fight for Overeem. He’ll be the bigger man, has a massive experience advantage and he’s far and away the best opponent Pavlovich has faced, particularly when it comes to striking technique. Pavlovich could take him out in a rush but if Overeem fights smartly – as he did against the likes of Roy Nelson and Andrei Arlovski – then I expect him to pick the Russian newcomer apart and probably put him away midway through the fight.

The Pick: Overeem via second-round TKO

#3 Song Yadong vs. Vince Morales

Song Yadong has two wins in the UFC thus far

Chinese fighters have found success hard to come by in the UFC – remember how badly the two winners of 2014’s The Ultimate Fighter: China ended up doing? But slowly, some of the Chinese talent the UFC has brought in recently have begun to do a little better, and one of those fighters is ‘The Terminator’ Song Yadong.

Yadong currently stands at 2-0 in the UFC, and he’s finished both of his fights in violent fashion. Last November’s event in Beijing saw him drop Indian debutant Bharat Khandare before submitting him with a front choke, and then in June, he took out the far more experienced Brazilian Felipe Arantes with a vicious elbow strike in the waning seconds of the second round.

Now training with Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, Yadong is a strong physical specimen at 135lbs and has shown some excellent boxing skills in his UFC career thus far, as he tagged both Khandare and Arantes with quick counterpunches throughout both fights. His grappling also looked on point against Arantes, as he stuffed the Brazilian’s takedowns and secured top control, where he did a fair amount of damage, too.

Interestingly enough, he was initially pegged to take on a former top ten contender in Frankie Saenz here, but when Saenz dropped with an injury, the UFC brought in Morales as a late replacement. ‘Vandetta’ is taking this fight on around 3 weeks’ notice; not exactly a great amount of time to prepare for a UFC debut on enemy turf.

Morales – currently at 8-2 – was first unearthed by the UFC on Dana White’s Contender Series earlier this year, but after losing his fight on the show he picked up a win in Bellator before returning for this match. His fight on the Contender Series saw him fight passively early on, but he was able to drop opponent Domingo Pilarte late in the first round and almost put him away. The second round, however, saw him fight more aggressively, and this allowed Pilarte to secure a takedown and from there, choke Morales completely unconscious.

This is a tough fight to call given both men are still largely unproven at the UFC level, but I’m leaning slightly towards Yadong; he’s had more preparation time, will be fighting at home, and his strong counterpunches could work well for him if Morales comes out aggressively, which could be expected. I’m envisioning an exciting fight with Yadong probably coming out on top as Morales tires down the final stretch.

The Pick: Yadong via unanimous decision

#4 Li Jingliang vs. David Zawada

Li Jingliang has been the UFC's most impressive Chinese import so far

The first Chinese fighter to see success in the UFC, Jingliang has been around for years now – dating back to his Octagon debut in 2014. He’s put together a solid 8-3 record since, showing strong skills in all areas, including a sticky wrestling game and surprisingly heavy punching power. Last November, he returned to China to knock out Zak Ottow in impressive fashion.

Unfortunately for Jingliang, for all of his success thus far, he may well be the benefactor of some nice booking form the UFC’s matchmakers. Of his wins, only Dhiego Lima stands out as a really strong opponent – and his chin has historically been really questionable. Still, he’s never truly been beaten down in the Octagon, which means he’s a difficult opponent for anyone.

His opponent on Saturday hails from Germany and brings in one of the coolest nicknames in the entire UFC. David Zawada is nicknamed ‘Sagat’ – after the famous Street Fighter character – but where the video game Sagat was a pure Thai boxer, Zawada is far better-rounded than that. He’s got a healthy mix of wins via TKO and submission on his record, and he showed off his skills in his UFC debut in July.

Coming in on around a week’s notice, Zawada took the fight to tough Brit Danny Roberts, going toe-to-toe with him standing and putting him under extreme pressure on the ground – coming close to finishing with a D’Arce choke in the third round. Arguably, it was only a lacking gas tank – explained by the late notice – that prevented him from winning a decision.

This is a tough fight to call as both men are quite similar – they both like to strike in an aggressive fashion and both have shown power in their previous fights, and both men are adept in the grappling area, most particularly from top control. Jingliang has more UFC experience, but Zawada has fought and beaten a handful of notable UFC veterans, too.

I expect this one to go the distance but I’m leaning towards what I suspect will be a mild upset. Jake Matthews largely handled Jingliang on the ground in February and based on what he showed in July, I think Zawada can replicate that success, particularly with a full training camp behind him.

The Pick: Zawada via split decision

#5 The Prelims: Fight Pass card

Chinese prospect Kenan Song highlights the prelim card

As the whole card is being shown on Fight Pass for most viewers, it’s a little tricky to separate it into a ‘main card’ and ‘prelim fights’ in the traditional sense, but the likelihood is that the following 8 fights will not be televised in countries such as the UK, so I’m counting them as the preliminary bouts.

First up we’ve got China’s Kenan Song – 2-0 in the UFC right now – taking on Alex Morono, who is all even at 3-3 in the UFC if you ignore the marijuana bust that caused Niko Price’s win over him to be rendered a No Contest. Song’s heavy hands – he’s knocked out both of his UFC opponents and has 7 knockouts on his record – make me lean towards him here, particularly as Morono is more of a grappler who’s found it somewhat hard to work his takedowns at times. Song by knockout is the pick.

In a battle of Heavyweights, Hu Yaozong takes on Rashad Coulter in what should be a loser-leaves-town match given Yaozong lost his UFC debut last November and hasn’t fought since, while Coulter is 0-3 in the Octagon. I’m taking Coulter here, probably by TKO, as despite his terrible UFC record, he was competitive with all of his opponents – including the fast-rising Tai Tuivasa – and despite being short for a Heavyweight, he’s a big guy, while Yaozong showed very little in his UFC debut against Cyril Asker.

Former Flyweights Martin Day and Liu Pingyuan will throw down at Bantamweight – another signal that the 125lbs division doesn’t have long left. Footage on Day is pretty hard to come by outside of his loss on Dana White’s Contender Series last year, while Pingyuan is far more experienced and looked decent in his July win over Damian Stasiak. I worry about Day’s physicality here going against a fighter who appears to have a size advantage, so I’ll take Pingyuan by decision.

Kevin Holland will take on Welsh fighter John Phillips in a rare fight on this card to not involve a Chinese combatant. A training partner of Conor McGregor, Phillips showed very little in his UFC debut – a quick loss to Charles Byrd – and while he’s had a ton of experience and has good punching power, he’s traditionally struggled against grappling-based opponents. That’s worrying for him against Holland, who showed insane toughness in his Octagon debut against Thiago Santos, and he even had Santos in trouble on the ground at points. Holland via a ground-based TKO would be my pick.

Former Flyweight Louis Smolka makes his return to face the interestingly-named Sumudaerji Sumudaerji at 135lbs, and given the dearth of footage on Sumudaerji, it’s not an easy one to call. Smolka is smaller but I suspect his UFC experience will see him through, as he traditionally only struggled with more grappling-based fighters like Ray Borg and is pretty well-rounded himself. Smolka via submission is my pick.

The unbeaten Lauren Mueller takes on Wu Yanan in the Women’s Flyweight division and while the Chinese fighter has more experience, I’m taking Mueller to pull out the win here. Yanan worryingly hasn’t fought since the UFC’s last outing into China a year ago, and she didn’t look to offer much there in a loss to Gina Mazany. Mueller hasn’t moved the earth yet but she’s been very solid and comes from a good camp in Alliance MMA. I’ll take Mueller via decision.

Formerly considered the best Strawweight in the world, Jessica Aguilar has struggled in the UFC thus far, pulling out of numerous fights with injuries and losing to Claudia Gadelha and Cortney Casey before picking up a maiden win over Jodie Esquibel in July. Weili Zhang meanwhile defeated the tough Danielle Taylor in August and is on a 17-fight win streak. In her prime, I’d have taken Aguilar to win via her strong grappling game, but I worry she’s past her prime now after so many injuries, so I’m taking Zhang via decision.

Finally sometime Japanese pro-wrestler, kickboxer and MMA fighter Syuri Kondo takes on Yan Xiaonan in the opening fight. Both women are relatively inexperienced in MMA but I’m going purely by what I’ve seen from them here, and Xiaonan defeated a pair of solid opponents in Kailin Curran and Viviane Pereira in her first 2 UFC fights, while Kondo edged out Chan-Mi Jeon in her debut and was easily beaten by Polania Botelho in her second outing. Given how bad Kondo looked in that fight, I can’t pick her in good conscience so I’m taking Xiaonan via TKO.