UFC Fight Night 142: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa - Predictions and Picks

The UFC presents a double-header this weekend, with the TUF 28 Finale taking place in Las Vegas on Friday night, and then Fight Night 142 coming from Adelaide, South Australia on Saturday night. Neither card looks like the greatest on paper, but Fight Night 142 in particular has some really intriguing fights on tap.

The theme for the card appears to be legends vs. prospects, as the top three fights all come in that form, and with plenty of local Australian talent up and down the card, a hot crowd is pretty much a guarantee.

Interestingly enough, this will also be the final UFC card to be aired on Fox Sports 1 (in the US), and so hopefully a run that’s lasted since the channel’s launch in 2013 can go out with a bang.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 142 in Adelaide.

#1 Junior Dos Santos vs. Tai Tuivasa

Young prospect Tai Tuivasa faces his biggest challenge to date in the form of Junior Dos Santos

After last week’s Heavyweight showcase in the main event of Fight Night 141, the big boys once again take centre stage as former UFC Heavyweight champ Junior Dos Santos faces off with unbeaten Aussie up-and-comer Tai Tuivasa. It’s a huge step up in competition for Tuivasa, who currently stands at 3-0 in the Octagon, so can he jump to the elite level? Or will the Brazilian veteran send him back down the ladder?

Tuivasa is an interesting case in that rather than climbing the UFC ladder rung-by-rung, he’s literally been jumping in huge distances instead. ‘Bam Bam’ debuted last November in a sloppy-but-entertaining brawl with Rashad Coulter – a fight that saw Tuivasa surprise everyone by finishing Coulter with a flying knee, belying his large frame – and then followed that with a one-sided knockout of the overmatched Cyril Asker in February.

A big fight with Andrei Arlovski was then set up for June’s UFC 225 and Tuivasa managed to pass that test, albeit in what was by far the toughest fight of his career. ‘Bam Bam’ displayed surprisingly solid cardio, a varied striking game and his usual heavy power to beat the former champion, although it wasn’t flawless as he took his fair share of shots, too.

Dos Santos is another step up in competition for him. The former champion was once the premier Heavyweight in the sport, but two losses to Cain Velasquez in 2012 and 2013 have hit him hard. His once-iron chin is now extremely vulnerable and a severe weakness in being susceptible to big shots when he’s backed into the cage has been exposed by other opponents like Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem.

Despite losing some big fights, Dos Santos is coming off a solid win over UFC newcomer Blagoy Ivanov earlier this year. At 34 years old it’s unsurprising that ‘Cigano’ is far slower than he once was, but that doesn’t make him completely finished. He’s still got an excellent MMA boxing game, setting his big strikes up with a stiff jab, and he’s still a pretty good athlete in comparison to most of his competition.

For Tuivasa, the worrying thing about this fight is that boxing game. Arlovski was a big win for him but at this stage in his career Andrei simply doesn’t have a striking skillset anywhere close to what JDS can offer, as he largely tends to spam his right hand and low kicks without really setting them up. Dos Santos is far more varied and will offer a far greater challenge to Tuivasa. At 6’1” and with a 2-inch reach disadvantage, can the Aussie get past JDS’s ramrod jab to land a big shot?

You can’t count ‘Bam Bam’ out here because it’s unlikely that he’ll simply circle and allow Dos Santos to jab him to death as Ben Rothwell and Ivanov did when faced with the Brazilian. Instead he’s likely to wade in with powerful shots, and look to rely on his own durability to be able to take whatever comes at him and reply with something harder. If he can back JDS into the fence then there’s definitely the potential for him to hurt and finish the Brazilian, likely with a left or right hook.

Overall though the fight makes me think too much of Dos Santos’s last two wins against Rothwell and Ivanov. Tuivasa is a superior athlete to both of those fighters but I still suspect Dos Santos has enough in the tank to pick him apart over 25 minutes. Should the fight end before the final buzzer though, I’d expect it to be Tuivasa with his hand raised.

The Pick: Dos Santos via unanimous decision

#2 Mark Hunt vs. Justin Willis

Mark Hunt will likely fight in the UFC for the final time against Justin Willis

Like the main event, this fight features a longtime title contender on the downswing of his career against a hot up-and-comer looking for a breakout victory. Recent reports suggest that this fight will mark the end of Hunt’s 8 year career with the UFC, as after this – his 18th Octagon appearance – he’ll be out of contract and doesn’t intend to re-sign with the promotion – hardly a shock given he’s currently embroiled in a lawsuit against them.

Legal matters aside, it’s likely that the end is nigh for Hunt anyway. He still possesses his excellent striking game and unbelievable knockout power, but it’s now well over two years since his last walk-off knockout – a win over Frank Mir – and recently he’s shown signs that his speed and famous durability are finally beginning to fade.

‘The Super Samoan’ hurt Curtis Blaydes early in their February fight but was then taken down easily and took a massive beating on the ground, and in September, he was stunned by punches from Aleksei Oleinik – not a noted striker – and then submitted when the fight hit the ground. At 44 years old, it’s hardly a surprise that the veteran is no longer the fighter he was in his prime.

All of this bodes well for Willis, who could easily be described as being a larger, not quite as skilled version of Daniel Cormier. The two men share a fire hydrant-esque physique, the difference being Willis cuts weight to make the 265lbs Heavyweight limit. And like his AKA teammate, Willis uses a combination of a powerful wrestling game and a surprisingly sharp striking repertoire to win his fights.

Thus far ‘Big Pretty’ is 3-0 in the UFC, but Hunt is a big step up for him given his best opponent thus far has probably been Chase Sherman. We know exactly what Hunt offers at this stage – and what he doesn’t offer, too. So for me this fight comes down to two factors:

Firstly, can Willis absorb a big shot from Hunt, who is still an extremely dangerous striker? It’s notable that he does have two TKO losses on his record – one as an amateur – and hasn’t really been hit heavily by any of his three UFC opponents thus far. If he does take a big shot, he does have his wrestling game to fall back on, but that may well rely on the second factor.

That factor is what kind of shape Willis comes into the fight in. Despite his chubby physique we know that Hunt isn’t likely to gas out – he’s gone 5 rounds twice in the UFC and had enough left to take out Derrick Lewis in the 4th round of their fight. Willis meanwhile looked extremely tired in his 3-rounder with Sherman earlier this year despite largely bossing the fight.

Given Hunt’s waning durability and the general power in all areas of Willis, I’m favouring the American prospect here, but it’s a close one to call and if ‘The Super Samoan’ can land one of his killer blows, he may well end his UFC career on a high. But overall I just can’t trust a man who’s 44 and is clearly coming close to the end.

The Pick: Willis via second round TKO

#3 Tyson Pedro vs. Mauricio Rua

Can former UFC champion Shogun Rua turn back the clock against Tyson Pedro?

Like his fellow Aussie prospect and good friend Tai Tuivasa, it’s been a quick rise through the UFC ranks for Tyson Pedro, largely because, like Tuivasa, he fights in a weight class relatively thin on talent. Pedro debuted with two impressive wins, beating Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig, but failed in his first step up against Ilir Latifi. An easy win over Saparbek Safarov put him back on track, but despite hurting Ovince St. Preux early in their fight, he was eventually reversed and submitted just moments later.

Despite some clear holes in his game, though – a reckless nature that leaves him open and a questionable defensive grappling game – Pedro is an A+ explosive athlete who’s been around the sport for most of his life, given his father was an MMA promoter himself. He’s also a ruthless finisher who has never gone the distance in any of his 7 professional wins.

All of this bodes well for him on Saturday. His opponent, ‘Shogun’, is of course a true legend of MMA. The winner of the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix, the Brazilian then went on to win the UFC Light-Heavyweight title in 2010, and prior to the emergence of Jon Jones, he had a very fair claim on being the best 205lbs fighter in the history of the sport.

The problem for the Brazilian is that we haven’t seen the ‘real’ Shogun now for many years. A combination of age, injuries and damage mean that in 2018 he’s simply a shadow of his former self. Sure, we’ve seen flashes of his old greatness – he was actually on a three-fight win streak until this year – but his July loss to Anthony Smith was painful to watch.

Rua came in looking nowhere close to his best shape, seemed far slower than he’d been even in his March 2017 fight with Gian Villante, and was then taken out by a vicious barrage of strikes in just over a minute. The fight appeared to suggest the Brazilian’s durability is totally gone, and so Pedro will definitely look to take him out in a similar rush on Saturday.

Can he do it? I suspect he can; ‘Shogun’ simply isn’t durable nor quick enough to trade off with his younger opponent these days, and so his only clear path to victory would be to take Pedro down and hunt for a submission. The issue is that he doesn’t have a notable wrestling background and with multiple knee surgeries behind him, he likely won’t have the strength in his takedowns that he did in his prime.

MMA has always been a sport that’s relied on feeding its veterans to its up-and-comers, and this fight isn’t likely to buck the trend. For longtime PRIDE fans it’ll be difficult viewing, but the Aussie crowd should eat it right up.

The Pick: Pedro via first round KO

#4 Jake Matthews vs. Anthony Rocco Martin

One of the UFC's youngest talents, Jake Matthews is back in action this weekend

If I’m honest, I saw this fight advertised on the Fight Night 141 broadcast and was baffled as I’d never heard of Anthony Rocco Martin, and figured he was an Aussie newcomer taking the fight on short notice. That isn’t the case, though – he is in fact the 10-fight UFC veteran Tony Martin now going by his full name. Weird to see a name change like that in MMA but it’s certainly a more memorable moniker.

Martin has flown under the radar with UFC fans for years, but he’s built a sneakily good record since his 2014 debut, going 6-4 in the Octagon with 3 finishes to his name. Initially a hulking grappler at 155lbs, Martin had issues making the Lightweight limit and this caused a penchant for gassing out – an issue which led directly to a couple of his losses.

2018 has seen him move to 170lbs though and the results have been dramatic. Martin comfortably defeated veteran Keita Nakamura in April and then starched Ryan LaFlare with a stunning striking display in October – LaFlare was put away with a vicious right head kick and some follow-up punches. The fight was seriously impressive and suggested that at 28, Martin might be ready to make a run for the top.

Matthews has seen a similar trajectory inside the UFC. He initially came from the TUF: Nations series in 2014, and while he didn’t see success there, he showed enough potential to be brought into the UFC and then showed rapid improvements, rising up the 155lbs ladder at just 20 years old. A pair of bad losses in 2016 slowed his climb, however, and he took some time off before packing muscle on to return as a sizeable Welterweight.

Since then, Matthews has looked excellent. He hasn’t lost at his new weight and picked up a very impressive victory over the tough Li Jingliang in February. A June win over the overmatched Shinso Anzai didn’t tell us a lot, though, and Martin will arguably represent his toughest test to date.

This is a tricky fight to call, to be frank. Matthews is perhaps the bigger, stronger athlete and he has used his powerful takedowns to outwork opponents like Jingliang and the huge Bojan Velickovic before, but Martin made his name as a stifling grappler and I’d be inclined to give him the striking advantage, given Matthews has looked somewhat stiff on his feet before while Martin was able to knock out LaFlare.

If the fight goes the distance than a rabid crowd in favour of Matthews may well help to sway the judges, but personally I’m betting on Martin finishing things before they get that far. Rocco could be a man to watch in 2019.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin via second round TKO

#4 Suman Mokhtarian vs. Sodiq Yusuff

Nigerian prospect Sodiq Yusuff makes his full UFC debut on Saturday

A battle of UFC newcomers, this Featherweight clash sees TUF veteran Mokhtarian – brother of UFC veteran Ashkan – taking on Nigerian import Yusuff, who is coming off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series this summer. Interestingly enough, prior to his appearance on that show, Yusuff last fought in India’s Brave CF promotion.

Judging on the available footage, raw athleticism seems to be Yusuff’s greatest tool. He’s fast, explosive, carries heavy power in his hands and has enough of a decent wrestling base not to get swamped in a grappling match. He’s clearly very raw as his professional debut came in April 2016, but he’s also got clear potential.

Mokhtarian is a tricky fighter to get a handle on. He didn’t show a lot during his TUF stint as he was eliminated from the Season 27 tournament by Ricky Steele, and while he’s officially unbeaten at 8-0 and his highlight reel makes him look absolutely phenomenal, he’s only fought questionable opposition – of his 7 victims, 4 of them have only ever fought once, against Mokhtarian, and another has two fights to his name – both against Mokhtarian.

Given the unproven nature of both men this could probably go either way, but I’m favouring the more straightforward skills of Yusuff rather than the wild striking and flashy submissions of the Aussie. Expect Mokhtarian to come out swinging – and go out on his shield early on.

The Pick: Yusuff via first round KO

#6 Paul Craig vs. Jim Crute

Scotland's Paul Craig is looking for his third UFC win this weekend

Scotland’s Paul Craig looked like a man to watch when he burst into the UFC with a surprisingly impressive submission win over prospect Henrique da Silva, but a pair of pretty one-sided losses to Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree took his shine away immediately and many labelled him a busted prospect.

This March saw him turn things around in dramatic fashion, though; after taking a beating from Magomed Ankalaev for three solid rounds, ‘Bearjew’ somehow caught the Dagestani in a triangle choke and forced him to tap out with only one second remaining in the fight.

The biggest issue that Craig has had to contend with at the UFC level is a simple lack of natural athleticism. That wasn’t a problem for him on the regional scene or against a fellow lesser athlete in Da Silva, but against more explosive opposition in Pedro, Rountree and Ankalaev, he was clearly found wanting despite pulling out the win against the latter.

Against Aussie newcomer Crute, he could find himself faced with similar difficulties. Crute is inexperienced as he’s only 22 years old and despite being 8-0, he’s only been fighting since 2016. But he makes up for this inexperience with a lot of athleticism and power, and while he’s nowhere near as polished as even a relative rookie like Pedro, he’s still a concussive striker – as we saw in his win on Dana White’s Contender Series.

Does Crute have enough in his arsenal to put away a veteran like Craig, though? It’s a big question mark; Rountree dealt with Craig easily on the feet but few other 205lbers hit quite as hard as him, and against Ankalaev the Scottish fighter managed to hang in there despite absorbing a serious amount of punishment. And on the ground, he’s a highly skilled and dangerous grappler.

If Craig can get Crute to the ground then, this should be his fight, as ‘The Brute’ doesn’t appear to have shown much in the way of grappling chops – at least in the available footage on him – but that’s a big “if” as the Scotsman isn’t an accomplished wrestler. In the end though, I think his UFC experience might be enough to pull him through – but don’t be surprised if Crute takes him out early.

The Pick: Craig via first round submission

#7 The Prelims: Fox Sports 1 card

Longtime veteran Yushin Okami headlines the prelim card

Headlining the FS1 portion of the prelims will be a Welterweight tilt between veteran Yushin Okami and a relative newcomer in Alexey Kunchenko, who debuted with a win over another veteran in Thiago Alves a couple of months ago. In his prime I’d have sided with Okami here; his stifling grappling game would’ve been tailor-made to deal with a relatively low-output kickboxer like Kunchenko, but with years of damage under his belt – including 4 relatively recent TKO losses – I worry that ‘Thunder’ might be shot. Kunchenko via second round TKO is the pick.

Next we’ve got what might be one of the UFC’s final Flyweight bouts between former title challenger Wilson Reis and the ultra-aggressive prospect Ben Nguyen. This one should come down to whether Reis can handle the inevitable early storm from Nguyen and manage to wear him out with his takedowns and grappling; in his prime I’d have taken Reis but at 33 he seems to be slowing down and he’s lost 3 in a row to superior athletes. I’m going with Nguyen via third round TKO.

At Welterweight we’ve got veteran grappler Keita Nakamura taking on Polish fighter Salim Touahri, who hasn’t fought in over a year since a loss to Warlley Alves as a last-minute replacement. Nakamura has actually been fighting for 15 years now, but doesn’t look markedly slower or any less durable than he did when he debuted in the UFC in 2008; I simply can’t pick someone as unproven as Touahri over a grappler of his calibre in good conscience, so I’ll take Nakamura via decision.

Another Flyweight bout sees newcomers Kai Kara-France and Elias Garcia facing off. A veteran of TUF 24, Kara-France showed some potential on the reality show, knocking out Terrence Mitchell before falling to Alexandre Pantoja – a genuine contender in his own right. The Kiwi prospect doesn’t look like a complete fighter yet, but I give him the edge over Garcia, who didn’t show a lot in his UFC debut and is taking this fight on short notice. Kara-France via second round TKO is my pick.

#8 The Prelims: Fight Pass card

Mizuto Hirota faces Christos Giagos on the Fight Pass portion of the show

Headlining the Fight Pass part of the show is a Lightweight fight between Japanese veteran Mizuto Hirota and grappler Christos Giagos. Hirota has been around for years – since 2005 – and it’s nearly a decade since his famous win over Satoru Kitaoka in Sengoku. His performances in the UFC have been spotty at best, but he’s still a solid fighter. Giagos meanwhile was cut from the UFC with a record of 1-2 in 2015, but a run of 4-2 on the regional scene was enough to bring him back. Giagos has always had issues with better grapplers, but I think his athleticism might be enough to take him past the aged Hirota in a likely slower kickboxing-based fight. Giagos by decision is my pick.

Finally, it’s a really strange battle of newcomers at 155lbs as Alex Gorgees takes on Damir Ismagulov. Initially, this should’ve seen Ross Pearson facing Joseph Duffy (!) but injuries to both men resulted in this last-minute fight being thrown together. Gorgees is 6-0, but has only fought on the Australian regional scene, while Ismagulov is a different kind of animal – he’s 16-2, is riding an 11-fight win streak and was the M-1 Global Lightweight champion. This looks like a mismatch to me so I’ll take Ismagulov via first round submission.