UFC Fight Night 142: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa - Predictions and Picks

#3 Tyson Pedro vs. Mauricio Rua

Can former UFC champion Shogun Rua turn back the clock against Tyson Pedro?

Like his fellow Aussie prospect and good friend Tai Tuivasa, it’s been a quick rise through the UFC ranks for Tyson Pedro, largely because, like Tuivasa, he fights in a weight class relatively thin on talent. Pedro debuted with two impressive wins, beating Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig, but failed in his first step up against Ilir Latifi. An easy win over Saparbek Safarov put him back on track, but despite hurting Ovince St. Preux early in their fight, he was eventually reversed and submitted just moments later.

Despite some clear holes in his game, though – a reckless nature that leaves him open and a questionable defensive grappling game – Pedro is an A+ explosive athlete who’s been around the sport for most of his life, given his father was an MMA promoter himself. He’s also a ruthless finisher who has never gone the distance in any of his 7 professional wins.

All of this bodes well for him on Saturday. His opponent, ‘Shogun’, is of course a true legend of MMA. The winner of the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix, the Brazilian then went on to win the UFC Light-Heavyweight title in 2010, and prior to the emergence of Jon Jones, he had a very fair claim on being the best 205lbs fighter in the history of the sport.

The problem for the Brazilian is that we haven’t seen the ‘real’ Shogun now for many years. A combination of age, injuries and damage mean that in 2018 he’s simply a shadow of his former self. Sure, we’ve seen flashes of his old greatness – he was actually on a three-fight win streak until this year – but his July loss to Anthony Smith was painful to watch.

Rua came in looking nowhere close to his best shape, seemed far slower than he’d been even in his March 2017 fight with Gian Villante, and was then taken out by a vicious barrage of strikes in just over a minute. The fight appeared to suggest the Brazilian’s durability is totally gone, and so Pedro will definitely look to take him out in a similar rush on Saturday.

Can he do it? I suspect he can; ‘Shogun’ simply isn’t durable nor quick enough to trade off with his younger opponent these days, and so his only clear path to victory would be to take Pedro down and hunt for a submission. The issue is that he doesn’t have a notable wrestling background and with multiple knee surgeries behind him, he likely won’t have the strength in his takedowns that he did in his prime.

MMA has always been a sport that’s relied on feeding its veterans to its up-and-comers, and this fight isn’t likely to buck the trend. For longtime PRIDE fans it’ll be difficult viewing, but the Aussie crowd should eat it right up.

The Pick: Pedro via first round KO