UFC Fight Night 141: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 - Predictions and Picks

#2 Alistair Overeem vs. Sergey Pavlovich

Longtime veteran Alistair Overeem fights in his 15th UFC outing this weekend

Saturday’s co-main event sees another fight in the Heavyweight division. This time we’ve got former title challenger and longtime veteran Alistair Overeem taking on a newcomer in the form of the undefeated Sergey Pavlovich, the former champion in the Russian promotion Fight Nights Global. To see Overeem fighting a UFC newcomer is quite a surprise, which means the UFC brass could have high hopes for Pavlovich.

At this stage, everyone knows the deal with Overeem. Signed by the UFC in 2011, the former K-1 Grand Prix and StrikeForce Heavyweight champion are one of the most decorated strikers in all of MMA, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty expectations that many fans put on him after he TKO’d Brock Lesnar in his UFC debut. That isn’t to say he’s done badly – a UFC record of 8-6 is pretty good considering the strength of his competition.

Overeem’s big weakness has always been the same – he’s always had issues taking big shots, probably due to a mix of the cumulative damage he’s taken in his near 20-year career, and the fact that he initially competed at the lower weight of 205lbs.

Outside of that though, he’s dangerous in all areas, with a highly underrated grappling game to go along with an extensive striking arsenal from range and inside the clinch. He’s a far smarter fighter now than he ever was, too – probably due to the need to protect his chin so heavily.

Pavlovich meanwhile is a former Greco-Roman wrestling champion, but he hasn’t exactly used that grappling background a lot in his MMA career thus far. He’s instead used his brute striking power to take out 9 of his opponents thus far. Standing at 6’3” and weighing around 235lbs, Pavlovich is a physical specimen and hits like one, too.

That could be worrying for Overeem in a sense that he’s been destroyed by brute power-punchers before – Francis Ngannou comes to mind – but watching footage of Pavlovich suggests to me that he might be simply too wild with his attacks to catch a fighter as experienced as ‘The Reem’. In his fights that went the distance, most notably Pavlovich slowed down tremendously and reduced his attacking output to short bursts rather than a sustained assault.

Overeem has also displayed excellent takedown defense throughout his career as a Heavyweight, and when he’s on the ground he’s a handful, with a deadly guillotine choke in his arsenal as well as some nasty ground-and-pound if he gets on top. The only fighter to really handle him on the mat was Curtis Blaydes – and he’s the best prospect in the division right now.

Despite the damage, he’s taken in his career and the fact that he’s coming off back-to-back losses, I like this fight for Overeem. He’ll be the bigger man, has a massive experience advantage and he’s far and away the best opponent Pavlovich has faced, particularly when it comes to striking technique. Pavlovich could take him out in a rush but if Overeem fights smartly – as he did against the likes of Roy Nelson and Andrei Arlovski – then I expect him to pick the Russian newcomer apart and probably put him away midway through the fight.

The Pick: Overeem via second-round TKO